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Out of left field AW could resign now, vote no and campaign for others to do likewise in support of shareholders.......... LOL!
Makes a mockery of the wonderful premium our BOD negotiated for us.
Homebuilder SPs showing good progress today .
Just listened to Boris. If every young person wanting to buy their own home will be helped wouldn’t you think that builders would be rubbing their hands at the prospect of incentives and tax cuts. What a shambles and I mean TEF not Boris.
One of the main reasons for TEF missing the mark last financial year was their over optimistic view on sales where I guess the BODS are guided by their Sales Director on figures,
It became apparent before the completion of Bermondsey Works that things had changed with unsold apartments cluttering up the portal on completion
FY 19 was always going to be under the cosh and a potential interruption in the beanstalk growth
Last year I guess it was the SD that sanctioned the ill fated sales launch to Asia on Gallions Point which only produced a handful of sales.I guess it didnt help that JLL.'s HK office was telling potential buyers that the location was a little far out!
The recent pre mini launch of the last phase at City North in Savills and JLL Hong Kong offices where the apartments seemed well over priced produced just a handful of sales
"Campbell has agreed with the board of Telford Homes that there is no long-term need for his role and that he would prefer to look for other opportunities."
Just a little hard to believe that the company's constant mantra has always been that there is a disconnect between supply and demandon housing across all sectors that suddenly they are going to abandon a sales stream which has served them well and produced high margins
Plenty of hard graft sales work to do in getting the remaining apartments away at Gallions and City North plus some fresh launches to come
Does seem that the SD role is even more important today in a challenging market not diminished
Staying long and strong !!!!!
Still expect an industry player to appear apart from the Oxbridge Maths boffs. What a coup for one of the majors. Immediate JV with both Invesco and Aviva which they can roll out BTR nationwide on their land portfolios
Maybe a backdoor to a market listing for Mount Anvil and theJVs too Plenty of sites to hotwire into BTR The possibilties are endless !!!
I think perhaps the best way to look at the Octopus sale is that they may have been risk averse. i.e. they may have been more concerned about the deal being voted down (with resulting shareprice hit) than they were excited about the possibility of a counter-offer - back to that symmetrical probability distribution again.
The whole of the property.property investment and construction industry is stampeding into BTR.
The talk is of little else
TEF offer a rare instant entry at the top gate Factor in London as a safeharbour venue for Far Eastern and US investment .Matth -Its difficult not to see that at least 1 party would be looking to crash through the door
They've done it through CFD though, so presumably nowhere near 100% of the cost of the underlying shares tied up.
Seems a strange way to tie up money for a good few months (assuming it will be a while before the sale is finalised and everything gets paid) for a slim chance at a counter offer or a more likely potential (albeit slight) loss! Think this is just me hoping they know something about another offer coming in
Although given the price they've paid (0.25p over the offer price) they would only be down £20k or so if the deal goes through at 350p. So perhaps they are more likely to accept the offer if there's nothing else on the table and they see it as just a cheap but out-of-the-money option play (although still with the risk for them in that scenario that it does get voted down even if they support it).
I read the same into that Bloomberg article, matth. But that wasn't a "final" offer by the look of it and so could be sweetened to win approval.
I would assume SG think fair value is more than 350p, but here they can't lever up the price as I understand the takeover code rules, unless there is a counter-offer. I have to think Octopus thought a counter-offer was unlikely. So does SG know something that Octopus doesn't, or is SG prepared to dig in for the slightly longer-haul and vote the deal down (probably taking a near-term hit on the shareprice) in order to promote a more rigorous sale process over the following months? My earlier assumption was that an arb player wouldn't take that risk and would vote the deal through if that was all that was on the table come decision time. Now I'm not so sure, given the size of the position they've taken.
And it appears sand grove voted in favor of a takeover at 57.6p per share as opposed to the 55p initially agreed, are we to assume they would be against this current offer?
