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I'm going to start propping it up from tomorrow :-)
Just in time for closing of first half books. Assuming an increased dividend announcement of 0.05p, the buyback has saved around £5.8m each half year going forward. Which is compounded as dividends increase. Plus a slight strengthening of balance sheet for all metrics impacted by shares in issue, eps etc.
Remains to be seen what effect buyback ending has on sp, as false market in Wimps shares now ended.
Nothing to prop the price up now. GLA
Yesterdays buybacks took the overall spend to just over £149m of the £150m total so all else being equal I'd expect today to be the last day of the buybacks.
34 percent down over last 6 months without even being in recession,
However this is addressed the trend is downward , FTSE has not been dragged down s much as some of the other worlds markets .
Approaching covid lows , quid inbound
Taverham, I agree with a lot of what you said. I don't know if the recession will be mild or not but I think it won't be bad for the property market. People have recency bias, so they expect the next recession to look like the last but that's almost never the case. These days people pass strict affordability checks, including at much higher rates. For my mortgage I had to pass affordability check at 5-6% rates. We're nowhere near that and like you said unlikely to get there.
In addition, the majority of people have decent size deposits and fixed mortgages, many for 5 years or more. They won't feel the pain for another couple of years and by then the high inflation might be gone and rates might drop again. Gone are the days of interest only mortgages given to people with no means of ever repaying.
In the US and Europe things are even more stable, as they have 30 year fixed mortgages, and those are fixed at very low rates. So those two massive markets are unlikely to drag us down.
Basically, that's a lot of words to say that there will be very few forced sellers this time, except perhaps buy-to-let landlords in case tenants can't pay their rent. I think recently about 14% of properties sold were to buy-to-let landlords. That's the biggest risk IMO. But that only kicks in, if we have a severe recession with lots of unemployment and will affect a small part of the market.
Markets will be down for a couple of years, we are a long way from the bottom.. GLA
This will not be a crash like 2008 banking crisis more a methodical slow tortured decline in the SP throughout the FTSE 100 and beyond.
We had years of easy money which was never going to last forever , i would not be surprised to see this around a pound in a couple months
The 2022 slow down will be mild imv - why ? Well for a start our government would bankrupt the UK if they put up interest rates by more than another 1% because of interest on government debt. That situation is almost world wide. Secondly we have no banking crisis so the banks will keep lending and thirdly there is huge pent up demand which will need to be satisfied before prices fall. All of that should enable a 'soft landing' in the housing market.
[ Moreover I am hoping/expecting the EU will do a deal with Russia on land for gas this autumn , stopping the war and rebuilding confidence.]
I think it's dropped because of the increasing inevitability of 2008 repeating itself. Not only will the demand not be enough to keep prices rising, it'll not be enough to stop prices from crashing, as in 1988 and 2008. No more boom and bust is a reassuring mantra, but it's rubbish in reality. As a chippy in 2008, Wimpey were throwing money at us one day, mothballing all their sites and on the edge of bankruptcy the next.
I plan on keeping topping up at these low prices get a decent holding and let the dividents roll in
Hi dimi
Yes a new generation of home buyers, the thinking of which I can’t associate myself with.
It’s a must have society with bigger things and must have now.
I really can’t see how today’s situation will pan out but some sort of correction will happen, how big is hard to say. The cost of housing can’t continue at this rate, it will force new houses to become smaller.
1970s slump was difficult to get mortgages and properties didn’t sell.
1981/82 recession nothing was built , no jobs.
1991 high inflation saw the start of negative equity
2008 saw dramatic shock in the housing market
2021/22 covid and post boom, high oil prices.
I’m hopeful for a soft landing but just doesn’t look like it
I do think TW provides a good buying opportunity now , despite the Special Dividend probably being lost or forgotten about for a while its still a good divi at these prices.My biggest concern here is not the rather meagre interest rate rises which I do honestly think are being over catastrophized by the media for political reasons, but really Gove and his possible plans to tax etc builders like , Oilers and banks in the past to fund the economy free of charge for HMG so they look good in the eyes of the media..
