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Wet,
I meant did he think the 90 day rates would affect the current price- I understand that everything that happens will affect the eventual sale price. As far as 8-9 years, yes I was being a bit facetious. My point however, (and I understand this doesn't mean anything to anyone but me) is on this as an investment. I'm not convinced we will get $.30 much less $.60 (and again,not based on any valuations of the potential resources but more about who is interested and who can exert influence on the price) but even at $1 this might not have been a good investment. A double or even a triple when you've held 15-20 years is not great when you bought in at $.20 or $.30 or more. I'm also not even a little convinced that we will sell within 24 months. So as far as I'm concerned, although we've seen some encouraging news, this is still a questionable investment even when it sells.
Rsacas, why do you insist in embarrassing yourself! The payday has always been just around the corner.
I repeat:
POQ can’t control geology.
POQ DOES control investor marketing, interviews in financial media, participation in conferences, general public relations. In this regard, our CEO failed us.
Apaprently according to your summary of Falcons history you have chosen one of the worst moments to leave.
Or you want to drive the SP down intentionally.
Good luck.
I've tried to put a sock in it, but I'll keep it as brief as I can.
Falcon is well known for the Mako asset, it went nowhere. South Africa is to say the least is uninviting, but it has gone nowhere.
The Beetaloo showed potential, and still demonstrates profound potential, but was challenging. It was farmed to Hess who exhibited nothing but conventional exploration interests, they spent a lot of money looking in the wrong direction, the product was nothing. Zero. Falcon then demanded that Origin 'delineate' and explore across incredible scale on Kyalla and Velkerri targets. Objectively the result was nothing.
I began looking at this basin 14 years ago and the target was as obvious then as it is now. Yes, multiple crisis have plagued the play, but I'm lost on how Falcon has advanced the case. Truly lost.
There's a great tale of a virtual genius who traded a paper clip for a house through a number of transactions.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_red_paperclip
You know where I'm going with this, Falcon has steadily and consistently traded shareholder value from the potential value as the planet's most valuable single shale position (see Sheffield engagement) into a vanishingly small filament of interest.
The recent pre-mature election (PME in short) to further farm down Falcon's interest for the foreseeable future which includes the likely potential build to 1 bcf/d is, for me, is the final chapter in Falcon holding the premise of investment.
Circus provides great entertainment, indeed there is a balance between performer, viewer and the promoter.
The only one here who benefits is the latter. Sold, done, out.
LongKnife: The IP90 flow rate does in fact have a lot to do with pricing when this asset sells as it gives an early indication of the decline curve and what these next two wells will produce. I don't know where you come up with 8-9 years to sell much less .60 at the end of that extended term; hopefully we are just seeing the sarcastic side of you :^) Falcon has stated its goal to sell by the end of 2025 - POQ has given us a hopeful 18-24 months' time frame. I would look for some offers being made after these next two wells are flow tested - we may not be privy to some of those early offers but with the Beetaloo heating up they should be forthcoming.
From my 'green bars' appearing and the responses of some, I would guess Camelot must be posting some of his typical POQ bashing remarks - that's about all that guy offers which is what earned him a filter block on my account. Camelot seems stuck in that mode with nothing better to offer - why he even sticks around is beside me. Is he bigones reincarnated? Naw - bigones has a better understanding of the industry. This guy has nothing to contribute yet feels the need to be heard, just a downside of a public board.
Down to nitpicking semantics? You are a real asset to the board.
It definitely sounds like you have the inside track here. Especially when you say " the price he negotiated" and not what he may negotiate. Are you telling us that POQ already has a deal done and you have knowledge of same?
James- and do you think that will do anything for the share price? Falcon, are you ok then if POQ negotiates a buyout at say$.60 /share in 8-9 years? Would that have been a good investment for you? What would you consider a success?
Ditto, to tdafalcon. My feelings exactly. I figure we are now about +/- 23 days before we receive notice on the IP90 Day Flow Rate results. GLTA
I could care less how "slick" of an Irishman he is. The day-to-day value of this stock, has been crap under all that have led us for 15 years. What matters, is how we finish. We will be sold, and the price he has negotiated is all that matters to me. Bashing him for what you feel he isn't doing to make us all feel warm and fuzzy, has no purpose other than adding negative opinion on this board. This asset isn't going away, and those involved in making the Beetaloo spit out wealth will continue to seek a fortune. We are in an excellent position.