We will never know what went on behind closed doors but I tend to agree this is a fair comment.
Considering everything seemed to fall apart in just over 3 months after the 50million prediction there had to be some serious lapses in management. My own view for what it is worth is site selection, or at least the assumptions made wrt planning and expected permissions. Couple that with lower margins on private sales and we have the short term ( now they are saying short and medium in the scheme documents) dip. Delayed profit is still profit but somehow It seems to have disappeared. Yet still the BOD maintain their 17p dividend prediction which I would be quite happy with.
I suspect, and just IMO, AW who has been looking to leave since as long as I can remember, just hasn’t got the fight left in him and as far as the remaining directors they have lucrative salaries and benefits irrespective. I do feel however that with others now looking over the accounts, either tire kicking or with serious intent, that some recent decisions and announcements will not look too clever. I also suspect that the abilities of the BOD’s and their reputations will not have been greatly enhanced for future careers. Certainly as far as I am concerned this is not in my interest and shareholders of companies where they may be later employed would do well to consider the situation here. How on earth can a company with a 1.5 billion pipeline, the most expertise of brownfield sites in London, contacts and relationships be sold at a knockdown price and without even waiting to see how Brexit pans out.
Flying off on holiday now so sketchy internet. I will be voting no at this price as I am confident in the future. If Boris ( God help us) gets a deal things will improve and property will soar. If he doesn’t the pound on foreign exchanges will be so weak that investment in the UK will be irresistibly cheap. UK companies will be very sought after and oh yes, property will soar.
Just need the rest of you to assist my no vote with the other 23.61%........
Appears something similar played out on Ophir recently.
"Hedge fund Sand Grove Capital Management LLP has almost tripled its stake to more than 17 percent, according to regulatory filings."
"Medco’s CEO Lorato said the shift in holdings isn’t surprising. “These are normal changes, the one you see, in a situation like this -- for example arbitrage funds that would like to take a position. These are what I’d call event-driven funds,” he said."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/ophir-is-said-to-face-investor-opposition-threatening-medco-deal
11% position for Sand Grove, by CFD! "The firm employs a traditional, European focused event driven strategy"
And it was Sand Grove who bought them. That is interesting.
Having been on the premises for 5 minutes Good old Jerry voting for an early exit having added little to the party since his arrival!.Maybe if had arrived hitting the floor running with a few more deals they wouldnt be painting such a dismal picture to support the sell out
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/photos/the-funniest-photos-of-boris-johnson/boris-johnson-hemlet/
Benny Hill in the hot seat now.
Nothing would please me more than to see TEF in play with a higher bid but if the market thought this likely,the SP would be higher than it is at the moment.Personally though,I would like to see that a lot closer to 500p.
Thanks exdividend, that sounds right now I think about it. So would they come back with a better offer in 6 months time? Everything else being equal, I think they probably would, but of course everything else won't be equal in 6 months time (notably we will be past 31st October), so I think those arb players who might be driving the price today are likely to be factoring in a "failure" value (i.e. no counter-bid and CBRE offer gets rejected) which is where they think the shareprice would go to in the very near-term following rejection.
It’s 6 months.
terrace - I'm going to keep pushing back on your assertion about the market assessment of counter-bid. The "market" has to factor in 2 probabilities, that of the bid succeeding if there is no counter-bid and that of a counterbid.
Easier with a worked example, so suppose the probabilities are as follows:
25% chance of counterbid, fair value shareprice if that happens 400p
50% chance of bid succeeding without counterbid, fair value 350p
25% chance of bid failing without counterbid, fair value 300p
The overall fair value is 350p with those probabilities and outcomes, yet the market would be assigning a 25% probability to counter-bid. You cannot make statements (IMO) about how the market is valuing the likelihood of a counterbid unless you are factoring in credible downside as well as upside outcomes.
Cant see why a UK home builder would be interested in TEF when they could earn a better return building more homes than they would earn from owning TEF.