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Looks like some have found the rabbit hole.. go a little deeper for some true gems though..
Indeed asp2014, and Marty has also just liked two articles on AD Ports Group. Including one explaining their expansion plans:
"Captain Mohamed Juma Al Shamisi, our Managing Director and Group CEO, believes that our strategic focus for 2024 will be to leverage our cutting-edge infrastructure and advanced fleet for further dynamic growth both regionally and internationally."
Our new big cheese might be quiet publicly, but he occasionally pushes the 'like' button on interesting LinkedIn articles:
*****
More than 80 per cent of China’s iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil but Beijing wants to de-risk that supply. And the West African nation, along with other countries including Guinea, Liberia, Cameroon and Congo-Brazzaville, are the key to making that happen.....
*****
The whole article is on his easily findable linkedin profile.
Thanks Matski for the good cheer 😁. A super week and good luck to everyone!
Meanwhile over on BBC1 at ZIOC teatime……..
4.30pm. (Vision) Blue Peter - Special guest Andrew Trahar tries his hand at investor relations by making a slurry pipe out of unbranded F***y liquid bottles and glueing together a scale model of a container port using cardboard from unbranded K******s cereal packets not made in China.
5.10pm Newsdround - Beardozer presents specially-curated news items to depress the younger market share.
5.30 Tongs of Praise [featuring the Baowu Steel calypso quartet]
6.00. Six o’clock News with Ex-Trader
6.30 Regional News with Ex-Trader in all regions, everything, everywhere all at once.
7.00pm A Place in the Sun - Nibj dials in from his dinghy. Beardozer buttdials in from an overcast Wendyland.
7.30 Room 101 - Guest DANNYBAREY banishes his pet hates.
8.00pm – Film Premiere – Your Place or Mine (2023)
10.30pm – The Sky at Night - To mark the month of the RNS, Starbright holds a séance with ZIOC shareholder Sir Patrick Moore to mine and divine an astronomical SP for 2024.
11.00pm Early Closedown [subsidised by the BBC with your licence fee & additional overseas aid from the PRC].
Your morning BBC Radio 4 Schedule (ZIOC special)
04.43 (Xi Jinping) Thought for the Day
04.45 The Shipping Forecast (extended version sponsored by Container Port Weekly)
05.30 Farming Today - Presented by AllThatGuff - ATG gets up early to explore why methane and other troughs of hot air are bad for your Ethereum.
06.00 Today programme - Currant Affairs & News - Hosted by Ex-trader
Live from Congo-Brazzaville. ET examines why raisin prices in CB are responsible for currant shortfalls and why traders are turning to sour grapes in a bid to retain market share in a fizzy pop market. ET takes the temperature on the street (hot) and obtains an exclusive interview with local psychic Mystique Megawatte about predictions for hydro-electric prospects and helping the national football team mitigate national budget deficits. Yawn… and other news.
09.00 Start the Week - Presenters find out why special guest Jiving feels more optimistic at the start of a four-day working week.
10.00 You and Yours – An (un)Wellness Industry investigation. Guest Beardozer discusses why he has swapped his ZIOC shares for stocks of iron-ore supplements to combat Inflationary Bowel Syndrome. [listener advisory warning]
11.00 From your own correspondents – Board optimists Veteran10, Mitch984 and AlwaysHoping host. Eddsy reports on recent aviation traffic of note. Driving tops up again. Shaun86 corresponds and 4Kandles trials a new version of Solitaire. Marcusg71 and Shrewdude67 fill in for Ex-Trader.
12.00 In Our Time - Melvyn Bragg gets a major migraine meeting Emeritus professor of everything - Minor Miner; discusses Wittgenstein’s theory of epistemological incommensurability and struggles with the theoretical publication of MM’s seminal theory playbook, the ‘Unified Theory of Everything’ theory.
12.30 Gardeners’ Question Time live from Congo-Brazzaville. Presenter TBA
Biggus Dickus
What have the Romans ever done for us!
Valeas quam optime.
.." a group of Congolese athletes being stuck in a transient hotel in Africa and the local football team having to bail them out.."
You've clearly no awareness of the importance of the 'diables rouges' ...and the passionate following they have in local media.
The Romans understood the importance of 'bread and circuses' even if you don't.
Have a nice day.
PS Depeches front page headline today :
.."WATER AND ELECTRICITY
The government is concerned
Faced with recurrent complaints from the population about the disruption in the supply of drinking water and electricity in Brazzaville, Prime Minister, Anatole Collinet Makosso, on 29 March visit to the facilities of companies La Congolaise des eaux (LCDE) and Energie électrique du Congo (E²C) to find out more about the real causes of this situation..."