Of the Leprechaun....I assume he is still hiding out in his office rather than talking with institutional investors....or the media....which is what he should have been doing in my opinion following the news of the stellar results. This guy really knows how to let down the retail crowd and gets paid well for doing it. He really is a slick little Irishman as someone else pointed out.
Falcon Oil & Gas (FOG.L, 7.15p, £75m) has elected to reduce its participation interest in the proposed Shenandoah South Pilot Project from 22.5% to 5%, significantly reducing Falcon’s cost to participate in the Pilot. Despite only having to pay 5% of the costs of the two wells to be drilled in 2024 as part of the Pilot, Falcon will retain a 10% working interest in c.72,000 acres around the Pilot and a 22.5% working interest in the remaining 4.52m acres. Falcon also retains the benefit of a further A$16.67m of gross carry that will be used to offset against the costs of the Pilot in 2024, thereby further reducing Falcon’s cost to participate.
Yeah but none of that reflects what we see. There was talk about 6-7k acres not 25k acres. There are less than 200 25k lots in the 4.5m. I'm not sure there will be buy backs either. The question is how long will it take them to work their way through the estimated 138 wells. While FOG won't be a producer a potential buyer will care about their ability to par take in the short to medium term as the window for oil and gas globally is closing due to the green initiative. I'd say we are fine but realistically I think being able to buy into these 2 wells at 22.5% would be the ideal scenario and once we buy into the first well in the 25k acres at 22.5% we have the option to go in at 22.5% for every well in that 25,000 acres thereafter. At 5% we are limited to 5% or less for the next 138 wells if they stay in this area. If a big producer buys us out they may look to do a checkerboard deal with the JV over the whole 4.5m acres to allow them get moving at pace and not be tethered to the pace of the JV.
The participation agreement was a master stroke to be fair as it gives us options and stops us from being forced to sell early because we can't pony up the funds I'm not sure if dropping to 5% would have been better than doing a raise though. Only time will tell.
In the Investor meet 18th Jan about 17:30 mins in POQ mentions the option out and the fact that FOG could potentially buy back in if the well was a success- he estimates cost to buy back in at 3 times the initial drill cost but he is not precise. What he does say is that there are 718units across the Beetaloo and though missing out on 1 might seem a lot, it is relatively small in the grand scheme of things.
https://falconoilandgas.com/video-presentations/
look at his answer about 17mins 30s into the questions for 18th Jan 2023
Conserving cash and not diluting is a very good strategic move- the market has marked us down but you can't trade FOG shares as the risk of an opportunistic bid is increasing. Day to day you just have to ignore the small sells and accept that the big picture is only seen when the company gets sold.
For what it’s worth I tried buying another 500,000 shares yesterday and only got 88,500 shares. Do you think POQ was competing with me? A little morning humor there!
POQ has done many good things and been well-compensated. BUT, he’s ignored for too long and now too late my suggested reverse split that would have instantly made FOG investable for smaller institutions and in the U.S., investors precluded due to a price below $5-10, depending on individual firm requirements.
Fortunately, there’s a chance God is looking out for us or BS or others may buy us for a pittance.
Frustrating but perhaps worth adding few more shares. POODS
You are correct bonjourno. I am not sure what the exact cost is, but I believe it is fairly steep. However, any deep pockets buyer of Falcon's 22.5% interest in the Beetaloo will have that option going forward, and in the interim Falcon continues to husband it's remaining cash balance.
Marshmill -- unfortunately my old adage is still in effect and you are correct -- as we have very few new buyers and lots of tired old ones like myself that can't hang on forever -- LOL. Therefore -- you should get a chance to pick up a few added shares lower -- but if ever there was a time when I wouldn't want to be out of Falcon (in case of a wild card buyer stepping in unexpectedly) -- this is getting very close to that time -- (hopefully -- LOL).
