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Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ENOG/morocco-country-entry-wwemlorvwl7rlnj.html
Jimmy,
$8 mcf was the price pre-russian invasion.
Post-invasion, the rate for Moroccan industrial gas has been between $10-$12 and it currently remains above $11 mcf.
Hi Jimmy.
I was about to write to you in relation to Anchois´s future production levels, when you stated the following:
"The anchois development is now looking at producing 200 mmcf per day from 3 production wells."
"The average production rate onshore from thin sands is 1.1 mmcf per day per meter. Anchois 1 has 50 meters, anchois 2 has 150 meters and anchois 3, which is updip from anchois 1 will have at least 150 meters plus the low risk O sands of 47 meters, so getting to 200 mmcf per day production will be relatively straight forward."
I have the following questions:
1- where was this forecast 200 mmcfd production indicated by the company? I couldn´t find it anywhere.
2. according to slide 14 of the presentation, "simulated individual well productivity in the base case is 100 to 200 mmcfd". With 3 producing wells, this is equivalent to a gross production number of 300 to 600 mmcfd. But, in spite of that, when explaining the numbers in slide 8, Duncan said something like "our base case is a production level of 105 mmcfd. In onder to increase that number, we need to develop aditional resources", citing the prospects on that slide (Anchois West, Plie, etc).
Could you please provide some colour on this somewhat contradictory bit of info?
3 I understand that the gross carry by Energean of US$ 850 million until first gas is based on a production level of just 105 mmcfd. If we increase that production goal, we will have to look for aditional funding for the required infraestructure. Is that correct?
Thanks as usual for your contributions Jimmy
B4now,
At the back of the last corporate presentation is an illustration of the reservoirs encountered by anchois 2 and a comparison of sections of those reservoirs to their equivalents onshore.
The anchois development is now looking at producing 200 mmcf per day from 3 production wells.
The average production rate onshore from thin sands is 1.1 mmcf per day per meter. Anchois 1 has 50 meters, anchois 2 has 150 meters and anchois 3, which is updip from anchois 1 will have at least 150 meters plus the low risk O sands of 47 meters, so getting to 200 mmcf per day production will be relatively straight forward.
From a cashflow perspective gas to power with a guaranteed price was previously guided at $8 mcf, below current prices, so this will be a substantial cashflow generator , and the capex is funded.
Jimmy
Have to say when I saw the RNS and it started, Increased holdings I actually thought that Directors had Increased their position, offt silly me. 😏Lets see what the market makes of this one
Another non-sense way of dilapidating shareholder´s money.
More dilution coming, to fund more ventures??
These research notes are less fantasy and more optimistic forecasts meaning much of the value is based on future cashflows - will we make these cashflowis the challenge.
That should help send us back to the 10p target (new share placement price range).
The markets really respect the CHAR management teams clear, considered, forward and finance detailed company path, every RNS slowly enhances our SP and finances.
Even AP's COP 28 visit comments were a revelation: "He was "surprised" at how well they are strategically placed".
Thank goodness we negotiated a free carry, they can go on a spending spree now 😂
Another dodgy deal most likely to line Adonis pockets….I know what I’ll be voting for when the time comes…
Extract from RNS:
“Electricity trading will bring an additional revenue stream into Chariot and further enable Chariot's participation in large renewable projects in Southern Africa.
Benoit Garrivier, CEO of Chariot Transitional Power commented, "We are very pleased to be increasing our exposure to the South African energy market by acquiring this additional stake in Etana. We will not only get an increased split of future revenues, but the electricity trading business unlocks significant renewable generation capacity which we are looking to develop in South Africa. We are tapping into the future growth of an essential market, one that is rapidly transforming and expanding, and we look forward to playing a material role within this together with H1 and other major commercial partners."
Good to see Renewable side making further progress and improving its revenue stream.
... And the same to you Ian Fear!
GP .... I think we will soon have a re-rating. Have a great Christmas!
The last RNs did rerate us, just not the direction we had hoped for
If I could have earned a penny for every “rerating” comment on Chariot alone I’d be a millionaire without owning a single chariot share.
Apologies, I have not read back over previous comments as there are just too many yah boo sucks type comments but it seems to me that Chariot have done their bit and delivered a good deal but the timing co-incided with stronger than usual words from COP28 about fossil fuels. Everything seems to be in place for a re-rating over the bnext few months regardless of the onshore drill. That would be a lovely bonus.
Apparently the negotiations are for a semisub for Q2 next year, those are negotiations though. Long lead items already delivered.
I just don’t see AP accepting a low ball offer for Chariot. Apart from the fact he’s a bit of a narcissist (no offence intended) and wants to be heavily involved in the “transformation” of the countries our “3 Pillars” are involved in, he, like most entrepreneurs is greedy and ruthless, and won’t accept less for something than it’s actually worth.
I’ve said this before on here, but just because a company isn’t valued correctly by the market, doesn’t mean a suitor can just offer 50%, 100% or 200% over MCap and buy it. When buying a company, ALL assets (and particularly in O & G) have a pre determined industry set value, depending on what stage of the exploration/route to production they are at.
I get why people mock analysts views and target prices, but they are using industry standards when they come with these numbers and that’s pretty much, I’d imagine, what AP, or any other CEO would use when deciding if whether an offer is fair value.
Whatever anyone says, Chariot are currently a mile off being valued correctly, and AP knows it imo.
No surprise that it is starting to rise after the falls.Last week when the deal was announced I was looking to see the shares rise to at least 25p rather than going down to 10p.Maybe one of the suiters might come back to buy on the cheap as with its prospects as I said the other day this must be one of the best sale buys currently on offer
The problem with Chariot is they have a history of not doing what they said they would, when they said they would. I will keep an eye on Chariot and could accumulate again but for now focused on another holding I have. Not going to cross ramp it here.
Agree - much better to heed randoms on bulletin boards ..IMHO
Does anyone know when they plan to drill the further well in the east of the Anchois field.?
Another positive research note from Liberum: “Chariot Farm-out secures strong partner.”
https://x.com/Chariot_Energy/status/1735339699424698566?s=20
I topped up more yesterday as I also agree the bottom is in.
GLA
Hi ianfer,
Yes based on chariots 20% share of the 200 mmcf per day production and an $8 mcf gas price used for power generation in Morocco, current price is approx $11 mcf in Morocco
Jimmy
Thanks Jimmy,
Pity the management couldn´t be this sussinct.