More details on page 3
Page 2 leads with the National Assembly being tasked with waiving parliamentary immunity for an MP who's complained about a breakdown in law and order and manifest public corruption :
.." the MP for Moungali I sits on the Defence and Security Committee of the National Assembly. He was detained by the security services for having openly denounced the growing insecurity observed in recent years in the country's major cities, and the Minister of the Interior and the law enforcement agencies, whom he feels are not up to the task
the task assigned to them.
In a telephone exchange, he also criticised the mismanagement of public affairs, in particular financial mismanagement of the country, marked, he said, by "the massive misappropriation of public funds by the elite and administrative officials, and the non-payment of parliamentary emoluments of members of parliament in recent months".
These audios caused a buzz on social networks..."
It's interesting because Depeches is owned by Jean-Paul Pigasse .."A friend of Denis Sassou N'guesso, the President of Congo-Brazzaville, Jean-Paul Pigasse runs a press agency specialising in Central Africa and publishes "Les Dépêches de Brazzaville". "We are one of the only press agencies active in the entire region", he explains. Opponents prefer to refer to him as the "spokesman" for the Congolese government..."
https://www.leparisien.fr/faits-divers/la-justice-enquete-sur-l-ami-du-president-congolais-
"It's complicated"
GLA
Ex, may I remind you and all reading your the poster who thought it worthy of informing the board of a group of Congolese athletes being stuck in a transient hotel in Africa and the local football team having to bail them out was indicative of the regime :-) .I am sure the powers that be who are going through the updated FS have taken that diplomatic incident into consideration and have factored that into any deal ;-). Really is that what you have become, trawling though news to find any miniscule negative!
Your days on here are numbered, you are irrelevant and it does not matter what you post anymore. This has moved on so stop posting nonsense and get with the programme. There's a good chap.
Eddsy from 27 March : .."I suggest you go back to the drawing board, if you think posting spurious in country news is productive and worthy of your time!.."
Eddsy today : .." Great post MM, I too follow the in country politics, especially the Chinese. .."
Well, it IS April 1st...and a classic example of 'confirmation bias' in action....
;->
GLA (including you, Eddsy)
I am glad you are feeling better, Jiving :)
GL all
Might we be witnessing our dream scenario of competing bidders? After all it is decision time for all concerned, once the Strategic Partner deal is signed the project is spoken for. Key points: the 2024 FS will be complete in April; the economics of the project are way better than Simandou; the ore quality is exactly the type required for the key 'green steel' of the future; & critically we are ready to roll with mining licence, environmental permit & mining convention (years of work) all in place.
The ME bidders may have been first off the mark due to their speedy decision making, but the Chinese & Japanese have a way larger need for quality ore for their vast steel industries. The Chinese clearly are on the inside track with their Nguesso relationship, existing projects & lead role in the whole EPC process - they also have the power MOU, maybe they want the Port MOU as well to have total control! The November presentation seemed targeted at them, here is the lead point on P11 :
"Zanaga benefits from a supportive Government, actively encouraging mining-related investment,
experiencing significant engagement from China – the largest consumer of iron ore globally"
Atg, if a deaf person listened to David Attenborough narrating.. they would still understand what is going on. Oddly, you still don’t seem to know what’s going on..
Great post MM, I too follow the in country politics, especially the Chinese. The Chinese ambassador for a good while has been pushing, progressing and guiding the Congolese along the path of mutual interest. The coordinated ramping of relations between the two countries In the past few months has gone to new levels. Especially with Big D’s hour long interview with the Chinese recently.
I am expecting big things this month especially from the Chinese.
Thanks again.
You know on TV wildlife programs, they film various bits of animal behaviour, then the make up a narrative to illustrate some outcome..
This needs a post on here.. MM posted on the other bb
That phrase from the RNS: '...a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner...'
Why 'near final' not 'final'? The answer must be something outside of the EPC's hands. Given that securing African iron ore is a Chinese State-directed imperative (and the amounts involved so big (think 'Simandou')) then the Chinese EPC 'final report' is very likely waiting on official sanction. That official sanction is going to be the official thumbs up from CPP representative(s) for the country andits investment conditions.
So what did the Chinese Ambassador and 5 of her colleagues do last week? She toured the country, travelled the length of the RN1 (Chinese built), and visited 4 Chinese-Congo projects which significantly included a copper and a zinc mine.
