The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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https://www.*************.com/views/38946/video-premaitha-presents-and-grilled-at-uk-investor-city-forum
Yes, it should STOP, but just beforehand, please ask if it was said and if its true. If so, how?
My word I didn’t realize there were three people doing the same job, that really is taking the ****! The Board certainly needs to be held accountable at the AGM. And this whole leaking information to that idiot Tom Winnifrith has to stop as well.
Perhaps you could get comment regarding TW's statement that at the 16th get together AR was quoted as saying further funding would not be required? How? Bearing in mind clear indications from recent Results and common sense requirement on overall situation, finances and revenue projections?
Sorry typo:
Meant to say "However for Premaitha what they would push more for in Europe is to have these test samples shipped to the lab in Manchester or their European diagnostic partners central laboratory and have the test performed there in the interim" I would have to check with Hardman but this has a different fee structure then localised testing which from memory is slightly more profitable per test but could be wrong.
Hopefully there is material news before the AGM.
When the suggestion was raised at the Investor presentation that their would be a debt for equity
swap and warrants would be exercised is what would be the exercisable price?
My understanding in aggregate Thermo Fisher now hold warrants over 95,688,706 ordinary shares, representing circa 20% of the company on a fully diluted basis. These warrants are exercisable at different levels. My understanding of the TMO Warrants is that the following have been issued.
Date: No of shares @ Executable Price
Dec-15: 20,325,204 @ 24.6
Sep-16 17,094,018 @ 11.7
Mar-17 16,913,319 @ 11.825
Jul-17 28,938,797 @ 10.725
Feb-18 12,000,000 @ 5.77
For these my understanding is that TMO paid the following:
- Jul 2017: £2:4m
- Jul 2017: £5:0m
- Mar 2017: £2.0m
- Sep 2016: £4.0m
- Dec 2015: £5.0m
In total £18.4m but I could be wrong. These warrants are only exercisable for 8 years and so I wonder how many of these warrants would be exercisable and at what price. It is a bit above my head whether TMO can exercise warrants in a piece meal fashion or have to do it one go.
The other question that this does pose is whether if all warrants were to be exercised and given that the Directors hold circa 30% of the shares whether this combined TMO + BoD holding would represent over 50% of the shares in circulation and whether they would then have to make a formal offer under Article 9 for a TO.
I don't think people would wait for the new Illumina CE-IVD solution as ultimately one cannot await one's pregnancy. Mother's will ask for the best test and go to the private clinic supplying that or the test which is supplied via their private insurance or NHS. What I would expect is that labs would not invest in TMO sequencers knowing this would be phased out. So this model would work on a lease basis. However for Premaitha what they would push more for in Europe is
I really don't agree with the stated growth projections so I still hope that numbers directly from the business can be issued via Hardman etc as this is now just causing havoc. Even if the much debated additional funding is required which the Chairman is saying is not and very publicly the sp seems too depressed.
Regardless however I share many frustrations of the BB that the BoD and Management team need to be heavily trimmed and to restore shareholder value in the immediate term. Appointing a Group Commercial Director (Hayden Jeffreys) - and giving him 10m share options @ 10p - to support Chief Commercial Officer (Nick Claxton) and Chief Business Officer ( Peter Collins) and then being told via Finncap that growth for the two years 2020 - 2021 will slow to 12.5% per year from 45%+ per year is taking the piss frankly
Hoping for a better next week and closing the door on this last month.
I note the first loan of £5m from TF is not due for repayment until between December 2022 and December 2023 and the rest not until December 2023.
The finncap report may be out of date or produced by an unreliable broker with an agenda but it definitely suggests we will need c£3m of funding next financial year. This is because we will be spending £3m on R&D and £3.5m in capex in this financial year and next. Most of this will be probably be on the new Illumina test and contributing to existing customers’ platform migration, but also on the development of other new products. I agree that the revenue projections seem light (how can the forecasts for India be only £0.75m in 2021?) but you have to factor in there will probably be low growth in UK/EU as customers wait for the new Illumina solution. I think additional funding next year sounds credible so we urgently need confirmation of that. I note it says in the report that we plan to discuss the TF funding structure post-settlement. Hopefully that means they will look to convert their warrants and not that they will seek repayment! I presume there is an agreement that they don’t need to be repaid until at least after 2021. I am thinking of going to the AGM on Thursday so we should all try and put together a list of questions for anybody who definitely decides to go. Apart from those issues mentioned above I would like to know why we need a Chief Business Officer and a Commercial Director. I will think of a few more in the coming days.
Bakky, The way I read this is - the 1.5m r&d are included in the 9.6m number .... costs falling to 9.6m .. within this 1.5m ... 'Operating costs are expected to fall from £11.8m to c.£9.6m in FY 2019 as a result of no litigation expenses. Within this, R&D expenses are expected to rise to c.£1.5m in FY 2019 and 2020 ‘
only from Finncap.
'Operating costs are expected to fall from £11.8m to c.£9.6m in FY 2019 as a result of
no litigation expenses. Within this, R&D expenses are expected to rise to c.£1.5m in FY
2019 and 2020 to reflect the cost of developing an Illumina-compatible test as well as
developing new product opportunities. We expect this to remain stable through the
transition period with increased investment being made in FY 2021'.
From the annual report, litigation costs were more like £2.7m ..
"Litigation expense of £2,693k (2017:£388k) including litigation costs awarded against the Company in a
Court decision in January 2018 plus other litigation expenses and provision increases (see note 22)"
Where did you get the £1.5m development figure from?
