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Now the Kurdish federal judge has resigned calling out ‘hostile rulings’ against Erbil.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2546991-erbil-baghdad-relations-complicate-further
Yes should have written "hoped" instead of "believed". We all know every time an Iraqi politician or minister for oil makes some comments it proves to be false. We know he's lying when his lips move.
However the Iraqi people do deserve much better than this. They are in effect sleep walking into an abyss, and as some of the biggest planetary polluters they actually have the most to loose. I'm no tree hugger coming from a full career in the oil industry, but when I hear true statements coming from experts in Greenland, like "Ice melt used to be 30M tons a day, now its 30M an hr", its really time to take serious notice. As for Iraqis, its hard to see a way out of the "death spiral of poverty" for the majority, while the embezzlers luxuriate in undeserved riches.
Belgrano go back and read my posts from this time last year and see if we all believed that would be the end of it
As ICG didn’t send several monthlies last year - as they suspected they were not going to pay the population - the tribal chiefs in Erbil didn’t miss out on pilferring from the agreed 12.7%…. they just pocketted our due payments.
Its as easy as that !
Within the three main factions, Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish, each has their own hostile sub factions, the resulting central government ( if they manage to form one) is an ineffective coalition.
There is further opportunity for disagreement when it comes to federalism versus centralism, not only with openly conflicting interpretations of the Constitution but also with mundane tasks.
Add in long-standing nepotism and corruption and where we are now should come as no surprise to any investor who did their DD before buying.
Two examples currently in focus are the “cost per barrel” and the salaries being held back.
The way the FGI arrived at their initial figure for the costs was bizzare and IMO reflects the capabilities of the people employed. There is a very hard hitting quote, from an unnamed industry source, circulating about the quality of the work done arriving at that figure.
Under a federalist system it’s the role of the KRG to sort the salaries out after the previously agreed budget share has been sent from the centre. On the other hand the centralists want to control how the money is spent and will only send it when they are happy blatant opportunities for corruption have been removed…
The real nub of the matter is that the Kurds in N. Iraq have never been happy being part, albeit a semi-autonomous part, of Greater Iraq, and have always seen themselves as being something special.
This "Kurds are something special" feeling can also be seen in Turkey and Iran, where large Kurdish minorities have been causing trouble for decades. The campaign waged by Saddam Hussein against the Kurds cost them many lives, but also won them many friends in the West. Problem is that on this admiration and "friendship" was then built a righteous belief of entitlement - witness the independence referendum fiasco.
All of this of course has arisen because of the poorly drafted Iraq Constitution, in which the US took insufficient notice of the true dynamics of Iraq power politics, and which allowed the allocation and benefits from O&G Development to be haggled over for many years. It's far too easy to blame Iranian Sh'ia influences; the IR Federal Structures and workings to to this day have never been properly defined and implemented. As time goes on, these poorly defined and implemented structures are being redefined, whittled down, altered. In view of what has happened, it is completely wrong to assume the USA can now come in and force a Sovereign Nation to alter their way of doing things.
Like it or not, that's the way it is.
'and all believed that would be the end of it.' lol
No Belgrano, many didn't.
When Baghdad won the court case over the oil rights Erbil swiftly submitted to Baghdad and all believed that would be the end of it. However Iraqi politicians have utilised the win to extort ethnic financial hardship on those in Kurdistan resulting in multiple job losses and even those still with employment going unpaid.
This is a Kurdish persecution on ethnic and religious grounds, and we can clearly see who those are that are responsible for it. Almost a case for international case against them as they are now using financial tools instead to effectively starve them out and make life unbearable. This is never what the original court case ruling was designed for.
The Iraqi government has some hardline idiots aligned to Iran (similar to itsaponzi on this board) and they are making life difficult for Kurds as well as Sunnis and Shiites aligned to the west.
You can see from article below that Sudani does not agree with the conditions his own government is putting on the Kurds to receive the monthly salaries.
Really the only way forward is for the yanks to start sanctioning individuals in the Iraqi government. Nothing like personal loss to bring a person to his/her senses.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/ckb/story/253800-%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C:-%D9%84%DB%95-%D8%AF%DB%95%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88-%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%AC%DB%95%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%B4%D8%AA%DB%8E%DA%A9-%D9%86%DB%8C%DB%8C%DB%95-%D8%A8%DB%95%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%A8%DA%95%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%88%D9%88%DA%86%DB%95
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani said in an interview with an Arab media: According to the constitution and the budget law, there is no such thing as cutting salaries or sending salaries, but we must send 12.67% of the Kurdistan Region.
Sudani said there is a misunderstanding in Baghdad on the position of the Kurdistan Region, while the Iraqi Finance Minister is sending the February salaries in stages and conditional on the sending of salaries for subsequent months.
"There is no such thing as cutting salaries according to the constitution and the budget law, the Kurdistan Region's share is 12.67 percent," Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Sudani told a Saudi television channel.
Sudani stressed that according to the budget law, there is no such thing as salaries, but we must send the budget to the Kurdistan Region to spend part of the salaries and part of the projects because the Kurdistan Region has its own government and parliament.
"I clearly feel that there is a misunderstanding of the position of the Kurdistan Region at the level of the media and at the level of the political elite in Iraq, so if we deal with the Kurdistan Region in this way There will be no such thing as the political and constitutional structure of the Kurdistan Region.
Sudani's comments come as the Iraqi Finance Ministry said it would pay salaries in several stages for February and has other conditions for next month.