At the end of it Mde l'Ambassadrice pronounced that, 'La coopération sino-congolaise aura un #avenir encore plus radieux ' 'The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
> Sounds like the country got her thumbs up and, I reckon, that near-final report can now be signed off.
LI Yan @LIYanChine Ambassadeur extraordinaire et plénipotentiaire de la République populaire de Chine en République du Congo
5:40 PM · Mar 27, 2024
The first copper plate and the first zinc ingot in the history of Congo (Brazzaville)! Today I visited the Soremi Mine invested and operated by a Chinese company. This is not only a modern highland for Congo’s mining industry, but also the cradle of local professional and technical talents.
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773042314380018067
7:29 PM · Mar 28, 2024
It lasted 4 days and visited 4 China-Congo cooperation projects in three provinces of Congo! From Mengo to Lifoula, I drove more than 500 kilometers through the Mayombe forest, and I completed the entire National Highway 1. ( )
I would like to pay tribute to the friends who participated in the construction of Road No. 1 and the cooperation between China and Congo in various fields! The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773432229911498891
Hi Jiving,
Thanks for this overview of the likely 'runners and riders', which I share.
I'd add - as participants, if unlikely lead players - India and (maybe) Oman.
India , most likely via Jindal Group, which has been looking at African iron ore assets for some time, most recently Friedland's Zogota in Guinea ; has African operational experience (it took over Vale's Motize/Mozambique coal+ rail operations); and has an existing 'green ore ' requirement in Oman from its $ 3Bn expansion plan for its Jindal Shadeed subsidiary
See https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/12/04/Jindal-Shadeed-Group-plans-3-bln-green-steel-plant-in-Oman-for-auto-products, for details and which shows the markets for its intended production, planned for 2026.
I'm not clear how much weight to attribute to the 'India Inc' concept - some see India as overtaking/displacing China as investment destination (given politics, geography and demographics) - but Essar Group has major 'green steel' investments planned in Saudi and Arcelor Mittal, Tata Steel and Vedanta, to name but 3 , are all presumably potential consumers of ZIOC's premium product.
Oman is more of an outlier, but - apart from its indirect interest in the Jindal steel project and potential direct interest via Vale's mooted Omani green steel mega-hub- is AIUI also the largest (16%) investor in Kore Potash, which may be interested in due course in accessing AD Port's (expanded) facilities at Pointe Noire.
Meanwhile, circling back to Abu Dhabi (whether SWF or just 'AbuDhabi Inc') , I'm sure you're right to refer to the Mopani copper mine deal as 'keynote' : not only did AbuDhabi's IRH/IHC crash a party with the Chinese original preferred bidder, but -apart from buying out GLENs equity stake - they also assumed part the associated Zambian debt to GLEN, see
https://www.agbi.com/industry/2024/03/abu-dhabis-irh-completes-zambian-copper-mining-deal/
And IHC isn't lacking in financial muscle
https://www.agbi.com/finance/2024/01/abu-dhabis-ihc-sets-up-holding-entity-with-27bn-in-assets/
Lots of intriguing possibilities - and that's apart from whatever MM is teasing atm....;->
GLA and ATB
Is the last tranche going to be bought in one go...higher price?
From RNS..
"Shard Capital Partners LLP commented:
"The Zanaga story is one we are committed to and have been following closely for some time. It is without doubt a world class iron ore project, with a fantastic team and we look forward to working with them to unlock what we see as major potential value for shareholders."
## from their website ..
"Shard Capital Advisors offers a one-stop shop solution for high and ultra high net worth clients, primarily from the Middle East, Africa, Turkey and Asia. It is regulated by the OAR-G, which is supervised by FINMA.
Based in Geneva, its multi-lingual and diversely experienced team provides tailor-made services aimed at empowering clients define and pursue their visions of financial success as well as preserve their wealth."
UAE. We know the UAE has made a big play for RoC with their official visits with Denis, the trade negotiations & the 30 year port concession deal with AD Ports. We have long suspected, with their own green steel plans, that they were likely participants in the Zanaga development - but were they pipped at the post by the Saudis last autumn? They have also just done a keynote deal with Glencore for the Mopani copper mine, whereby they essentially bought out Glen's equity stake in the mine but left Glen with the offtake rights. A dream deal for Glen releasing their capital but retaining offtake. Whilst UAE will want the Zanaga offtake for their own steel interests, possibly they could be more flexible & allow any excess to requirements to be marketed via Glen rather than traded directly as Manara intended? However given the delicate state of relations with MBS & the Saudis, potentially they could be wary of taking the stake & incurring MBS's wrath - other than that they seem a perfect match. Also its not like the likely price tag of $600-800m, for a 20% primary stake as Strategic Investor, would raise eyebrows in the UAE. Overall it would make the same sense for them & us, as Manara taking the role, but they also simultaneously bring the Port MOU & take 'care' of the Nguesso's.
