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Crusty, you want to calm down mate, talk about blind faith, you want to go over ADVFN HE1 board and meet some of them, they're off the scale lol
Commercia, Joeltg99, mj152 and Big Pat.......
Shareholder RoJo's sumary: Aminex is going Bust, SELL !
I take that to mean 1.94 at this point in time which would a lot more reasonable than where it currently stands
FWIW one and all Morningstar have reassessed their "fair value estimate" after yesterday's RNS and their figure for "fair value" is 1.94p.....
I fear the delusional syndrome errores intellectus (or to give it's proper name ludificationes intellectus) is more widespread than thought.
This is alarming - a poster a few years back warned about the Aminex syndrome (AS) but this latest manifestation is significantly worse. Avoid contact with afflicted posters if at all possible.
I would agree with you on the ARA presentation (very informative) but your comment that "i get the feeling the development license is not too far away." is just guesswork BG. Your feeling it may be but that is that any more valid than someone whose feeling is that it will be another 6 months? NO! And no past experience would give any cause to validate that feeling - so actually, yes, just blind faith.
The thing is BG I've got about equal amounts in both so hopefully I don't miss one while waiting for the other and much as I have great faith here, in reality the product over there is 10x the value in sold unit comparison. Fact is the upside potential on both is enormous it is just waiting that kills the SPs
Blind faith Crusty, what are you talking about now, ARA new presentation yesterday, bloody impressive wasn't it, I was quietly confident we would see a substantial resource upgrade, but not on such a scale.
Yes, given all the new information ARA gave out yesterday to the market and indeed their competitors, i get the feeling the development licence is not too far away.
Aminex BG? Is that an expression of blind faith superseding experience and common sense?
"Which well come first "
Well, i can't see facts and figures arriving anytime soon down the road, so my money is on the good ship Aminex . 🙂
I think some of the lack of movement maybe down to the fact there is a lot going on down the road at the moment with similar massive potential if not arguably more. I have a foot in both camps and either could make a big jump at any point in the very near future. In a situation like that nobody is going to shift everything into one basket. Facts and figures there and development licence and the promised immediate plan of action here.
Which will come first, chicken or egg? perhaps Hammy will reveal all next Wednesday
Indeed so RJ.
BG yes it will and yes we have a reasonable idea where it is. those who attended the AGM even more so if they studied the google maps. The reasons I outlined earlier were broadly what they told us as to why they wouldn't reveal the exact location. Crusty would remember this.
...what would we do without you Crusty !?
Accepted sharehead.
My view though is that the progress for AEX and ARA for the next 5 years is already mapped out in line with the Ntorya development programme and, soon to be issued 25 Dev license. The 140 scuffs per day production for the next 8 well programme (the only well that AEX are funded for by the way) may alter somewhat but nothing that will move the dial . That in itself will fuel our sp growth for the next few years - over that time horizon the upgrade in GIIP beyond is of little consequence until a exploration and appraisal plan for those areas outside of Ntorya has been mapped out.
Yes you might find analogies within the industry but no direct comparisons because the influencing factors for AEX are very peculiar to Tanzania and come with a totally different back story; the delays experienced here over the last 15 years are fairly unique and very much influence the thinking of potential investors.
All my own views of course and you are fully entitled to " take whatever view you wish" ;0)
Again Crusty - while I accept that there is logic to what you say - there are numerous companies that don’t have all these factors in place that have seen their sp’s rise to multiples of ours.
We can also see a route to the end goal now too - yes it’s again a bit delayed I agree but it’s there non the less
Imo
Any time 😂
"you can take whatever view you wish"
Thank you for your permission sharehead, maybe I will just do that.
"slowly over time" - hurrah! Yes sharehead as the time to monetisation reduces, greater value is gradually attached to the assets; so 10 -15 years perhaps? The point being no-one currently knows when that is and until they do the value of those ex-Ntorya assets is totally unquantifiable.
GSA - signed. Yes indeed a big tick in the box!! And not before itme.
Resources- proved up and then massively upgraded. Only NT1 & NT2 resources have been proven up. CH1 still on the back burner.
Pipeline- slow progress but connecting to existing facilities- which is a massive plus. Just been put back by another 6 months. How many times has this been deferred? How many more times?
Development agreement- due - for Ntorya only.
My point being that this does nothing to give any certainty over timelines, even for Ntorya, let alone beyond and until there is some the resource continues to remain gas in the ground. The sp is a reflection of people's confidence, or lack of it, that there is a finite timeline for these events to be delivered and one that they can trust. Only then can anyone quantify the "value" of their investment.
Because Crusty it’s been an iterative development
Yes, currently no revenue- but also no real expenditure, cash in the bank and a free carry
Why didn’t the sp double or triple immediately- because it just doesn’t- it goes up when least expected or slowly over time. If it were that easy we would all be billionaires
Unfortunately patience is part of it - and yes you can tell me all about patience- but I too have been here for many years
The fact is key matters are now falling into place
GSA - signed
Resources- proved up and then massively upgraded
Pipeline- slow progress but connecting to existing facilities- which is a massive plus
Development agreement- due
I’ll look forward to progressive gains and rewards- you can take whatever view you wish
Atb
Imo
So what is the issue then sharehead? Why did a doubling of GIIP not result in a pro-rata increase in the "value" of the company?
Answer: because it is nothing more than an estimate, extracting gas involves operation risk, political risk, market risk, costs of exploration and appraisal, the time value of money/ high interest rates, opportunity cost AND all of these increase significantly with the "time to market" element; if it is going to take 10 years to monetise the asset those same risks are far greater than they are if it it only a two year time horizon. One of Aminex's problems has always been that it has been impossible to determine what that time line is! Everything happens on the "never-never". Monetising those assets is so distant a prospect that is has next to no material value.
Not really true I don’t think
There’s lots of shares in oil and gas and gold with no revenue and higher mcaps
And what has it done for the sp so far? Not a lot. And nor will it until they can monetise it.
What it shows is that the resource is major