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The Japanese are surely not big enough for the cash bid everybody's dreaming off. Even around 40 it would have to be a sort of merger, so getting stock in a company without a listing in europe. Anyone fancy that? I'm not in any case. Sure you may hope it will flush out another bidder, with Pfizer pretty much being the only one, but those easy targets of mid to high 50's are, for now, way too optimistic.
It is interesting to note that (now, after today�s big rise) Takeda�s maket cap is actually lower than that of Shire even after its fall over recent months...
So went over �58 then( my personal best short), on significantly lower revenues but co made actual profits then. Mcap over �45bln. Fast forward couple years, relentless acquisitions-overpaying for those, debt ( not inexpensive) pile, almost double of number shares Isued , still no divi to sing about, significantly reduced bods shareholding participation....on a bright side, Molder and Redtom, bod did very well with their remuneration packaging and 1/4 price share options. When looking to guess sp price and potential offer to be made look at mcap v total no shares. IMO offer can not be less than abs few years ago, which is about this level, but can�t be much more than 10-15 above it. �45 max and should it achieve �50+ I�ll take another big shot and carry it over onto new owner should they be creasy enough to pay so much for shp with all the outstanding issues. That being said, it would suit me perfectly if sp should come to that level. Sill holding on to my hat, ride on rainy day , rodeo, rodeo...
SP was in excess of �55 less than 3 years ago, based on significantly lower revenues.
IMO I think a bid will only be in the low 40s and not the 50s that some have suggested. Debt, competitive issues, over-payment for Baxalta, division split, will all be factors. If I was a betting person I would guess at 4400p. I would be very happy with that price. Difficult to see much higher than that. Thoughts?
SHIRE SUM-OF-THE-PARTS VALUATION 4,300 PENCE, JEFFERIES SAYS. I sense this will flush out another buyer
Takeda, Japan's largest drugs firm by sales, has said it is considering a possible offer for the UK's Shire. The Takeda announcement sent shares in the UK pharmaceuticals company up as much as 25% in morning trading. Big drugs names have long been rumoured to have been circling Shire after a takeover by US firm Abbvie fell through in 2014. In mid-December last year, speculation on a possible takeover bid sent Shire shares to the top of the FTSE 100. Takeda said its offer "is at a preliminary and exploratory stage and no approach has been made to the board of Shire". However, Takeda said it was interested in the firm to strengthen its cancer, stomach and brain drugs offerings. Takeda must announce that it intends to make a firm offer for Shire by the end of 25 April. CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson said the interest in Shire "is part of a wider story" in the pharmaceutical industry. He said plans by Amazon, investor Warren Buffett and JPMorgan Chase to create a company to provide employees with affordable healthcare had helped prompt further consolidation in the pharmaceutical sector. Shire is incorporated in Jersey, and has its headquarters in Dublin. However, most of its 24,000 employees are located in the US. It was started in 1986 by a small group of entrepreneurs who started selling calcium treatments for osteoporosis.
Over 8m already...
Takeda believes that a potential transaction with Shire presents an opportunity to advance Takeda�s stated Vision 2025, build on its current strong momentum, and create a truly global, value-based Japanese biopharmaceutical leader. In particular, a transaction with Shire would: � strengthen Takeda�s core therapeutic areas of oncology, GI and neuroscience � accelerate Takeda�s vision to be a leader in specialized medicines that are transformative to patients through the addition of Shire�s leading global rare disease franchise � further enhance Takeda�s robust R&D strategy, concentrating on key therapeutic areas � reinforce a strong and large-molecule focused late-stage pipeline within Takeda�s core therapeutic areas to complement Takeda�s own pipeline and discovery capabilities � balance Takeda�s geographic focus to align with the market opportunity in the U.S. � drive financial value from a strong combined financial profile Clearly defined strategic and financial objectives are core to Takeda�s disciplined approach to acquisitions, including in relation to its dividend policy and credit rating, which are well-established. Any potential offer for Shire, if made, would have to align with this strict investment criteria.
rumour I believe. Expect rival bidders to finally emerge. �50+
It is a larger player day traders dream - ie those with with DMA and not via broker:RSPs for the typical PI - it is a little odd in that no approach has been made it seems but in the meantime the company you were thinking of taking over is now c20% more expensive. Having read their full statement they have strict M&A criteria for acquisitions and dividends etc so this has a lot more exploring before it may (or may not) happen...in the meantime expect big swings up and down! ATB. Scfc
Not got a clue where this ones going to finish up at, its up and down like a yo yo
closed my short opened a long for same @3685. its grade trading the swings. I was on the road when it hit the highs :-(
Hi Foxi, why didnt you open short when it touched 38.25? Would've been more profitable for you buddy! Anyway good luck with your shorts. But i do hope for my sake it touches 40 odd before it makes you u any money at 25�. :-))
Indeed. At such a low price I can see why the rumours have been around for a while...Takeda were mentioned sometime ago but this time they have said briefly they are making exploratory enquiries. So we can expect a big fall if they decide �no� or a big jump (again) if they move forward with a formal approach. The big boys with DMA will be making a lot of money bringing it up and down...a lot of brokers using RSPs won�t even be offering a market until things settle. Who knows what will happen, none of us do and we are all speculating! ATB, Scfc
I completely agree with you. As u may have noticed fom my old posts, i m already balls deep in it and therefore biased. But the fact remains that shire was subjected to bid a while back - Abvi - and now a new player is considering it. There must be something very attractive about shire that keeps bringing up bidders. Some posters here have been alleging false accountig criminal directors and so on and so forth. I may not be as experienced investors as some here but i have seen a few bid scenarios. This approach may not lead to anything but until then sp will rise and make some peeps decent money. Imho .All the best :-)
i am taking an open view to this takeover rumour but be careful not to get your fingers burnt.
maybe those who were given a nudge about takeover rumours. either way, mystery solved
isnt going to happen. Debt pile + oter issues doesnt make this a viable takeover. Im short @ �25 pp on 3752p
Didnt know takeda Ireland actually has a plant in Ireland, so think that this whisper about possible approach may be true.
May happen but clearly as a shareholder you are biased, inevitably. Reality is the SP may well move either way depending on how serious Takeda are/value they place on it and the SHP reaction, etc. From the news I�ve seen it is very early days and hence the massive jump and then biggish pull back...it will remain pretty volatile for sometime one expects until clarity is seen. Lots of speculative buying and then selling ahead no doubt as well. ATB, Scfc
IMO this will prompt other interested big guns to come out or at least start preparing for bidding war....time to go in balls deep! All IMHO :-))
looks like this is just slowly going back down
Not quite. No approach yet. �Takeda says it is at a preliminary and exploratory stage in considering a bid, and no approach has been made to the Shire board�. So it could clearly go either way, depending on the outcome/next steps, etc. ATB, Scfc
This is d year shp could be bought, nex year might not be so good for equities. Shp bod has engendered and over engendered financials, 800 points swing, just so far, is tempting to finish working day or week or year, before 11am. Now sp goes down a bit, than when Nasdaq opens will go up a bit,IMO, buckle up and dig those spurs in, hands on hats and enjoy rodeo. I reduced my long, happy to leave it on autopilot and go out enjoying the sunshine. Dam, it is pising down?