Whilst the Saudis appear a very good fit - they state they only want 20% of projects & they pay generous prices for stakes - their buy-in of Vale's nickel/copper interests was reportedly at a premium to nav. But of course there are other serious contenders for Strategic Investor, these are my Big 3.
China. Was always going to be a prime candidate. Even with Simandou they will only cover a fraction of their demand & it remains a strategic imperative of Xi & the CCP to increase their ownership/control of key resources. That Chinese contractors & sub contractors would be responsible for the critical construction activities & the power solution makes this a win/win for Chinese overall control & recycling investment money directly back to China Inc. Simandou is a way way more expensive & riskier project, with likely poorer quality ore - so why put all your eggs in one West African basket (-case)? Issues for them might be they will want more than a 20% primary stake, but potentially they might be able to purchase Glencore's 40+% or indeed make a buyout offer & seek 100% Chinese control of all aspects of the project.
Japan. The Japanese are in an even worse position vis resources than the Chinese. It has been Govt policy for a long long time to encourage direct Japanese ownership of stakes in key resources. Nippon Steel, a central part of Japan Inc, is particularly active in this area & recently joined with Glencore in the buyout of Teck's coking coal interests. Looking at their statements they are still well under their stated target ownership in iron ore & their entire strategy is geared towards 'green steel'. Interesting that Denis junior was in Tokyo at the end of last year discussing the need for Japanese representation on the ground in RoC. Due to its strategic status, Nippon Steel is able to act quickly with the full support of the Japanese Govt & banks, and they have recently done a major deal with Glencore & would likely easily use all offtake internally & not need to trade any surplus.
Hi Extrader
Your first point is my sole concern & your interpretation exactly matches my own - both my initial reaction & next day! The confident, self assured tone accompanying the ZIOC releases where they gave target dates for the MOU's seems to have disappeared and been replaced by the non date specific "interest"; which was the weak language used in early 2023 not late 2023. Similarly AT twice signalled over Xmas/NY that management were in Saudi, that together with the management 'October scramble' to get their option/swap shares & Marty's appointment in Nov were all supporting signs they felt the key Strategic Investor was 'in the bag' & v likely was Manara. Similarly if something has gone wrong at the last moment, where do we look for the culprit - of course at the Glencore traders & their offtake obsession. At the time I viewed Bob Wilt's keynote speech at the FMF in January of Saudi's clear stance on offtake control, as being specifically aimed at Glencore - now I do x10.
Everything else I am frankly indifferent to, relative to the key issue, its background noise.
Hi all,
Away on my travels during the excitement, now playing catch-up.
Thoughts :
-Initially disappointed at missing deadlines (self-imposed), a rod for their own back. I wonder whether they had a Strategic Investor lined up and there was a set-back ? From the timing, my WAG would be Saudi ...with GLEN jibbing at Manara's offtake demand (?).
No worries, Elphick speaks at the end of 'interest from strategic investorS_...'
- as the original FS timeline suggested and others have pointed out, the SI (s) would want to see the latest numbers before committing. I take 'peer' review to be ZIOC's own 'tame consultants' to appraise the Chinese work...
- as to whether ZIOC are short-staffed or not, surely the recently-incentivised management team should be burning the midnight oil, if needed ?!
If things are as advanced as we believe, most of the work will be sub-contracted or awaiting input/enquiries from the counterparts, no?
- appointment of Shard Capital as joint broker I see as a 'necessary evil' - term used advisedly ;-<
The first 2 x Tranches raised funds at avge 6.9p - not exciting. The Third Tranche is at ZIOC's discretion, it'll be interesting to see when/if they take it up . The GLEN loan extension runs for 4 months to July, ie a month beyond the 'snapshot'/test-date interims, hopefully long enough to cater for all eventualities.
- as to 'informing the market'/reassuring PI's , it seems unlikely ZIOC'll oblige. Why should they ? (a) if there's still jockeying around, they won't want to tip their hand/indicate a preference/alienate someone (anyone) unnecessarily or inadvertently.....apart from anything else, think of the potential media circus.....and (b) I don't think PI's figure largely if at all- in their calculations: we're an irrelevance at best and a nuisance/inconvenience at worst...
All AFAICS,
GLA and ATB