.. banks are not very good predicting rates.. both currency and interest.. unfortunately this is in the hands of politicians and central banks also controlled by politicians. even brexit is controlled by politicians.. the rest of us are just bystanders..
.. it is not always a good move to follow into every trend.. referring to apple pay which is very proprietary and only works with apple.. when apple does business they want the whole pie.. same with microsoft.. besides.. technology has a very short cycle.. big investments may become a big waste of money..
"Furthermore, Morgan Stanley forecasts the euro against sterling at 0.76 at the year end and at 0.72 by the end of 2018. At the time of writing, euro/GBP stood at 0.86. The bank's forecasts are based on interest rate differentials and political uncertainty across the euro area."
However, I would add that I would be very suprised to see euro/sterling exchange rate at these levels by year end...
Son, do you have an old tin bucket somewhere. Can you fill it with water and add some ice and then proceed to dunk your head in it! We have reached an apocalyptic scenario. Implication are huge and it is a loose-loose outcome for all concerned not a win-win.
Way of the mark, these banks....generally clueless and 18 months behind the curve with their forecasting. Euro/Stg is fair value around 0.9325. Downward pressure on Stg to 1.18 against USD and upward pressure on Eur to 1.10 against USD. The odd pull back in Stg while Brexit is in play might see Euro/Stg touch 0.875 but this will be transitional. Meanwhile the games being played out on the AIB IPO and affecting the Bkir SP will come to nought! AIB will be offered no higher than a 10% premium to Bkir. So at current valuations AIB has approx 40% to fall or Bkir has 40% to rise. Take your pick....line of least resistance! Can the brokers con the fund managers into owning an overvalued AIB (without them breaking for Bkir) or do we all meet in the middle, NAVs at 1.3. Bkir at 0.30 and AIB at ???? (I don't follow them much). me, I would be out buying more Bkir!!!
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