I meant the approx. £2.2m saving on legals, £1.5m of the saving will be spent on the new Illumina product.
My understanding is that the £3.0m fundraising was to finance the settlement with Illumina (up to £1m) as well as to finance the development requirements for the Illumina CE-IVD test
most of any savings will be gobbled up with R&D and costs towards the Illumina product.
If I buy any more, the men in white coats carrying straitjackets will come and find me ...
It seems crazy we're back here in the 8-9p range with the recent news ... the costs should be significantly lower now that litigation is settled and the BOD can focus on growing the business instead of talking to lawyers!
Hopefully within a few months the current SP will look like an absolute bargain!
Sadly yes. To put in perspective even setting aside the Finncap target price of current sp is below the 9 p per share that the 76m shares were issued for YourGene. So puts things in perspective if you think the news delivered since then (new CEO, litigation resolution, new products, new contracts). I do agree with Florida though that this time next week things will be looking very different here hopefully.
Yet another buying opportunity ... :-)
Given that we are now 15% discounted from the placing pricing which was itself discounted by 19% and nearly 50% off where we were one month ago this is getting bit silly again. Especially when Finncap's report which most long time commenters have questioned also states that cash in bank with current placing will be £1.7m next March. The positive statements of the CEO and Chairman suggest that significant news will be released by AGM for relaunch of company under new branding so current sentiment seems overtly negative.
I mean you have to think why TMO has put in £20m already into this company and Illumina fought a nearly 4 year legal battle with it if sales growth figures are to be believed. So there does seem to be some overtly negative sentiment (deliberate or not) which hopefully the company will be able to revise with their own forecasts and news next week
Just to touch on some of the points raised:
They were showing growth across all regions last year and YTD. No specific mention was made of India but they did make reference to reduced profit margins on the APAC business, which I would have thought is a reference to them.
The CEO, via video, hinted that they are looking at doing more diversification and that the recent This deal should be the first of many.
They said that the breakeven statement referred to the NIPT testing business, rather than the company as a whole.
Cheers. If it makes you feel better there was a few typos in my response.
The 7% revenue growth increase was for 2020E where they increased their sales projections from £11.1m to £11.9m. This compares to upwards of £30m in Hardman's Nov '17 forecast and TW's post placing Bearcast of £18m so pretty pessismitic for reasons given. Also a huge variance between the revenue forecasts and impact of litigation. So if the litigation has consistently been knocking up to 50% off targets how can its lifting only yield 7% more revenue growth with more products and strategic opportunities? The interesting thing is that Finncap actually reduced their sales forecasts post settlement for the current year by 4% from £8.8m to £8.5m. So actually according to them we will be worse off for settling.
Lots if numbers but hopefully people will pause and consider some of the queries raised as to the valuation. I still do expect some further material news by AGM to coincide with the company's relaunch. Then again trading balance is not agreeing with my past opinions.
Bit telling that Premaitha made the link for this a bit difficult to find rather than just issuing it via a RNS like Hardman's but time will tell.
let's just hope they can over deliver on those figures, especially India?
I hate you Flipper, you just posted virtually what I was about to say. Well, hate is a bit of a strong word, lets say "envy" instead. Well at least envy your typing speed. Anyway, this is what I was going to say.
Fincap a company obviously originated from the a**hole of a Walrus has the audacity to make projections for future growth based upon 7p per share, which is the value they set for the company as an institutional investment, laughable. What's even worse, taking into account growth for the last 6 months alone was 45%, above expectation of 40%, total for the full financial year 2018 expected minimum 90%, Fincapp expects growth to slow down for some inexplicable reason the following year 2019 down to 45% (£11.9m) and expects growth for the next two years 2020 - 2021 at 12.5% per year.
Because of the settlement, the potential market for growth has just widend by approx 500% and Fincapp suggests our growth rate should go down. Not by any small amount, more like 300%. It's laughable. I thought at first Hemo was pulling our leg, but evidently it's true. God help us with this company working for us.
Thanks for the referral.
Finncap suggests that with the additional £3.0m raised in the last placing they estimate that cash at 31 March 2019 will be c.£1.7m with the company becoming EBITDA-positive in FY 2020 with a 3-year revenue CAGR of 28%. They currently have a target price of 16p.
It seems a very cautious revenue growth revision following the litigation settlement where they've only upgraded their estimates for 2021E plus 7% to £15m. This is after the new oncology product and if you see the further new NIPT products in the Annual Report that they're expecting to launch plus new markets. To put in contrast Hardman in their November '17 (pre High Court judgement) report expected 2019E revenues to be £24m. So although I can understand the impairment to this year's revenues it is a bit difficult to understand the future years slow growth with more products especially given TW statements that he expects "to see FY19/20 revenue to ramp up to £18m with break even achieved, and for FY20/21, revenue to be £30m (with Illumina entries and new deals / products / categories) and OP of £6-7m."
It would be good if at the AGM they ironed out all the differing conflicting statements as getting a bit confusing as the AR public comments on growth and funding seem at odds
This particular share has sucked some life out of my SIPP. 2021 for drawdown? Fortunately I'm not relying on it!
There are sales and profit projections available now through finncap, see RNS Reach of 12th October that refers you to a portal to get their research. Sales current year £8.5m, next year £11.9m, 2021 £15m, full break even not expected until after 2021. Funding of c.£4m needed next year, not sure if will be equity or further debt. Seems we are still in bed with finncap although they totally messed up the placing.