Just in case Smallfish doesn't repost (here) his comments from the Tamboran HotCopper bulletin board regarding today's Sentinel satellite flare shot -- it is worth taking a quick read over on HotCopper. Smallfish made some interesting comments regarding the overall slightly larger flare size of the flare from this weeks satellite shot.
There is not a single reason to buy Falcon at the current price. The SP will go lower, and I'll buy when it does. So many other stocks that offer much more upside right now than our old and lame bird. I just cannot see why anybody would buy Falcons right now. Happy Easter Holidays!
Hi newtofo- isn't here an option for FOG to buy back into any wells which it has not fully participated in ? I recall POQ saying that they could do this - admittedly at a higher cost- but if the wells are a success then any future buyer just pays a multiple of the initial drill cost and regains the 22.5% or whatever they decide. Key here is the repurchase is based on drill cost not on the drill success.
Strategically this ability to decide participation at the outset with the ability to buy back in is a major benefit which the market currently just does not see. Any future buyers will see this and FOG is saved from currently diluting at such low levels.
This is my concern here. Not that this was the wrong choice as I didn't see much else that could be done other than massive dilution. My concern is that there is no reason to buy Falcon at this point that I can see. There is little revenue that could be coming in and we know that proving up the acreage doesn't seem to move the share price. The only exception I see are if someone can come in, buy out Falcon and then add their cash to the development of the S2 & S3 wells at the full 22.5pct.
Cheers Newt.
Newtofo March 25th. This is very worrisome news out of Tamboran today -- as Falcon will now have a tiny 5% interest in the next 138 wells to be drilled around the 51,000 acres surrounding the SSH2 Pilot Program well pad. Those next 138 wells could take five years to get completed and during that 5 years Falcon will get next to nothing in revenue for five long years.
What the heck is going on that POQ is basically giving up on the Beetaloo for that many years -- as I for one can't remotely think about hanging on for another five years to see any chance of revenue or a buyer. It is very doubtful that POQ will ever find a buyer in the next 18 to 24 months -- as any buyer won't get anything more than 5% of the gas until those 138 new wells have all been drilled -- sheesh.
Newtofo march 28th, The brilliance of this decision (IMHO) to reduce Falcon's actual risk on these next two 3 km horizontals -- is keeping Falcon's dilution to a minimum while Sheffield and Riddle take on 95% of the risk on what is an untested new well pad 4 km away. There is still a fair degree of risk on what are going to be the most expensive wells drilled to date in the Beetaloo -- especially if Riddle is going to drill blind without doing the 3D seismic program first -- so letting BS and Riddle pay up 95% of the expenses seems to make great sense.
This kind of rhetoric has been going on FOREVER!
Fleurs -- Falcon's interest in the 51,000 acres that surrounds the new SSH2 and SSH3 well pad will now be down to 5%.
When you include the remaining $3.75 million in Aussie funds that remains from the deal POQ negotiated on the Origin sale to Tamboran -- Falcon may only need to contribute another $1.25 million on those next two extremely expensive 3 km horizontals. Falcon still owns 22.5% of the 20,000 acres that surrounds the SSH1 well site as Falcon paid it's full share on the current SSH1 one km horizontal.
Taken together -- Falcon will have approximately a 10% interest in the entire 70,000 acre blocks that covers both the SSH1 and the SSH2/H3 well sites.
It is worth remembering that this 70,000 acre block (that Falcon will still have a 10% interest in) is only a tiny fraction of the total 4.2 million acres that are covered by Falcon's three permits, and only 7% of the deep blue CORE area of one million acres -- leaving 930,000 acres in the deep area.
The brilliance of this decision (IMHO) to reduce Falcon's actual risk on these next two 3 km horizontals -- is keeping Falcon's dilution to a minimum while Sheffield and Riddle take on 95% of the risk on what is an untested new well pad 4 km away. There is still a fair degree of risk on what are going to be the most expensive wells drilled to date in the Beetaloo -- especially if Riddle is going to drill blind without doing the 3D seismic program first -- so letting BS and Riddle pay up 95% of the expenses seems to make great sense.
Looks great, that should knock a couple of % off the share price. For clarification do we now own 5% of the clear view and not 22.5% , as part of the recent deal.
POQ busier on LINKEDIN of late. Hopefully take the message to a wider audience