We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
EE, "The exit route here is a corporate deal, at some point in the next year or so, on the back of trial results and proof of platforms….."
Indeed...or as bugs bunny would say ...that's it folks !!
Let's get those deals done ✔️
The exit route here is a corporate deal, at some point in the next year or so, on the back of trial results and proof of platforms…..
I imagine the main reason for delisting being brought up is because finances are steady, and trials are properly established and looking favourable. While anything is a possibility, delisting wasn't mentioned even during the financially very tight times and a trial drought. There will be a few who probably wish they'd thought of stirring the pot with this new bête noir to assist with a bit of trading leverage.
Honestly I don't see Scancell delisting anytime soon. Simply because they're too focused on getting the research across the line to worry about the stockmarket. Whilst this isn't great for investor updates, it's great for pushing their progress forward.
I've always thought of Scancell as a bunch of scientists who occasionally remember they're a public company and then instantly forget again and go back to the lab! To be fair, this is such an important piece of research they're working on, I'd rather it was that way round.
I believe the company will stay public and a buyout will be coming when the research is sufficiently de-risked. Could be Q4 or Q1 2025, who knows. But it will land with a bang.
Https://www.cancertherapyadvisor.com/reports/scib1-vaccine-nivo-ipi-melanoma/
Follow up from AACR.
As also mentioned by marcusl2.
Thanks all for the insight on this. Ive noted over the last 18 months or so that several LSE stocks have highlighted their low valuations.
Question regarding institutional investor divestments: These have curtained momentum on share price rises every time over the past few years. What options does Scancell (besides delisting)?
The neoadjuvant arm of the Modi-1 trial opened at the end on July 2023. I would hope that we get some result from this before the end of 2024. This is also the arm of the trial that Lindy said was most important to big pharma, as it would prove tha t Modi-1 works in the way they say it does.
I think any mention of possible update of the ModiFy data has been couched 'in 2024'.
The fact that we are told there will be a 'Clinical Update' of Modi-1, I would not be happy if that update is what we already know from April 2023. That would amount to a deliberate policy to reduce the share price by continuing to disappoint the market and thier shareholders.
Why offer any mention of Modi-1 if it is not a Clinical Update. I therefore propose that it is...
For a modi1 update, I think this news item is the latest indication of when we will be updated.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SCLP/results-for-the-year-ended-30-april-2023-an9qb34t5po41pn.html
"Modi-1 (ModiFY trial)
· Modi-1 has completed dose escalation and safety cohorts of the Phase 1/2 ModiFY trial and is now into expansion cohorts
· Early data from patients receiving Modi-1 as a monotherapy showed good safety and tolerability, with no dose limiting toxicities observed in dose escalation cohorts
· Modi-1 demonstrated encouraging early efficacy in a head and neck cancer patient and in other hard- to-treat cancers such as high grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSOC) and triple negative breast cancer (TNBC)
· Early clinical data with Modi-1 expected to be available in 2024"
It's deliberately vague since Scancell do not know how fast Modi1 recruitment will be in the expansion cohorts. Not a promise, in other words.
And they wonder why the share price is derisory!
Honestly comms needs to be a lot better to keep investors updated.
Appreciate they're busy working on the research but investor relations have always been sub par. Was hoping the new appointees would rectify this but starting to have some doubts. Key opportunities missed.
I say this as a LTH. What they are doing is excellent work but they need to be more open and consistent with their investors.
Hiya Ray
My interest in the London conference is that the description for Scancell’s presentation is “Clinical Update” for both SCIB1 and Modi-1. The last meaningful data we had in Modi-1 was back in February 2023.
Entitled : Encouraging early efficacy data from monotherapy part of ModiFY Phase 1/2 clinical trial.
Now it’s not the Modi-1 +CPi cohort but surely it cannot be ‘here’s some data from over 12 months ago” Can It ?
I dam well hope not because as a shareholder I would be furious.
Thanks Bermuda,
I think the inability to hold in an ISA would be a major factor in deciding whether to hold or sell up.
Chester
I think we just resign ourselves to having data in Q3 for SCIB1 and Q4 for iSCIB1+ with the possibility of further slippage.
I personally don't have a problem with this and will consider topping up on SP weakness.
Remember the statisticians say 90% chance of achieving the 70% response rate. I would guess that Lindy consulted mathematician ex-colleagues at Nottingham UNI to arrive at this figure.
Thankyou Bermudashorts
For this post I have C4X disappointment and not sure what to do.
Have some in ISA as well I guess they will have to transfer out to ordinary acc .
Looks even cheaper today but the 3.9% decline has a 3.1% spread.
We only need to wait a week or so and we can get straight back on the ‘ what if’s and maybe’s ‘.
Immune-Oncology Summit Europe.
London 23rd to 25th
Clinical Updates on SCIB 1 and Modi 1.
Could be another possible maybe !!
