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08.39
He's missing more than a few inches
ImHO
GS
Have a look at Scot126's twitter if you want to see just how PANR obsessed he is.
The voice over guy was great real drama to the video.
But all joking a side more PR, the more who see it will hopefully buy in.
Anyone else get the feeling that Scot is 5ft 5.
dai.
Or 2. Or was it 3? I lost count with the amount of promises redundant Dave made. lol looking forward to the coming weeks and months here and hopefully a SP climb northwards.
Fly66, I agree, however it seemed to be a big concern to a lot of posters the other day.
Morning! Great news rig mobilised from Pantheon right on time! We probably get an operational update on Sunday night regarding the ice pan, road and rig. Very much think the trade is on now price will build. Drilling commences early March. Super exciting!
Been unlucky enough to lose a rig in the past..
The Rig was always going to arrive hardly news worthy.
Drilling successfully over the next few months and recovering oil not so easy.
Not something we have been successful at before.!!
shoooosh, buy first then tell the world..
Hopefully that was the last hurdle so the sp can start to take off now.
How high do you think the sp will reach this spud?
Fantastic news! Those worried about the rig never arriving need worry no more!
Scot will be pleased!!
Great update! This wil fly today
So panr just released the update to confirm the rig had been moved snd testing has continued should be released shortly ready for our spud in March.
This sp should fly today on that news!
The market has always valued 88e correctly but you seem to always think the market has 88e over valued. You know very well Scot that the market never stays incorrect for too long.
Are you bitter about the halving of the PANR share price recently? Would you have preferred readers of this forum to buy PANR a while ago and lose a lot of money, but don’t worry, your math says it’s 18p a barrel in the ground …
Does your maths take into account the fact PANR has large debt and 88e has ZERO debt? What’s your thoughts on that…
Does your maths take into account that 88e has a larger following now and is a much more popular share to buy than PANR?
Does your maths take into account that you are spending your retired years writing lengths on a share forum you’re not invested in but just bitter about?
Does your maths take into account the value to get in our share from PANRs finding? (Ouch, sore subject for you that one!).
If a Man Utd fan spent his entire time writing badly about Man City, does that really make him a Man Utd fan / football fan, or just a twisted bitter keyboard warrior with nothing better to do?
04:32
You're new to this forum, WWP, so are likely unaware this has all been litigated many times before. Whether you like it or not, here are the facts. Prior to Dave Wall formally acknowledging in an RNS in April/May 2021 (I think?) that 88E and PANR shared assets in Alaska I had written the sum total of one post on this forum since joining lse many years previously. As soon as Dave Wall confirmed the shared assets it became imperative for me as a fundamental investor to research both companies and to carry out a comparative valuation of these two listed companies.
This I have done ever since. Longer term members of this forum will confirm to you that I clearly label facts as facts and opinion as opinion. That's it, that's the history. I am not paid by anyone to analyse or research 88E. I do so because it informs my personal investment activities.
Back to the fundamentals, WWP. Why do you think it is a good idea to buy 88E at 22p per recoverable barrel in the ground v's PANR at 18p? Remember, the 88E value of 22p per barrel requires Hickory-1 to prove every single barrel it's targetting. 88E management are guiding that this is highly, highly unlikely to happen - see their Chance of Success guidance. So, I repeat, unless you admit to playing a financial game of pass the parcel, why would the rational investor or gambler buy 88E over PANR based on the published comparative facts at time of writing?
Hint? We won't hear a chirp back from you because the maths is crystal clear. There is not one single metric in the sector-accepted risk/unrisked model where 88E offers a better risk/return than PANR. Not one. Fact.
Weird?
Scot126, are you paid/reimbursed/in contact with Pantheon resources?
Part 2 Rebuttal.
Why are you valuing a known oil exploration company. 88e is about sentiment and LT holding until they find oil. For the small traders it’s all about returning your initial investment prior to TD and free carry the rest. As I said before (and you ignored) many of us have taken the approach.
For those who got caught with ST holding on the drop last year - many would average down (I did on this parcel). For my ST hold instead of 200k of shares , I know have 1mill averaged to 0.013 so I’m close to even leading up to the drill. I will sell 1/2 prior to TD and likely recover my costs (0.026). Is this possible? Well IME it is and I will therefore free carry another 500,000. Will we strike oil this year? I don’t know, but when we do I will consider it good trading.
If we don’t strike oil then more buying opportunities await as we are carrying excellent leases and continue to invest in more.
Part 2, continued from below.
D) 88E is most definitely not "a sustainable business". That's just made up nonsense. Whatever decision any reader makes to buy, sell or hold 88E shares, please do not rely on such gibberish.
