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Agreed. Energy security is paramount at the moment. Even in the UK.
Any further escalation in the Middle east will set fuel prices on an upward trajectory for us all.
The green light will be given due to the lack of Foreign Direct Investment due to the constant power outages in the country
This is why, at least in my opinion, the green light will given. They’re really struggling.
C’mon Hasina, make the only decision there is!!!!
Wow:
The newly built 1,320 megawatt Payra thermal power plant belonging to the Bangladesh-China Power Company Limited (BCPCL) might go out of operation after a couple of weeks because of the non-availability of coal. The BCPCL does not have enough funds to import coal. The China National Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CMC) has been making available funds to the BCPCL for importing coal. Now the CMC has written to the power company to pay USD293 million that has fallen due on account of coal import. It reportedly has refused to give any fresh loan unless and until the arrear money is paid.
……
https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/opinions/power-sector-in-grip-of-a-dollar-crisis
Just to add. GKP was 13 years ago. Anyone bearing a grudge after all these years isn’t balanc.
I appreciate your candour.
Agreed mankini. We are on the same team after all.
GP, we had our differences in the past. I’m not going to drag up the past though. I can’t be bothered with all that nonsense nowadays 😂
Bygones be bygones 👍
Only important thing now is SoD approval in the not too distant future 😄
Mankini, I think it’s the insinuation that somehow have done something wrong which is a problem.
I’m always confident with my investments.
I wouldn’t be here otherwise.
Nice summary Searcher.
Holidays done - onwards and upwards for a decent week next week.
Hopefully we’ll have some meaningful news coming out of Bangla 👍
Mankiniparty - “ Hope that clears up this pressing information you seek 👍”
Pmsl…..👏👏
Nice summary Searcher, all bodes well for us long suffering 😂👍
Yes he was Ginty.
Hope that clears up this pressing information you seek 👍
Exactly Crowfoot, not all of them will be dilutive.
In the grand scheme of things, we do not need that much money. It is not as if we are paying for a speculative drilling campaign.
The fund raise is a really interesting scenario as nearly any other company on AIM would be sold down and shorted to hell for admitting they need to raise money over the next couple of months. I certainly wouldn't mind it right now just to get it out of the way. If they manage to get the proposal signed beforehand I don't really see why any dilution should be necessary. Surely they will have multiple parties wanting a slice of the pie with a variety of funding options. GLA
GPback
You failed to reply to my question.
you used to post on the iii board as Gintyp yes or no ??
Although the company states that it has to raise finance, it has mentioned that there are people already interested in doing this.
We are still looking at setting up two further joint ventures with other companies to move the overburden and set up exit routes for the coal.
I would not be surprised if someone "buys in" to get first mover advantage and make the project more attractive.
If we think that someone has been building a stake recently, we will not have any problem.
Anyway now that Eid is over, I would expect things to start picking up.
Searcher
I very much endorse your conclusion. Over the many years I have been invested in this I have stated my belief that they will not make the final submission until they know it will be approved. It seems we are very close to that point. It’s the way these things work, extensive dialog with the government to ensure it meets all their requirements. The Government will know exactly what’s in the proposal before it’s formally submitted essentially for rubber stamping.
I hope it’s very soon and before any fund raising in order to minimise dilution. But I agree with you that I would not be concerned if they raised £1 million next week at 8p although with the current level of interest I don’t think they need to discount it from the current sp. I think they could easily raise the money on primary bid without having to go to the usual placing people.
….. Any drops will get quickly bought up. Stocks need to pause or even retrace, Gcm have done it previously on the way to 330p and before that 940p, but if this is a GO this time, as we collectively think it is, then the retraces will be short, difficult to trade and buy back into increasing the risk of losing position.
It IS trading diffently which has been obvious to me. But m taking that as a huge positive. Previously we haven’t got the GL. This looks more and more like a solid rise based upon positions being taken, maybe a large individual adding significantly.
Previously we’d have blown through 10p and risen massively (70-80p on China deal). I’m taking a massive positive that it is acting differently this time.
GL coming?
Won’t we have access to $1 billion?
Just saying.
Then there’s sale of all the over burden products mentioned. Significant cash low generating.
