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Yes drilling does seem to excite people though not quite as much lately it seems.
I had forgotten about the ability to sell direct, thanks for that. Let's hope it remains in the new GSA
Hope you had a good night and hangover free 😁
The principle benefit of the "condensate" is that ARA/AEX are able to sell it direct to the market at the "market rate", rather than have to sell it to the TPDC directly at well head at a pre-determined price - so it is very profitable; at least taht would be the case if the Ntorya GSA mirrors the same terms as the Kiliwani GSA, which is exactly what the BoD were expecting at the last AGM.
RJ just to restate in summary the CPR / 3D seismic is a great result but many years from monetisation and hence not a hugely price sensitive. The GSA would have been a catalyst if quickly followed up by the 25 Dev License, drill contract, pipeline initiation etc but one without any of the others really does not achieve very much. Moreover the most recent RNS has suggested H1 2025 for pipeline spur so I fear that anything that happens in the interim will be largely ignored until the final piece of the jigsaw is in put place. The only exception to that might be the eventual CH1 drill which could stimulate some excitement.
What chances Prosciutto's missive this week will ignore mention of Condensate ?
Tick up for Ignore......
Digging further "unaudited Contingent Resource estimate of 3.45 TCF Gas Initially In Place (GIIP) with associated
recoverable condensate of ca 20 MMbbls."
They clearly indicate 20MMbbls of that condensate is recoverable and at those 2021 $66/barrel prices worth $1.32 Billion Dollars
Undervalued here or what
Great find on the condensate
RoJo, now you've heard the possibility of Condensate, why not put your money where your mouth is and change over to Strong Sell ?
Edgar, I just remember when speaking to Jay.B at an AGM before he left where he said that condensate was valuable. When I saw those figures this morning I thought that is a lot, so researched the value and bingo.
I can't remember if any potential condensate figures were previously posted by Aminex but these from APT perked up my interest for sure.
I never realised it held such high value. Who needs gas when there is that much value in the condensate alone? Not only has the gas numbers improved but the whole project appears to have become a monster, let alone a sleeping giant.
Roll on that development licence and let's get this baby monetised.
Great work, Roger. Great point. I had overlooked it too.
You made me go back to the report. Of the 55mm barrels of condensate I think approx 35mm are around Ntorya. And that is the area about to go into "reserves" and so be proved up a step further for the purposes of the wider market valuing Aminex. That happens on licence granting/development approval, I believe.
I dont know of this next point but it is noticeable from the report that the condensate numbers for the rest of the licence are much lower than Ntorya. Does it follow that if it is the same geology as Ntorya those numbers will increase as the prospects are proved up by drilling and more work?
I think the main reference point is table 3 on page 18 of the report.
It just gets better and better. Licence - reserves not resources - drill - (several drills?) - production. Free carry.
Condensate is hardly ever mention, but it is an extremely valuable commodity. It could be argued that because of the amount of previously estimated gas (8tcf) the mean in place GIIP which has now been doubled to 16.4tcf has taken all the headlines but condensate has rarely been discussed on this board.
I think we miss a major positive here which can be seen the APT 3D Seismic report published on Thursday with a risked estimate of 55.2MMbls of condensate.
"It does vary in price depending on where it is produced, gravity, btu and market demand but in June 2021 a barrel of East Texas Condensate was almost $66" Source... enverous.com/blog/what-exactly-is-condensate/
That equates to $3.643 billion dollars in vale without gas. That is a hell of a lot of value it seems being overlooked.
Long shift yesterday SH !
Take a well-earned rest today eh ?
Crusty - SOS - they have realised it’s a multi bagger 😂
I think this 3D should have been a catalyst but yes we could argue lack of news has been a big issue and people have moved attention elsewhere.
In saying that it is only a month ago we had the GSA with promise of Dev licence soon which also should have been a catalyst. Now the 3D results come and still no real SP action so let's hope that news process continues in order to generate some more interest.
I asked you to pinpoint wgat you think would be the real kick off because two lots of good news in quick succession and we are still lower than before the gsa news broke.
