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With the Company's name and TIDM shortly being changed to Yourgene Health plc and YGEN respectively, the "necessary administrative processes" alluded to in the 25th Oct RNS could allude to the Articles of Association having to be updated with the new Company Name. I also would have suspected that the TIDM might also require a publicity campaign to publicise the ticker symbol change which may or may not include other items. Although the RNS said "shortly" when this will happen who knows however I suspect we would get a RNS next week to publicise the date.
Florida I think after 5 weeks of this most people will have made up their mind one way or the other as to what has happened and what could have been done differently. Suffice to say that the share price appreciation in the months before the settlement was announced does suggest it was not a sudden change of heart on Illumina's side which was not worked to with Premaitha's solicitors. As you are aware as well the settlement announcement RNS was very brief and had led to many queries as to the ongoing relationship with TMO.
My main focus is on the future as the past has just created (another) buying opportunity for new entrants. I remain of the view that the current sp seems over sold post settlement, new oncology service and placing. Hopefully the gap in the next week will be closed to AR's additional 500k purchase price this week at 10p.
With the BoD already publicly distancing themselves from Finncap's research notes and suggesting that this will have to be updated shortly following a trading update which could (or could not) also include TMO warrants and debt relief hopefully we can put this episode behind us shortly.
I am actually quite happy with the name change as it does cover the announced new oncology lab service and expected reproductive health products. The other problem with the old ticker is that it would appear on the #NIPT twitter feed and wind the Downsyndrome groups up
All the best
I'm confused about preparations, Are you asking everyone to believe after 4 years of negotiations the BOD would be in a position to know when Illumina would suddenly change its mind. You are in fact saying they should have put aside an additional £2.5 million in preparation for the eventual settlement 4 years ago. It is not IMV, good business acumen to put aside substantial financial backup for an event that may or may not happen when finances are already stretched.
I'm confused about better preperations. Are you asking everyone to believe after 4 years of negotiations the BOD would be in a position to know when Illumina would suddenly change its mind. You are in fact saying they should have put aside an additional £2.5 million in preparation for the eventual settlement 4 years ago. It is not IMV, good business acumen to put aside substantial financial backup for an event that may or may not happen when finances are already stretched.
I have to agree with Twix and that the current sp has more to do with the BoD than the market and I too would be extremely disappointed if we did not see better days before the 6th.
Shareholders had waited nearly 4 years for the litigation headwinds to pass and some better preparation for potential funding requirements and also in the communication of the strategic benefits of the deal to PIs should have been expected.
However these frustrations of LTHs now emerge as buying opportunities for others. I remain of the view that the current sp seems over sold given that the litigation has been settled and funding secured. With AR's purchase at 10p it seems inevitable that the gap will be closed eventually to this sp floor now that the placing period has been completed.
The expected material development that would have caused a trading update before the AGM I suspect is still being worked which should lead Finncap to revise their current pessimistic price target of 16p upwards within the next few weeks. Not to mention the probable debt forgiveness and exercise of TMO warrants (likely the 75m shares up to 12p). Premaitha - accidently - now stands very uniquely within the NIPT as being able to supply CE-IVD tests on both Illumina and TMO sequencers. The non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) market is expected to reach USD 2.88 Billion by 2021 by when Premaitha's new Illumina CE-IVD will be launched.
Given that test volumes were 50k for 2018 I suspect that with the lifting of the litigation plus Asian expansion this should be over 80k for 2019. I can only track down test NIPT test volumes from 2016 cross-industry to see how this 80k should compare.
(a) Ariosa (Roche) including licensees: 213,300 tests (22% Market share)
(b) Sequenom: 153,900 tests
(c) Verinata (Illumina): 192,000 tests
(d) IP Pool (Sequenom & Illumina): 489,300 tests (50% Market share)
(e) Natera including licensees: 254,900 tests (26% Market share)
So my rough feel is that depending on the revised trading results Premaitha should be comfortably over 5% of the NIPT market. There is a growing consolidation within the NIPT market Ariosa Diagnostics was acquired by Roche), LifeCodexx was bought by GATC Biotech), Verinata Health, acquired by Illumina, Sequenom was acquired by LabCorp and finally Clarifgo acquired by Agilent Technologies. This combined with the now heavily discounted share price and clear strategic advantage provides opportunities for a 3rd Party to make an offer to clear the TMO warrants floor of 24.6p which I would support given recent events.
I thought you all might be interested with this summery of the market situation, taken from a poster on the Petro Matad site.
"There is not a bear market.
Presently Democrat supporting entities in the USA are trying to crash the markets, to take away the feel good factor before 6th Nov USA mid term elections.
Republican supporting entities in the USA are trying to lower the price of oil to make people have more cash in their pockets ahead of the 6yh Nov mid term elections.
Saudi (who are friends with Trump) have suddenly started talking about extra production) which if course helps lower oil prices.
