The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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So I put in an order this morning for 200000 shares at market and even after a half an hour it's not filled. This is ridiculous
Frackme
... If oil and gas was still a thriving industry and not in wind down mode then maybe Falcon could do better but the reality is there is likely 20-30 years left in oil and gas at any significant level (as it will go on at a reduced level for way longer) and any buyers will know that Falcon can't unlock the value in the asset and the longer we have to give up stakes in drills thr value reduces. ...... no worries today we consume more stones than the people in the stone age. Another example: black coal is the dirtiest of all and 18th century. But reality is that mankind has never burned more coal than today. We have not reached the peak of coal consumption and listen to people who sing the song of the hydrocarbon age. No worries at least mankind will need mor gas the next 50 years is the other prognosis with a cristall ball.
"... have been on both sides of a few deals in my time but every deal is different and what you really want in any deal is competitive tension between two interested parties. ... "
100 % agree. And to create such an environment POQ should tell every man and his dog the Beetaloo FOG story. to get a competitive tension . The higher the share price the higher the take over price.
Things can and always were able to happen. So why cut and run now? The fantastic news didn't change. The asset potential only got better. So let the stock price chasers sell. Those of us that didn't leverage our lives away to be a part of Falcon will sit and wait for the buyout. The end is near, or at least in sight. Hold, have faith, stop listening to those that complain. Smile :)
"Really don't understand why anyone would think this is the time to have the last straw and sell their shares unless they had External reasons."
Merloid,
I think it's pretty clear. Many have been waiting years and years for those good test results. Hoping for them and then a bump in share price. We finally get GREAT results and the share price collapses. There are many many things that can happen between now and a sale. Social, macro economics, political. And again, while I think POQ getting us the opt out feature was great, opting out just kicks the can down the road. What reason is there for anyone to buy Falcon anytime soon?? Assuming that Tamb and BS get the funds to continue this quickly. Why not do as Falcon has done and let someone else prove up (and I don't mean two more wells) the ground and THEN buy? Like 5-6 years from now.
Really don't understand why anyone would think this is the time to have the last straw and sell their shares unless they had External reasons. Even at 10% there is huge value in this to falcon, let alone the fact that most of the claim remains at the previous level. The aim has to be not to dilute people and to stay in the game as a company.
I think the complaint people have about CEOs salary and winding out time to get paid is too inward looking. If you successfully sell falcon for a big profit or another small OG company, then the CEO will in most cases quickly be able to establish a new company, get investment on the basis of previous sucess and continue having such a salary in the future. He will benefit from the sale in the same way as any investor. If you want a close to home example look into John Craven post Gulf oil, dana petroleum, petroceltic and then post cove energy success into falcon and the private discover exploration . No issue getting more work for a sucessful CEO.
Yes, I might not have mentioned it but did pick up on that and it's further great news. A really positive interview and adds to the impetus of all the developers now heading in the same direction.
Another thing I picked up on but didn't mention was that Empire were so impressed with the SSH1 well that they were going to take good parts of that process and build it into their future drilling - a good endorsement for the SSH1 and also boxes well going forward.
Atb,
Northern
NorthernMagic: I hope you caught the portion of Alex's comments regarding the IP decline rate. This was why I mentioned the other day that the IP30; IP60 and soon to be released IP90 and IP120 are very important data points to this project. The petroleum engineers - even in the US - can relate to this decline curve. They can massage these numbers and project the long term decline rate for future wells in this part of the Beetaloo Basin. From Alex's comments, word seems to be getting out about our world class shale discovery!
Thanks Dprussky, great to hear Empire calling out the success of the SSH1, and being genuinely stunned by how well it has performed with such a minimal rate of decline. Great to hear that the success of this well is being talked about in the US, our £1 could be a possibility! GLA.
I listened to the interview and took a lot out of that. The guy notices a very positive message - it seems odd to hear more or less exactly the same list of positives that he lists about the recent well results that POQ quoted. The other big positives I too were the demand that will presumably put the sellers in a strong position and also his statement about all the money that Brian Sheffield has invested in the Beetaloo in various ways and to follow the money - said about all I could have wanted to hear!
Atb,
Northern
WHY does the Empire Energy boss make more and louder marketing than the boss of Falcon for the Falcon/TBN well test results? WHY is POQ so quiet???
PS -- don't miss the part in Alex's interview where he talks about his recent travels to gas conferences in the States, and how everyone he meets is saying great things about the SSH1 flow results -- (which bodes well for an EQT level of buyer interest in Falcon down the line).