It is likely that this pipeline could be used to pass Iranian oil as Iraqi oil! Iranian and Iraqi oil in some fields near the border are so similar, it is impossible to tell the difference. In any case, the more oil export capacity through the southern ports the more starved the local refineries in the Middle and North of Iraq would be; and the higher the demand (and hence price) will be for Kurdistan and Kirkuk oils. Should be reassuring for GKP and other companies operating the northern oil fields.
Best Regards ValueS
Afternoon all.
Just seen the following publication.
https://english.aawsat.com/business/4904686-iraq-build-new-offshore-oil-export-pipeline-south
Capacity of 2 million barrels per day to make 5 million barrels per day from Basra by 2025.
Your thoughts are appreciated.
Any oil minister that deliberately sells his country short by loosing $11B , resulting in Iraqi people loosing employment, and running a country down so Iran can profit needs clapping in irons.
When the same politicians then barefaced lie about progress while trying to do the exact opposite is beyond me. Perhaps the Kurds do need independence.
The same Iraqi minister who then try and get American dollars to help repair economy , while happy to waste a fortune elsewhere.
They deserve nothing, Little wonder Shell and Esso quit Iraq with those total corrupt idiots in charge. Yes they would rather deal with countries that openly give backhanders like China and Russia , and disregard all the population around them who they are supposed to represent.
When it all goes pear shaped in a few years, dont look top the west to bale them out, because Russia/Iran and China wont want to know.
Yea, maybe some Iranian oil is making its way West, but it was a political comment he made to try to make use of anti-Iranian sentiment in the US. It's about time that Baghdad got called out and pressured, AND Kurdistan, because they could have instigated trucking operations way before now.
The maximum capacity of the pipeline is c. 700 kbopd only! And then why would Iran pump their oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean if it is destined for China? Isn't it more sensible and far cheaper to use their own ports on the Persian Gulf?
Best Regards ValueS
Am i right in thinking that all these parties are involved with pumping 2m barrels of oil a day from iran and if so what chase have we got.
Pipeline not laying empty then - arguements about our production costs etc., will be delay until after ramadam for sure - so that those who control the flow can continue to pocket a few more daily millions at both ends.
I think that the ruse is now fully exposed and the USA will come down very hard and very soon on those millionaires in power will be held responsible…..
7.52 min video in link which gives additional information in the interview.
https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34246-Iraqi-government-makes-false-statements-about-oil-export-resumption
GLA
Superb video.
APIKUR playing hard ball. Myles has called out the lies and BS.
Meetings with US Congress this week.
Hmmmmm - sounds like sticky fingers in ICG are allowing santioned Iranian oil into the Turkish pipeline in place of Kurdish oil from our good selves.
Probably brown envelopes at both ends of the pipe then.
Erbil tribals will need their cut too of course - or they would have leaked the sanction busting to DC immediately.
But we must remember where we are trying to run an honest business and that the Iraqi people get paid on time.
Watch and learn how corruption goes directly to those in power.
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/34246-Iraqi-government-makes-false-statements-about-oil-export-resumption,-says-APIKUR-spox
ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – Myles B. Caggins III, the spokesperson for the Association of Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR), on Sunday told Kurdistan24 that “the central government of Iraq is playing games and they are making false statements in the media about the status of the resumption of exports of oil.”
“Last week in Washington, D.C. I met with Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and he announced that there have been 11 billion US dollars lost since the pipeline has been closed,” the spokesperson said.
He also revealed that the oil companies from APIKUR are ready to resume “full production and exports.”
"Iran is now exporting two million barrels of oil per day... The Kurdistan region was exporting 450,000 barrels per day through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. That oil would go on global markets. Now Iran is filling that space with 2 million barrels per day and Iran oil is sanctioned and they're selling oil to China and North Korea and we need to have unsanctioned good oil from Kurdistan region going into the world markets,” he added while stressing, “Iraq and the central government should also want to have strong energy production in Kurdistan region because all of Iraq benefits when Kurdistan region is strong.”
Meanwhile, the APIKUR spokesperson underlined that if Iraqi Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani visits Washington, D.C. he needs to have “a deal with Erbil for two things one there needs to be a budget deal… the second thing is there needs to be an agreement between Baghdad or Erbil and international oil companies for the full production and export of oil.”
So we are liable to meet the cost of removing/reducing flaring are we ?
Not without an approved FDP I would suggest.
How long has our license left to run incidently ??
Field Development Plan still not approved yet.
150m outstanding.
Both In government hands.
...and don't forget the Field Development Plant, where exactly are we in that grey area at the moment? And don't forget the Flaring issue - stop it or else.
KRG or SOMO could say, and with some justification, why did you pay out so much in dividends when you are aware of the impending FDP Capex commitments ?
$40 - $45M might help at a low rate of output, as we have at the moment, but not when you start aiming for 50+MBopd.
Lots of leverage still to be exerted.
"The $ 151m is a completely different matter, and there is a further approx $ 40-50m net [for the GKP] in the CRP. So the sum is let's say $ 200m. "
That's worth more today than a discounted flat line production going forward
"$ 3.1/barrel so OPEX "
That will likely be proven too low
"40-45m in CAPEX is required to keep the production flat"
If Net to GKP that might cover it in a good year. Don't forget direct Shaikan G&A and head office G&A.
And do we keep our license if we refuse to invest because we can't recover costs?
Get real - IOCs operating under the tribal governed PSCs will only derive a fraction of your dream figures - read back on putup’s calcs for a credible analysis of our income.
And remember - the tribal leaders know exactly how to default and short- change on our invoices….. and we appear to be stuck under them yet again.
Watch and learn how to skin-off and avoid paying according to contracts.