Once the 6th Nov mid terms are out of the way............expect the US markets to bounce back up strong and also the oil price will start to climb upwards to 100 US$.
In the meantime..........enjoy the falling prices until 6th November, then buy strong and hard across the board imo."
I thought you all might be interested with this summery of the market situation, taken from a poster on the Petro Matad site.
"There is not a bear market.
Presently Democrat supporting entities in the USA are trying to crash the markets, to take away the feel good
ADVERTISEMENT
factor before 6th Nov USA mid term elections.
Republican supporting entities in the USA are trying to lower the price of oil to make people have more cash in their pockets ahead of the 6yh Nov mid term elections.
Saudi (who are friends with Trump) have suddenly started talking about extra production) which if course helps lower oil prices.
Once the 6th Nov mid terms are out of the way............expect the US markets to bounce back up strong and also the oil price will start to climb upwards to 100 US$.
In the meantime..........enjoy the falling prices until 6th November, then buy strong and hard across the board imo."
Absolutely right Flipper. The RNS of the 4th October is in effect a contract for the distribution of a new product, although having said that they did not sell it to us as a new product, more so as a new contract. I have to agree a significant material change is in the offing at some point and could well be the debt deal. However, to appease the man and my good friend with the doddering old git hat on, I will say this is all just guess work. I think we all agree the ingredients are in place to move this forward, we are just waiting for a positive market environment and a trigger to set it off.
Have to agree with some of Twix's frustration though some in the Company would say that they have just launched a new oncology product in the last month. I think however we are still expecting another reproductive health product by year end though. Shame that the trading update suggested at the Investor presentation didn't come at the AGM but suggests that some material change is still being worked. I suspect that the suggested revised trading figures from Finncap in the next few weeks will be better than before.
For me though it just seems a bit negative when AR has spent £50k buying more subscriptions at 10p to an already over-subscribed conscription that the current sp is at a 15% discount to that as the Company did not need the extra £50k
I agree we are in a better position and at last the future is in our own hands. Markets havnt dropped nearly 50% have they! Stop making excuses for what is still under- delivery at this moment in time to expectations. We need to follow through THIS year as clearly many including TW expected if he's not to have been misled for the umpteenth time by those self same expectations that excite and then disappoint!
Sure it has an impact and so would delivery on all the promise and expectations . The core reason isn't the wider market if we had newsflow, contracts , better figures or figures advised, trading forecast, new product. The elastic timelines need urgent ATTN versus unyielding spin and promise that seems always to be found in the waiting room! Aimho
The FTSE 100 was down 100 this morning and is still hovering around 90 down. You cannot expect this not to have an impact on AIM stock. As I said yesterday, if you have a list you can see a sea of red clearly. Nothing wrong with our little company, all companies are effected.
Yes this seems really negative and more driven by sentiment which has not been helped by the narrative. With AR buying 500k this week further at 10p, Steve Myers purchase of 350k shares it is getting a bit silly.
I also think that given the new oncology product which was announced when the share price was 10p and that we are expecting a new reproductive health product and new trading forecast plus target price this seems overtly negative.
Be good to see some evidence reflected in the abysmal share price! Lost approaching 50% iro a month and news prospects remain in a promise.
I agree AR did make clear the debt deal was pursued but did not stamp a defined period to complete. I am anticipating good things from this so called new strategy and feel sure all will be revealed within the next few days.
Best of luck
Has anyone any information on the AGM today? Did they get grilled?
Hey Florida,
Yes you are right my post at 11:49 was written in haste. The BoD had not publicly promised the TMO exercise of warrants and potential debt more relief but rather publicly committed their best endeavours to complete said exercise by the end of year. In the same video they suggested that a trading statement would be issued by the AGM with a revised / updated company assessment by early November. So hopefully these will come soon for better days with a gradually settling down of sentiment. Some interesting late reported spreads it seems as well today.
All the best
Flipper - firstly, debt relief with TF was not promised. The company is however, in negotiations to manifest some kind of deal.
Regarding the present SP, IMV every shareholder should, as I do, follow a string of specifically selected shares, maybe 50 or 60 and monitor only those shares. This maximises the limitation the amount of information one person can accumulate over a given time and allows the opportunity to evaluate how specific market movements effect those shares on a daily/weekly basis. Everyone should know that within the last 2 weeks the US has suffered overwhelming drops which in turn effect the Asian and European markets dramatically. Our FTSE 100 is no exception, dropping 700 points and this shows clearly in red across the 65 companies I watch. What is significant is that the bulk of those companies have fallen far in excess of/in comparison to Premaitha. Premaitha has in fact hovered around the 9p pre issue/placing price that gives me tremendous confidence when the market stabilises to see our share price brought back to its original pre placing 15p.I am also confused as to what additional information you were waiting for besides the new strategy for the company, the potential debt deal with TF and the updated/ revised company assessment by Fincapp.