MANY THANKS dprussky -- as Alex's comments from the 10 minute mark to the end of the interview about Brian and the SSH1 well are probably the most positive comments about the SSH1 and the future strength of the Beetaloo to date!!!
Alex has nothing but praise for how the SSH1 well, with it's 5.5 inch casing and slick water frack design is performing. Alex even commented about the decline rate being an extremely low decline rate -- which the recent Sentinel shot seems to be indicating too. Worth listening to again -- anytime I get nervous about our bird's future prospects. GLA
Around the middle to the end. AU talking about Tambo results and BS investments really positive. https://www.raasgroup.com/live/asxeeg-empire-energy-group-raas-interview-8-april-2024/
WillowGrove you said it very succinctly in my opinion. I think you hit the nail on the head or in my parlance pinned the tail on the donkey! Just for fun checkout the media article from years ago that Falcon hunts a major payday for investors in the Irish Times. Just google it. Compare where we where are to today. What a contrast with this guy. It would be interesting to have an audit performed to see what the insiders actually own compared to what they have disclosed. Regardless this leprechaun has no scruples and is a lousy poker player in my opinion as he has turned over his cards. Of the $5million left in the kitty $2.1 has been allocated to our investor friendly CEO. for all of his years of service. The BOD should be sued for lack of fiduciary duty in my humble opinion
Yes, flare appears to be larger, it measures approx 20m more in diameter than the flare from March, possibly a good sign.
Bigger or just a better picture?
Flare April 7
Https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84089&lng=133.65215&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-04-07T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-04-07T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Flare 13 March
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.84089&lng=133.65215&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2F42924c6c-257a-4d04-9b8e-36387513a99c&datasetId=S2L1C&fromTime=2024-03-13T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2024-03-13T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
Much bigger!
Flare looks great, and seems to be larger in diameter than previous images???
I hear you Oleo. While a seller may have what they spent over the years in the back of their mind a buyer will only care about the horizon and what's to come. If oil and gas was still a thriving industry and not in wind down mode then maybe Falcon could do better but the reality is there is likely 20-30 years left in oil and gas at any significant level (as it will go on at a reduced level for way longer) and any buyers will know that Falcon can't unlock the value in the asset and the longer we have to give up stakes in drills thr value reduces. While share price isn't necessarily a good guage of value in this instance, it is what the market values the company at whether you like it or not and any purchaser will reference it as a jumping off point in any sale. If we book significant gas to our reserves that will help. It's just my opinion at the end of the day and certainly not worth too much contemplation from anyone to be honest. I just enjoy all the machinations on this forum and throwing mine in the ring. have been on both sides of a few deals in my time but every deal is different and what you really want in any deal is competitive tension between two interested parties. No doubt what the falcon board will be aiming for when the decide to execute their exit plan..
" I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then. "
If somebody overtakes FOG for 500 million $, this would be a grand theft for me. I estimate that during all the years FOG has invested more than 500 m $ and even more true when you calculate the present value of the in the past invested money in the Beetalloo.
For example YPF goes all in now in Argentina to produce shale gas/oil:
"Argentina M&A Opportunity! YPF plans to offload a significant part of its conventional upstream business, enabling it to focus on its Vaca Muerta assets. The company's conventional production is around 135,000 bbl/d oil and 380 MMcf/d gas - this is a potentially transformational opportunity for the country’s small to mid-size E&Ps.
Welligence has done a deep dive on the divestment program. In our report, we analyze the following..."
There are people, companies who see a good value for shale gas/oil. It would be stupidity on the one side and a grand theft on the other side when FOG gets overtaken for small pocket money.
Frack,
Once the options expire worthless they're gone though. So another round to replace them wouldn't affect that I don't believe.
Excellent post frackme -- and most likely the correct scenario for Falcon over the next 18 months!!
The board are limited to 10% of the free float so they are about half way there. Hard to justify to your shareholders issuing many more options though when a share price is falling. Fastest way to get a vote of no confidence. We are at an interesting intersection. Real value is being created with these flow rates and will further increase with the results of the next 2 wells but if the share price stays static or declines it will make the route to more options very risky. I don't think you'll see the board issuing any more options this year unless the share price increases significantly. After all it's their fiduciary responsibility to create value for the shareholders, hard to justify it even if it's happening when the share price goes backwards. It's walking a tightrope. I'd say we'll sell in the next 18 months especially if the flow rates are good in the next two wells. Falcon hasn't the resources to unlock the real value and any purchaser will want to pick the company up cheap and not be paying anywhere close to the NPV that the empire article is putting out. I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then.
This is the thing. They can just issue more options to replace any that expire....and more.