The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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With a potential pre tax profit of 80-90 million at year end, this makes the net debt 3-4 times profit which is highly acceptable in my book.
* Sell or Strong Sell - that should have read
fact checked? - I posted.. the best part of.
Even if I take your figure net debt is still around 40% of the current market cap.
I did not say it was a Sell or Sring Sell, that is looks about fairly priced.
If you have a different view then fair enough.
From rns
Exceptional trading throughout H1, delivering strong profit growth and accelerated Net debt reduction
Cost savings programme to deliver ahead of £5m target
Announced repayment in aggregate of £120m callable Floating rate notes in FY20/21 reducing interest costs by £6m p.a.
Credit ratings upgrades received from both S&P and Moody's
Outlook
The Group also expects to see a rise in demand for its branded portfolio due to the impact of recently increased government restrictions on eating out. The longevity of this increased demand is likely to be linked to the duration of these new measures, and although the Group faces strong quarter 4 comparatives, it now anticipates Trading profit for the full year will be ahead of current market expectations. Additionally, and following the Group's recent strong progress in both accelerating leverage reduction and receipt of Hovis disposal proceeds, it today announces a new medium target for Net debt/EBITDA of approximately 1.5x.
The next 6 months look very good and the sp should respond to £1.20- £1.50
"Premier Foods have the best part of £400 Million in net debt"
Debt is below £345m ( with £37m from hovis sale) and falling daily, with expectation this will be down to around £300m by end of march 2021. this is around 12p per share difference from your incorrect figure.
It will be good to see your calculation of enterprise value so this can be fact checked.
I can see lots of posts referencing the current multiple,
but this is only half the story re any stock valuation.
Premier Foods have the best part of £400 Million in net debt,
the company also makes relatively large pension contributions.
If you look at enterprise value, they look about fairly priced to me.
@Jed
I think it is about highlighting the kick following the 2008 crash ?
Not yet, but is that a misprint on date because why would anyone now be interested in a 2009 /2010 report.
It's probably made some forecasts which it has hit or missed but it far too late to do anythingabout it now.
I am interested more in 2021 2022 and any takeover plans for pfd.
Friday was ok in the 3p gain but was that a flash in the pan and will the sp go back down again or move up to £1 mark.
Robina this is now a solid stock it will climb to back to all time highs at some point if it keeps to same path. If you read this thread you should have sympathy with some of the long term investors here who have been in for a number of years & its only now PFD is givng them a return on their investment ! Hands up who was stuck in PFD for more than 10 years ! Me for 1 ! But I now feel well rewarded for my long term investment . As I said i now have a modest holding but confident this will return a reasonable profit soon. Divis still a long way off I suggest.
Hi Jed - didn't mean to post twice!
Someone needed to change the narrative on this share on this board - far too many gloomy posts on here.
PFD is in the best place its been for a decade as a recovery share - BOD making real progress in reducing debt and can start to invest in the brands again.
The reason share price saw weakness after the HY results was purely profit taking and some shorters taking advantage of the big price hike since the CV19 market craziness in the Spring when this hit 19p.
I fully expect Q3 results to be excellent and have added a big slug at 86.6p to average up.
Rich
I know, the news is that great it's worth saying it twice. !!!!!!!
There's 25% upside from the current share price to 110p, the year high price.
Q3 results out on 19/1/20 - this covers period Oct, Nov, Dec when UK still in lockdown plus Xmas period for mince pies etc.
We also know that the Winter months are always PFDs best part of year due to product mix.
A no brainer BUY at present IMO for a swing trade to 110-120p or as long term investment as debt is further reduced and eventually a dividend will be reinstated
Rich
There's 25% upside from the current share price to 110p, the year high price.
Q3 results out on 19/1/20 - this covers period Oct, Nov, Dec when UK still in lockdown plus Xmas period for mince pies etc.
We also know that the Winter months are always PFDs best part of year due to product mix.
A no brainer BUY at present IMO for a swing trade to 110-120p or as long term investment as debt is further reduced and eventually a dividend will be reinstated
Rich
I was a long term holder & sold my last batch off PFD near peak of price which I was over the moon but bought back when we had the huge drop hoping for some quick profit. I am happy this will be a solid stock but their is just so much out there where you can get a quick return . If your keeping for your pension a great share but for huge jumps in price & quick profit look else where. I now have a modest holding so will prob keep it for now . But my current p/F just gone crazy this week in a good way .
I was naive enough to buy PFD following the dip from the 105-ish high. It has steadily sunk from here, just like virtually everything I touch. My fear is a return to around 80 and having to hang on for years to get back to breakeven. With such a low P/E I can't see why.
What do you think is going on with this share more to the point. Each day walked down what is going on!
I know its a pain seeing everything else rise. Wait for finals. Wait for dividend, debt pay off or the takeover offer. Look where it hovered for years, 45p. Now 90 p ish. Pensions maybe the sticking point but with the market on the rise, the pension liabolity reduces. Some positives everywhere.
I've also been a long-term shareholder since 2012, I forget all reasons for buying back then. On of the main reason being, food is always needed and with many great brands. Bought shares ranging from £1.20p to 31p.
I'm now in profit since pfd went above 58p. I will be holding on till goes above £1:50. I feel there are lots positive behind this share, fact we had 300% gain in less than 9 months, you are always get pull back. Also especially when all the other dog shares have their day in the sun!
I too have been stuck here longer than i can remember. But being invested so long you must see were we was to were we have come. Regardless of the SP. Thus have the confidence to top up at the prices you did. This clearly isn't for the faint hearted but with management having a clearer understanding of how to deal with the debt. This will no doubt be £1+ next year IMO.
the move downwards is due to vaccine and things going back to normal, but huge sales have been made so far, by the time next results are due I expect to get above 100.00p and debt reduced further. Being in PFD since 2012 has been a nightmare most of the time, never thought we would get above 80.00p, but we have, just have to be patient little longer.
I have held these for about 8 years, then when the results came out I stupidly bought more ar 98p and again at 90p thinking at last we are on the move. Wrong call again.
I shall be in my grave before this gets to £1.50 the way it's going.
Oh, the joys of being a PFD holder. Like you Jed, I haven’t got a bloody clue. It just defies all logic.
After years of waiting we turn the corner and we come out with great results with more sales more profits reduced dbts and everything is going well and blow me down the market goes up by 100+ points and pfd are back to their old ways with sp going back down, just doesn't add up.
December should be a great month and the sp should be well up, so why not ????????????????????????????????????????????
Will be staying at home over christmas this year according to some press reports, now that's a lot of extra food needed and with luck lots of pfd products to see them through.
Also just how many supermarket own lable mince pies does pfd make for them, If I remember last year saw something like 3-5 million mince pies sold and eaton in December, let's hope we can beat that this year with more mince pie exports etc.
All in all it's looking a lot like more profits this year and the sp should respond to £1.20+.
Magog. I worked for Schofield at that time. I agree with what you are saying but I do think that he was unlucky to buy RHM just before the 2008 crash. At the time it was fashionable to carry high debts. I bet in retrospect he wished he had financed it with a rights issue (Pfd SP was around £3 back then), like he did with the Campbell’s acquisition. Hindsight is a wonderful thing though !!