I doubt we will ever get a weekly RNS tbh
Any and all of those things that allow us to see the date that we will see the (achievable and definitive) date that will allow us to monetise our gas assets. That is not one event but several; I only hope that the BoD can deliver those in the short term and in quick succession because RJ, as I do not need to tell you, if there is a significant gap between those events many people will sell into any spike (with a view to re-entering later) and sp rises will be transient; we need the momentum that a continuous (positive) newsflow would provide. Yes, CP, you will tell me, but they might miss out and yes RJ, I will say but how many times and how many people have spouted that same narrative over the years, even recent years? And yet here we are in March 2024 and, despite a fantastic upgrade in GIIP, at an sp tat still allows you to buy these shares at a price lower than you could have done in March 2022 when the likes of haggismctripe and others (who I will not name - but know who they are) were exhorting all and sundry to BUY now for FOMO.... some (they know who they are) were even telling us that we should expect 3D seismics soonish and yet even two years later what difference did it make? No surprise to me neither on the delay nor the effect. If we had seen it two years ago, or anytime in between, it might have had a bigger impact but, as you know and we have discussed, the delays have had and will continue to have a serious detrimental impact.
Sorry RJ but I must go - I am going out for the evening and am late!
Crusty do us a favour and tell us exactly what you see will be the catalyst for the rise we await. 👍
Everyone, well anyone with more than only one eye, recognises a chancer when they see one and you are that "incarnate".... plenty of hype and very little substance.
As it happens "jamtart"I have never made any prediction about what I thought we would see with the results of the 3D seismic outcome, so you have certainly got that wrong, because more importantly, whatever it was, my view was that it would have very little, if any, impact on the sp (contrary to those telling us all that it would be the pivotal piece of news) and for reasons that I have explained umpteen times both before and since. Did I get that wrong too?
See you all on Monday.
GLA
Ludificationes intellectus running riot I see...
Yes i know, I think we all know, he really doesn't affect things, it's just, he's dam well bloody annoying at times. Lol 😂
BG - I kinda knew that really 😀
Sharehead "What I don’t grasp is your purpose here ?"
He's here to annoy investors and to stifle any positive debate. Why he wants to spend so much of his time here, is a bit puzzling, though he is harmless, in so much that his arguments are quite child like, with his continual view mirror perspective, (it hasn't happened yet so it won't happen in the future )
Here’s my general summary as to why we are on the road to multi bag imo
Gas sales agreement signed: Aminex signed a gas sales agreement with the Tanzanian authorities. This is clearly a BIG step forward because it establishes a framework for selling the gas that will be produced from the project. Always good to have a BUYer lined up ready.
Development Licence progress: The company anticipates receiving final written approval for the Development Licence VERY soon.
Once received we can proceed with drilling the Chikumbi-1 well and working on other development activities.
3D seismic data processing completed: The full processing of the 3D seismic data has been completed, which is essential for identifying potential drilling locations. This resulted in a MAJOR resource upgrade.
New well location identified: A new and improved well location for the Chikumbi-1 well has been identified based on the 3D seismic data analysis. This suggests increased confidence the best location has been chosen now.
Government support: The Tanzanian authorities are reported to be prioritizing the project and supporting its accelerated development, including facilitating faster pipeline construction.
Imo
I fully grasp the situation Rojo
It’s a major multi bagger waiting to happen imo
What I don’t grasp is your purpose here ?
Not that I’m overly interested tbh
Atb
Have a nice holiday one-trick Tanz. Try not to bore everyone on the camp site.
Here's a copy of my post adjust your eyesight if you can't see the question mark in that post, Was right on the 16 tcf bit wonder if my 50p price on the sp will come right as well? Didn't get that bit right either did you.
I'm not sure you grasp the situation sharehead.
Aminex has no drill, no drill-pad, no pipeline, no CPR, no development licence, a GSA (with no mention of price) - not much really.
Investment is about timing - by the Company's admission the pipeline is (at best) months away, so no income for months either. Hopefully, significant gas in the ground (but we do need the CPR to confirm). Will the SP rise before all the missing is in place ? Personally I doubt it. So, in my view this is a SELL, as there are many much better opportunities in the Market. Nothing to stop me buying back in if/as items are completed.
Surprised you're working on a Saturday.
RoJo the Shapeshifter "Your 'speculative reasoning' (!) hasn't got you very far has it BG ?"
Not yet. Though I am fully loaded.
Did you miss reading that rather sooper RNS on Thursday, that special RNS that comes once I four years.