Hi Bamps
Everything going okay here I only wish I didn’t have this house going through and a wedding to pay for!
There’s bargains galore at the moment!
Anyway I hope you are well and yes it does seem strange out there with the shortage of workers, I am still waiting to see when the infrastructure starts, it’s been neglected for years and all the schools, hospitals, prisons are bursting at the seems.
Interesting time’s ahead!
Good luck and keep up the good work over at Ggp
All the best Ben
Sorry, I meant to say 7 years to cut the debt in half. Rule of 72: 72/10 = 7
As someone who has recently taken a huge mortgage on a new built (not TW unfortunately) here's my reasoning. You fix the mortgage as long as possible (5 years in my case) and you let inflation eat it away. Interest on the mortgage is 1.95% and I was expecting 3-4% inflation not 10% but I'll take that. If inflation stays this high (hopefully not for society's sake) for 10 years, that cuts my mortgage debt in half basically!
Hi Ben
I’ve never seen a market like this, I’ve been out of management now 12 years and I’m still getting offers of work .
The thought of all the HSE stuff puts me right off no matter how much they offer.
Dealing with all you lot swapping sites would do my head in, my nephew is having a torrid time finishing houses that are not up to scratch and they’re still selling. He can’t get people to finish things properly.
I’ve not been in this position, I’ve worked through 4 recessions and it’s obvious another one is coming I can’t understand why people are still taking the risk of huge mortgages.
Keep going mate but don’t let it get to you.
Hi jay
It’s quite scary out there, those house prices!
I don’t think it’s brickie’s and Chippy’s buying them houses, so it goes to show we must be underpaid! Lol
I really don’t know where the money is coming from, but we can only think the young ones are not scared of debt.
Still selling well in East Midlands and £1 a brick I can live with that:))))
But as the old saying goes grab it while you can .
I hope you are doing well and this sp has to change soon.
Good luck and happy trading
Ben
Hi Ben im hearing some firms are paying barons £1 a brick !!! far too much for a line monkey in my opinion lol rates are still going up and up and lads are always wanting more its gotta come to a head soon and then attitudes of some is gonna change believe. have you noticed a slump in sales ? on sites we have been on for DW they been selling 6 or so a weekend and you arent talking starter homes i just dont know where everyone is getting the money for £600k homes not everyone is a chippy on £150k a year lol , this share and many in the building sector should not be so low when sales are so good . have a good weekend as monday we go again
Bellway and Crest Nicholson report strong sales despite impact of cost inflation
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/14/new-uk-homes-building-firms-bellway-crest-nicholson-sales
has increased their shorts on the 8th of June. I guess they knew it would drop 10p in the next 5 days.
I agree with you both regarding trades pay and lack of benefits.
I’m not a tradesman I am in project management.
Some materials are cheap and is completely false as the material fails/needs repairing at a greater cost - why not just use a decent product in the 1st place!?
Regarding kit houses - I believe the Canadians and north Europeans build a lot of these? These guys must be the experts perhaps we could do a lot of learning from them and how they do things.
Following on from that Ben, 4bed house at say £400k for a chippy is about £3k , no holiday pay or sick pay and then sit at home if its raining or the materials dont turn up or your next fix is nt ready , oh and dont forget to put some money away in a rip off private pension as your employer wont be contributing , yes why dont we have more youngsters joining the industry???
Hi spurs
I am glad we on the same wavelength, the thing which also gets to me , is when people say the tradesmen get paid too much!
I am not sure which trade you are in , but I am a bricklayer and it works out we get about £10k to build a £400k house, labour only!
That’s about 2.5%
Have you also found they are trying to use cheaper materials?
It seems to me they pay more attention on flower beds and walk ways than the product!
All in my view
And good luck all and speak freely because it’s our investment as well as there’s
Interesting comments regarding the kit houses.
Yes when it all goes wrong, then it is the builders fault. The clowns we have making laws do not have a clue, irrespective whom is in power.