0.20 has been very strong so far as psychologically its a strong support number, however, mark my words, when the sp gets to the end of this current triangle, a new low will be formed.
Question: Do all .20 share prices receive very strong support?
“when the sp gets to the end of this current triangle a new low will be formed”. This line is called Affirming the consequent a form of non Sequitur.
Could it be possible that the “ triangle” not reach its end because of RNS ?
Can it be reasonably concluded that the share price just go sideways, then up?
"mark my words": Phrase said before or after a prediction or declaration to mean: "You should write down what I say (mentally or literally), because it will come true or be something that is unforgettable."
Intended to convey great conviction, as though your statement could be doubted or denied by others.
Look at the big drop that happened between Jan 2013 and Apr 2013. That happened after it reached the end of the "triangle" at the time, creating new lows of 0.20 which is where we are at now. Without a doubt a good chartist looks to the past for similar instances to make an application of the knowledge for the future. Question : Is it relevant?
See the red lines, bottom is the support, Top is the resistance. Otc hasnt been able, due to the sector, to break out of that since 2010. The mining industry is very cyclical, and, in my opinion, it will need at least another 3-4 years.
Argument by Generalisation this line draws on broad conclusions from instances on a graph.
“due to the sector “,”it will need at least another 3-4 years”. However the statement, “in my opinion” is correct. Question: Can a mining company break a trend?
Been going on about this so called "triangle" for nearly half a decade now. Chiefo will remember, he is the one that did most of the laughing at the time.
(Argumentum ad antiquiatatem) this line implies acceptance because “for nearly half a decade now”.
People can be sucker in because it is old. The question one must ask themselves is, if you have been saying this for the last five years can`t you come up with something better by now. Age does not give authority facts do. One must give a reason to use the triangle tool in the present context of the historical, present and future nature of the share. Graph patterns are correctly interpreted in context, never alone.
May my assessment of today's stock market action be based upon the facts, all of the facts and nothing but the facts. May I not be influenced by fear, greed or the ill - advised comments of others, which may be made in their interests and not my own. May I take into account the past history laid before me on this chart, and may my assessment be based on facts and my knowledge. And please, if possible, never on my emotions.
Just a question though, with a company like OTC valued at 3-5 Mill, with the number of projects they have... Whats there to stop one of the big boys from buying it up on the cheap? When a sector starts to pick up it normally goes through a phase of consolidation and OTC looks like a good gamble for its current price.
Tnx Jim. Youre also correct, but what goes up and down is due to supply and demand. The market corrects itself to balance the two sides. At the moment there is more supply than demand so the market is going lower to find the demand. If the market matched itself next week for example, on the back of no news and no change in the sector, you wouldnt have buyers coming in from thin air buying up to 0.30. You would have the market getting increasingly worried and selling below 0.20 as they received enough warnings about it. And this is where you will see the big volume breaking out of the triangle and going lower. We are running out of buyers, not sellers. If we did have buyers we would be going up, not down.
Warren buffetts theory is not viable in AIM. He invested in low risk stocks like Coca cola, Disney and Tesco. If he invested in AIM he would have had a heart attack by now!
True, but test the support enough times and it will break. At the moment we have more sellers than buyers and hence we are descending. 0.20p, as I said in a previous post, is a very psychologically strong support number (same for 1, 0.50, 0.20, 0.10) and it has been able to hold off further selling at that price, but test it again and the sellers will win that battle as buying is only at 0.20 (aka no upward momentum). I would have applied the same reasoning for the opposite at a resistance point.
The 200MA had to level off at some point, its the best part of a whole year (200 days) and there has been limited volatility.
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