Guessing when the SP positive Data will land is not for the faint hearted 🫣
Ruck,
Sorry have only just seen your 12.07. As square10 has said retail investors have a choice - either sell at the best price they can get or keep holding. Both Redx and C4X are putting in place a matched bargain facility run by JP Jenkins in order to help investors buy/sell after delisting. Essentially you let them know how many shares and the price and they'll try to match the trade for you. However you can't deal directly with them, it has to be via your broker and there is no guarantee the facility will remain in place in the long run.
If Scancell were to go down this route there would be a third option and that would be simply to vote against the delisting.
I watched the Sarah Danson video. At the end (from about the 12th minute) it's about the question of vaccinations "off the shelf" or "personalised".
My impression was that she is very positive on this topic and that she favours the "personalised" option a little. In the comparison she said "even cleverer" when she talked about the personalised vaccination.
#ICYMI, Scancell Ltd CEO Lindy Durrant presented data at American Association for Cancer Research on its open-label Phase 2 SCOPE trial investigating its cancer vaccine, SCIB1 in advanced melanoma, as part of the #AACR ‘Cancer Vaccines: Ready for Prime Time?’ clinical trials symposium.
The session covered progress from a number of other innovative clinical stage cancer vaccines including follow up data from the BioNTech mRNA vaccine, which reported T cells could still be detected at the three-year follow-up point. This is highly encouraging for the cancer vaccine space, particularly as SCIB1 has demonstrated an 85% response rate among 13 first-line advanced melanoma patients.
🔎 Learn more about SCOPE: https://lnkd.in/eivcrTxX
#cancervaccine #melanoma #AACR24 #immunooncology #immunotherapy
If I may- you can either sell in the market-price will be much lower as we've seen from both companies mentioned, or hold shares in the private company where liquidity is very low indeed, hence most sell. I do however believe this is very unlikely for Scancell, at least for the next couple of years
Bermuda,
IF Scancell were to go down the delist and privatise path, what would happen to current private investors. Would they be made to sell and if so, at what price?
Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oae33WdkLx8&list=PLF1-XapOV1fePHKA-Yd3PMIHwlr82NY9V&index=3&pp=iAQB
1/2
I wanted to comment on Jouang1's post last night. C4X and Redx's delistings are really significant events and everyone who is long on any AIM bio, not just Scancell should be asking themselves the same question. Although it's popular because it's what we'd like to believe, simply stating that it won't happen to Scancell because it runs a tighter ship and has more chances of deals is not the answer IMO.
C4X and Redx are two of the most successful bios on AIM when it comes to deals. They both have signed several deals with big pharma worth up to $2.5 billion and have already banked nearly $115m in milestones and up front payments. Before anyone leaps to Scancell's defence, they are both operating in a very different space to Scancell. They create best in class small molecules - much easier to cut a deal if your developing a molecule that is superior to an existing FDA approved product than if your going after completely novel and unproven targets. So both companies have a proven track record of creating commercially attractive molecules and the expectation of further deals. C4X is sitting on a pile of cash and Redx have a cash runway to 2025 but with additional near term milestones expected.
Whether to remain listed on AIM boils down to a simple cost/benefit analysis and both bios believe the scales have tipped in favour of being run as a private company where they say they'll have access to a much wider pool of specialist investors. Valuations on AIM mean that they'd either have to accept massive dilution with every round of funding or they'll have to reduce costs by scaling back on R&D thereby hampering development of their pipeline. The fact that the redemption date for the Redx CLNs held by Redmile and Sofinnova is fast approaching (Aug 2024) and that they both have a seat on the Redx board must surely have been a factor in the timing of this decision and worth noting this line from their RNS:-
'the limited liquidity in the Ordinary Shares makes it challenging for Shareholders of any size to acquire additional Ordinary Shares or dispose of any Ordinary Shares in the market at an attractive price'
2/2
Having said all of that, the original question was whether Scancell differs from Redx and I think it does for the following reasons:-
1) Scancell are funded through to 2025 inflection points. Crucially the redemption date for Redmile's CLNs isn't until the back end of 2025 and they can't convert before this date. This means that Scancell can afford to wait and see whether market conditions improve
2) Scancell have nearly 930m shares in issue and the bulk are held by retail investors. C4X and Redx have just 252m and 389m shares in issue with a much lower percentage of these held by retail investors. This matters because in order to delist a minimum of 75% of votes are needed and I'm not sure Scancell could achieve that as most retail investors would likely vote against delisting.
3) Both C4X and Redx are further down the deal making road and this combined with the space they are operating in may make it easier for them to raise cash as a private company thus tipping the scales a bit further towards delisting
For all of the above reasons and simply a gut feeling that I can't imagine Lindy Durrant going down that route I think Scancell's situation is different. For sure though Redmile will want to see an exit route here. They may agree to extend the CLNs further and there are other possible scenarios (NASDAQ listing, sale etc.) but one way or another 2025 really is an important year for Scancell.
Apologies for the long post but we focus so much on the science on this bb and it's easy to overlook or underestimate the commercial/financial/corporate issues and bios delisting and the poor performance of the AIM market is something that we should be discussing in an open and balanced way. All IMO of course.