George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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If the unpaid invoices had been paid - what would we have spent it on anyway ?
We have no debt to offset against.
Perhaps the BoD could have awarded themselves some bonus payments for having seen us safely thro’ Covid, and paying down our debt for us ??
If I were anything other than a simple share trader I’d be interested in all this CRaP 🫶
"And don't double count the arrears and the CRP as most of the arrears is CRP."
No double counting, if that point in the future when invoicing for an already invoiced but unpaid cost becomes necessary, it could simply be deducted from the past unpaid invoice(s)
Best Regards ValueS
GKP/MOL can never recover more costs than have been incurred. But they get a very slight offsetting advantage via the R Factor not rising so much until, of course, the arrears are paid. But this is trivial versus not being paid. So always model the CRP net of invoices else you risk double counting the CRP and arrears which are mostly CRP.
ValueS - to clarify, by "no" I meant no the R Factor would not be higher than 1.18. The R Factor is not rising because we haven't been paid the massive arrears but that is separate from working out what costs can be invoiced. Model each separately. And don't double count the arrears and the CRP as most of the arrears is CRP.
Why would you open pipe line officially and pay more for the oil when you can get it for 25 dollars a barrel. that the bit that concerns me
So, the unpaid invoice cannot be included in the total payments, understood. But the costs that are invoiced has to be deducted from the cost pool!
Marvellous!
Seplat. The GROSS CRP as of Dec 31 was $224 million. GKP's share was 80% $179 million. The current enterprise value of GKP is $228 million. (SP 106.7p, ex rate 1.274, FD shares o/s 230.9). So one might say the CRP is 78% of GKP's current enterprise value.
"No. The R Factor is based on actual costs incurred and actual receipts."
No. The R Factor is based on actual costs incurred and actual receipts. So if we aren't being paid the arrears, but still incurring costs, the R factor will fall (or not rise). This will help current invoices marginally. 1.18 was exactly what I have in my model. But the cost pool still can't be invoiced twice.
I appreciate you helping PUTUP with his lacking mathematical skills. Bless
"So model the CRP net of the receivables to estimate future invoices."
If that is the case then the R factor would be higher than 1.18! And all invoices after an unpaid invoice would be wrong!
The R Factor is calculated as a ratio of total payments to cumulative costs. I.e. to what actually happened regardless of whether invoices get paid or not.
Best Regards ValueS
"Cost recovery pool is now at 120% of current enterprise value 🤑💵 "
LOL someone struggles with mathematics
Yes. But can't be double-counted in valuation and can't be invoiced twice. So model the CRP net of the receivables to estimate future invoices. Very important re: Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"
Cost recovery pool is now at 120% of current enterprise value 🤑💵
If Brent continues to trade around $90/bbl I wouldn't be surprised if GKP could negotiate its selling price up to $33/bbl. Operating leverage is exceptional coming from low levels, and it would elevate yearly free cash flow from $60m to $90m.🚀
Never retesting 90p again.
"Gross. Of which $153 million has already been invoiced"
But remain unpaid. Hence, they are still in the pool...awaiting payment!
"3) Cost Recovery Pool = $224 m!! 🤑 "
Gross. Of which $153 million has already been invoiced in the past due invoices. Pro forma net CRP to GKP at end December 2023 $57 million (19p per share)
Please keep the noise down until April...
Cheers,
On slide 19 these important parameters are given (as of 31/12/2023) :
1) R factor = 1.18
2) Contractor share of profit = 27.3%
3) Cost Recovery Pool = $224 m!! 🤑
Best Regards ValueS
Shares approaching flat post conference call. Good sign!
Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"
Note also that internally they model export restart in Q4. Will have to push back my assumption which is much earlier.
(aa) can't even get the basic numbers right...
No surprises in the announcement. Terrible results but expected given circumstances. Management doing a great job minimising costs and keeping the field ticking over, continuing to tread water. Little to say about contract ratification and pipeline reopening. Current cash flows still flattered by historical cost recovery. Good that payables normalisation is now complete.
Ho hum.
(aa ) seems sensible
Pity ( a ) wasn’t right as the price seems to have stabilised and ( in the absence of (a ) pessimists having any shares to sell for 90p I’ll forget the day trade idea for now and hold what I have in the expectation that (aa ) is right and time will tell.
Patience Required
🆗 so now u have to accounts, 1 -ve with a single a and 1 +ve with 2 a!
Amazing results under the circumstances. Now trading at 4x Free Cash Flow without any exports i.e. the risk is to the upside from here, not to the downside.
2024 Guidance: 43,000 - 45,000 bopd
2024 Revenue : $11-12m/month
2024 Net operating costs, net capex and other g&a: $6m/month
2024 FCF: $55-60m
EV/FCF: ~ 4x
Mcap: $300m
Net Cash: $82m
Enterprise Value: $220m
Now have the capability to pay $40-50m in dividends per year if they choose to i.e. 13-16% dividend yield on through-earnings.
Production:
2023-01: 49,100 bopd
2023-03: 53,700 bopd (ATH)
2023-03: ITP Closed
2023-05: 0 bopd
2023-07: 4,900 bopd
2023-08: 11,700 bopd
2023-08: 23,100 bopd
2023-09: 28,800 bopd
2023-10: 33,000 bopd
2023-12: 37.200 bopd
2024-02: 38,400 bopd
2024-02: 43,000 bopd
When the pipeline opens, the earnings will be absolutely massive.