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Benjamin Graham is one of the legendary old school value investors. He was Warren Buffet's mentor.
I'm still looking for the first share graph that resembles a snowflake, then I'll be good to go.
The joke should have come before the apology, it switched order, how'd it do taht ? lol
Seriously though, I hate those who write books, divulge their strategies, by the time I read it, everybody already knows and it's not a secret, lol. I'll let you into a big secret, which makes me sound quite mad, i knaow, but I'm working on fractals, not fibinache graphs or technical stuff, it's very early on in its development though.
Sorry Isengard, lol.
Yes, books like that can be very heavy.
Benjamin Graham talks about dollar/pounds cost averaging in his book. So it certainly holds some weight.
Macroeconomics eh ? Lol. I didn't even get a maths 'o' level, but worked with numbers (not in any meaningful or important way, lol) ever since leaving school, real life numbers are much more fun (fun ? can't believe I said that !) than they were in school.
I couldn't lecture on it. But I know a little about it from reading news articles and watching the News etc my macroeconomic lectures are bit of blur to me. graphs and squiggly lines etc lol
Yeah, I saw that blackrock when you posted it a week or so ago, it's as good a strategy as any, and better than most, i would still like to find the ultimate crystal ball though, lol.
andy.p, if it's there to be drunk, screw the spelling, lol. Have a great holiday. Hope we bump into one another in the future. all the very best.
I agree, it's not the same, 'averaging down', or 'buying on the dips', it is different to the pound cost averaging, you're playing a safer strategy, and long term, I think a good one. If we split the difference between the recession cycles, at 7 1/2 years we should be in one about now, probably wouild be if it wasn't for the oil price decline, we live in starnge times though, with central banks experimenting as they are with money printing under the guise of quantative easing, you could probably lecture me in that subject though, lol.
you always here the cliche of seek professional advice or seek financial advice. Blackrock an investment company endorses this strategy. http://www.blackrock.co.uk/content/groups/uksite/documents/literature/1111079349.pdf
One thing I don't do (and still haven't worked out if it's the right strategy or not, percentage wise) is buy inot a share that has already risen by a certain percentage over a set period of time, if a share takes my eye, I wait to see if it will drop, I won't give timelines or percentages, what I have found though (though not scientifically verified, lol) is that you rarely 'miss the boat' if you have the patience to wait for a drop. I think 'once in a lifetime opportunities' to get in at a certain level are very rare. In my opinion, and that's all it is, with a little bit of conjecture thrown in, lol. These are just my thoughts, which I thnk accrding to earlier proclamations by m make me an idiot, or fraud, can't remember what I said now, lol.
my research suggest a recession 1 every decade on average. July 1981 – November 1982: 15 months July 1990 – March 1991: 8 months March 2001 – November 2001: 8 months December 2007 – June 2009: 18 months Maybe another one in 2017 lol
I would argue its not quite the same averaging down. if you would invest 5k in a lump sum. at say 10p. with PCA your investing the 5k in a 12 month period. With lump sum investing you would invest 5k in one go. and then attempt to average down with additional money if the stock plummets. Pound cost averaging is just drip feeding regardless of how the price moves. so you buy more shares when the price is down and less when the price is up. so it helps to provide smoother returns. But I i can't say how effective this is. I am experiment with small money with Fitb.
Hi Ainsley. I scrolled & I got you. Just replied to Peteb though with what might be possible, so that will be near the top (under this) with the title Admin - I think. Have a good holiday, but mind the midges. BT.
Thanks andy.p, see I can talk sense, er, sometimes, lol. And NOOOO !!! Don't you dare get banned (again) lol. Come talk sense with me and Isengard. Isengard and I.
I can't remember who, but one financial 'expert' (well probably a few of them) reckon recessions come in roughly 5 year cycles, I'd like to be disciplined enough to (and have the free cash to) wait for those corrections, but theory is one thing...lol.
Peteb, As I said before, you have 600 members, so why not simply e-mail them with the news (some will no doubt be on holiday and not be aware yet) and ask whether any of them have constructive suggestions or know of any options still open to shareholders to influence a more positive outcome for all shareholders ? That would be inviting ASOG members to share their views - some of which might be highly informed - which you could then articulate. But don't ask, don't get. --- ASOG was formed to articulate the views of private retail share holders + just what is the message you wish ASOG to deliver
Yeah, that's a good strategy, I also average down occasionally, that can be dangerous though, I try to find out why the share is falling, it's one thing to lose your original investment, but to carry on ploughing in and lose that too, I've had that happen once, but that was because I knew better than the analysts and 'derampers' lol.
That's why I switched now to pound cost averaging instead of lump sum investing. Because timing the entry and exit is not an exact science so easy and more effortless to just do pound cost averaging. Just trialling this with FITB. if it works out I could be doing it on all my investments going forwards.
I've held shares that have lost a lot, and held them for a few years, until they finally give me a gain, I try to pick shares that pay at least a little dividend, of course, if the dividend is cut, or suspended, the share price drops, it can be a vicious circle. Then there's the small company that takes my eye, or a newcomer (to the headlines), they're the buggers, lol, how to value them, or how much faith to put in the valuation.
The irony is, as things stand, if you can pick a winner in this environment, you'd probably do quite well, but then the question is when is the right time (I've given up long ago trying to find the 'right time' lol), is it next week or in 3 months time ? Or somewhere in between, lol. I think the hardest thing to do is sell a share you're losing on, when I first started (about 16 years ago) I told myself 'it's not a real loss until I sell'. for me, that philosophy was a mistake
i took the NAV at face value based on August 14 accounts. when I saw all the "warners" for a lack of a better term. I thought how can they be de ramping a share with the NAVPS of whatever it was. it just didn't make any sense so i shrugged it all off. and i knew crude slump was cause the company to tank. but i invested on the basis of it being a recovery share. but then when i made a big loss i didn't want to sell it thinking i can recover my losses if I hold on longer. before you know it it spirals down then its suspended lol.