E) Ok, let's confront the intellectually moribund gobbledyg00ok spewed by so many on here. The SP went to x pence in 2022, in 2021 before that season's well was spudded so it must do the same again. Oh, we can add in the "discover oil => SP must go up megabucks!". Absolute codswallop. Not one of you has taken on this nonsense because you're all scared to point out the fallacy of such statements for fear that everyone admits this whole big game of pass the parcel won't eventuate this season. Truth is you all need naïve and credulous "first time buyers" to keep the parcel going round the circle. Proof? 88E owns a 100mmbo reservoir called Umiat. Dave Wall bought it for the cost of making an old well head safe, was it $1m or thereabouts? Sure, 88E management will make a big hullaballoo if there is proof of hydrocarbons in the Hickory-1 logs, you'll all act as if you've won the lottery.....and then the sector commentators will, just like Dave Wall and I have done when valuing the 100m barrels of *reserves* at Umiat at $1m, ask if even one barrel suggested by the Hickory-1 logs can be produced commercially. Can you imagine what Muddy Waters is going to do when they see 88E pop up on their screens? They don't believe in PANR's assets so they'll absolutely smash 88E's far smaller, poorer quality portion of the shared asset. These are shared reservoirs, folks, and its a geological fact that 88E's portion of these shared assets are downdip, have greater phasing risk and have potentially very serious implications from Dmax calculations.
F) Let's get back to the facts and fundamentals. Why would a rational investor or clever punter/gambler buy $eeenf at 22p per recoverable barrel in the ground v's $panr's 18p in the ground? Remember, the figures in the previous sentence *require* Hickory-1 to prove up *every single barrel* of the 647mmbo being targeted. Look at the geological CoS published by 88E. There's not a snowball's chance in hell that 647mmbo will be proved by this one well. The correct calculation is probably more like PANR @ 15p per recoverable barrel (upgrades already trailed for Alkaid deep, Alkaid anomaly, SFS, Kuparuk and from the new leases extending the BFF at Theta West) and 88E at 28p+ per barrel in the ground.
G) To anyone who genuinely believes 88E's *current valuation* will be underpinned by a semi-successful Hickory-1 outcome, or a fully successful outcome for that matter, the numbers categorically do not support that contention.
Don't believe me? Ask Brom and the other prolific posters on this forum and on other social media platforms. Read their content. They're relying on gee-ing up the less knowledgeable in order to take advantage of them to deliver a trading profit. Pass the parcel. Fact.
outcome
...there's no doubt about it, this forum contains some of the most warm-hearted and open-minded investors/punters on the entire planet.
Right then, back to some home truths.
A) To prove what a stand up bloke I am, I think you can all chill out about the rig arriving on time to spud Hickory-1 at the start of March. The plan for the rig is (and always was) for it to be parked in a corner of the Alkaid-2 gravel pad until 88E's pad was ready. Then the rig travels at 1.5mph down the Dalton Highway (about 15-20 miles or so) to the Hickory-1 ice pad.
B) We know Hickory-1 will be drilled and logged in March/April, agreed? Then, if warranted, 88E will return to Hickory-1 in the 23/24 winter season to conduct a flow test(s). Here's a heads up for all GLTHs. No matter how many lovely pictures are published showing beautiful hydrocarbon fluorescence colours from Hickory-1, be prepared for a massive dose of scepticism from the wider market. How come? Look at the PANR experience. The market, by and large, refuses to acknowledge flow test results from vertical pilot holes in Alaska. Some sector commentators will even accuse management of publishing fraudulent results such is their scepticism about the producibility from tight, conventional reservoirs. "But, but, but that's a PANR only problem." Er, no it's not. 88E's reservoirs are downdip of PANR's (look at the diagrams!) and 88E's reservoir characteristics are *more* challenging than PANR's (PANR's being updip, plus lower phasing risk plus lower Dmax risk). So get ready for extreme scepticism for "logs data only" from sector commentators. I forecast they'll scoff at "logs data only"....they'll then scoff that flow tests won't be executed for another 12 months....and even after any *successful* flow test results are published this time next year they'll respond with "it doesn't mean anything on a vertical test well, we need to see empirical data from a Long Term Production Test using multi-stage fracks on a long lateral. Don't believe me? Go check what the bears are saying about PANR's assets.
C) Longhorn. I continue to be amazed (and genuinely saddened) by the lack of capacity and/or genuine curiosity displayed by members of this forum. Yes, Longhorn is producing revenue but look at it on an annual basis. As a couple of posters have helpfully tried to point out, the dividend from the Longhorn jv hardly covers 88E's G&A. Sure, there are more workovers and new wells planned.....but who's going to pay for them? The 88E GLTHs! Longhorn was a clever purchase IMHO. It delivers cash to the business to pay employee salaries for the foreseeable future *even if* all of the 88E Alaskan assets turn out to be worth zero. Value of Longhorn now? I dunno.... let's say the value add from the workovers so far has doubled (I'm being generous here) the original purchase price. In the overall scheme of things, so what, big deal?
Part 1.
Part 2 continued above.
Hi Brom I'm torn between all the information I'm reading on the rig being late ? Could you please give me your thoughts on this.
.
Rollercoaster today and not up a penny lol the game is is in play GKA