Yes, bring on the sale at 24p, I'm all for it. The longer we sit at a low price the chance of a takeover increases.
Kessman - I feel very disappointed that you did not achieve 7.7p at the last opportunity. Maybe if you scream your negativity a little louder from a higher rooftop you might just get another chance.
So Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing NIPT, what we do, is to be changed to the amorphous YGEN
Flipper - firstly, debt relief with TF was not promised. The company is however, in negotiations to manifest some kind of deal.
Regarding the present SP, IMV every shareholder should, as I do, follow a string of specifically selected shares, maybe 50 or 60 and monitor only those shares. This maximises the limitation the amount of information one person can accumulate over a given time and allows the opportunity to evaluate how specific market movements are effect those shares on a daily/weekly basis. Everyone should know that within the last 2 weeks the US has suffered overwhelming drops which in turn effect the Asian and European markets dramatically. Our FTSE 100 is no exception, dropping 700 points and this shows clearly in red across the 65 companies I watch. What is significant is that the bulk of those companies have fallen far in excess of/in comparison to Premaitha. Premaitha has in fact hovered around the 9p pre issue/placing price that gives me tremendous confidence when the market stabilises to see our share price brought back to its original pre placing 15p.I am also confused as to what additional information you were waiting for besides the new strategy for the company, the potential debt deal with TF and the updated/ revised company assessment by Fincapp.
Yes, bring on the sale at 24p, I'm all for it. The longer we sit at a low price the chance of a takeover increases.
Kessman - I feel very disappointed that you did not achieve 7.7p at the last opportunity. Maybe if you scream your negativity a little louder from a higher rooftop you might just get another chance.
What was the point of it? It’s all a bit desperate to keep regurgitating the stuff we already know. Doesn’t Adam Reynolds know any better than to do that?
emotions seem a bit overdone here though I appreciate we were told to expect (bigger and) better news by today.
For me the key thing is the trading update and TMO warrants exercise price and debt relief that shareholders have publicly been promised and in the next few months. If TMO agreed to exercise their warrants up to 12p then the sp would rise to that floor. It would make sense for TMO to excercise their 75m and full 95m shares to prevent a 3rd Party offer.Trading at 8.65p with 2 strategic alliances in the bag it would be surprising if a 3rd party didn't make a low ball offer. I think the trading statement which I had thought would be issued today will initiate a revised revenue forecast.
I personally think however that the best thing for the Company would be a sale in the short term. This happened with Sequenom after their court loss against Roche and I think a TO at the floor of TMO's warrants at 24.6p would be best here.
Yes, flipper and bakky The future looks better than for a long time assuming bod can deliver! Mmm Constant disappointments meanwhile and I expect lots of great promise and spin at agm that lifts spirits . I hope someone asks when this normal service will be replaced by follow through and delivery with increasing shareholder value. Enough pep talks and promises and now litigation free it really is time to match the delivery with the rhetoric.
I have to be honest and say I'm a bit disappointed as was led to believe further material news would be released by today which would have tied in with the (two-tranche) placing strategy. I'm a bit surprised that we did not get the promised trading update this morning neither so not sure whether this will be released at the time of the AGM or some time in the next few days.
I never agreed with the BoD's legal strategy and find their public statements at odds with Judge Carr's reading. That said Dr Little was right in saying that Premaitha have a potentially unique position in the NIPT market of being able to operate across platforms. This is a key strategic advantage. I also especially liked the fact that although Illumina already have their own CE-IVD they have essentially settled with Premaitha to develop a test they have already in part.
The BoD's method of granting options is bit cynical however talking to them this seems to have been driven by efforts to retain/attract talent given the litigation. So in the last 4 years it is noticeable there have been no BoD departures as people jumping ship though many of us would have wanted to give them a big push.
Their presentation to the Investors meeting on the 16th was labelled "Handcuffs Off". Although many LTHs probably feel the reverse to them given the current sp our negativity may be causing us to overlook the set-up for the near future. With the legal settlement and funding behind us we have a probable debt clearance with TMO plus exercising of warrants up to 12p plus revised trading figures and target price. The TMO debt forgiveness is a big coup if the BoD can pull this off after negotiating a settlement with Illumina.
I am a bit surprised with the sp being 15% below the placing price which was already discounted by 19%. Given that AR was further subscribing at this price this week this negativity seems overdone. Also especially so given that the TR1 Holding notice of Steve Myers said that the threshold was crossed on the 23rd October. This suggests that the additional circa 350k shares bought by Steve Myers has also been since the placing.
the biggest problem for me was the very poor ex ceo who led us up the wrong path again and again! Now he is out of the way somewhat I think Lyn Rees can get this really moving.
For the first time in years I can see a way forward and with any future funding (if needed) covered then it can only be positive for me.
Surely now with Illumina done and dusted what else can go wrong? lol.