Doze…
You state ..
“If GCM are to be part of the mix going forward then Tang should raise finance post approval since we will need the working capital to boost the team and avoid unnecessary dilution.”
Trust me, if we get approval before a fund raise is done, then the SP will be a hell of a lot higher than it is now, so dilution will be even lower than I have suggested…
Hasina's new year speech to the nation was to build on progress achieved but make even better progress and she also said earlier she is forging closer links with China. Phulbari is the means to her ends so the pressure is on Nasrul Hamid, state minister of the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources, to live up to his status with the means put at his disposal.
If GCM are to be part of the mix going forward then Tang should raise finance post approval since we will need the working capital to boost the team and avoid unnecessary dilution.
RIDER, the difference with China is they are also expanding their clean energy generation to fall in line with net zero targets.
'Wind and solar would make up around 40% of installed power generation capacity by the end of 2024, compared with coal’s expected 37%.'
Bangladesh however have 80% power generation from coal and gas (21% and 59%). Unfortunately they've made crazy decisions over the last 2 decades and are now skint and must use their own recourses. If I lived there personally I'd just like to able turn a computer on when I wanted to or boil some water and probably would be less concerned about emission targets.
We're so privileged to live in the UK even though all I ever hear is how bad things are (NHS etc).
Anyway we should hear something pretty soon. GLA
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2024/0206/Despite-record-coal-use-China-on-track-to-meet-green-energy-targets
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bangladesh-power-system-gets-dirtier-rapid-coal-use-growth-maguire-2024-04-04/
Conclusion
The above is an honest NO B/S review of how I see things as we stand, but because I keep coming back to the main question for me, would Nasrul Hamid and PowerChina publicly state that they were going to present the project to PM Hasina if they were not confident of the result being positive, I don’t think that they would, I have therefore decided that although nothing is 100%, I’m probably happier with my investment and feel more confident now than I have ever done!
I’ll be holding unless I feel the situation changes! 😊
Final Thought..
It really is each to their own now to make their decision especially with the conclusion hopefully coming sooner rather than later, but GL in what you decide…
Sorry for the long post :)
• At the AGM, Gary confirmed that they had done a lot on the ground with the Phulbari people and within the interview from Pappi it was said that the people of Phulbari had been offered 5 times the value of their property if they relocated, which they have said they do want to do! This point is important because Anu his mob of outside influences used them as an argument back in 2006 - In fact I can’t remember when now, and can’t find the article but I am sure that there was an occasion when a anti-mining group turned up in the village and the were chased out by the locals!
• Another massive positive, is that Anu and his anti-mining group have been very very quiet recently, in fact in one of the reports he even acknowledged that the government had not dealt with the energy crisis properly, so they now had little choice, but to now make another bad decision (in his mind) and now go ahead with developed of Phulbari as well as all other mines within the country.
Small negative seen by some (not by me) –
• Is the placing that we know is going to happen sometime before the end of “May”, IF we don’t have news form the government before then, which will obviously change everything!
• The placing as voted for at the AGM, can only be for a maximum of £1 million more if they have to take into consideration the other 500k already raised earlier, so, if done on Monday at a 25% discount from Fridays close of 9.50p will be at 7.12p and only be about 13 million extra shares in issue, this is nothing in the big scheme of things and, as the previous fundraiser the SP will only drop slightly back anyway so will not hit the 7p imo, I believe that because we know that news could come at any time the scramble for buying shares will be intense so I would expect a quick bounce back after a very short period, I also believe that most trying to buy any quantity cheaper will be unsuccessful because of the shortage of shares now believed to be in issue. This is obviously only if the F/R was done on Monday, if left until the end of May, who knows where the SP will be!
Actual Negative
• Although other options do appear to be very thin on the ground now because it seems Bangladesh simply cannot afford to continue to import coal to feed existing and newly up and coming coal fired plants, and although the Energy Minister Nasrul Hamid has been very positive about Phulbari and open pit mining as well as mining other coal mines within the country, and I honestly just cannot believe that he or PowerChina would be presenting this project to the PM if they were not 100% in their minds that they will get approval, it still does all comes down to one person’s decision!