Well this is not good for us down ever day . I miss Royalmail thought this would be a good buy but I have done it again got share that goes one way down . . One day I may get it right I hope . merry xmas all
For the current financial year ending 31 March 2014, Infinis intends to declare a dividend equivalent to an annual dividend of £55 million adjusted on a pro rata basis for the period from Admission to 31 March 2014. For FY15, the first full financial year after Admission, Infinis intends to declare a dividend to Shareholders of £55 million (representing approximately 18.3 pence per Ordinary Share). Thereafter, Infinis intends to pay dividends twice yearly in July and November, with the approximate proportion of one-third and two-thirds, respectively, of the dividend for the relevant year. 10
Most of the Infinis debt is project financed and thus will be non recourse to the parent. So whilst on a consolidation it is significant on and individual project basis the gearing will typically be 60-75% of the book value. Non recourse financing on wind generates little "profit" in the first few years due to heavy depreciation and finance charges but will deliver a lot of cash to geared equity. Then as the financing cost falls the profits start to flow and catch up with EBITDA. That is how most wind developers work - Infinis, WIND etc. That is not a model that is at all to do with speed of execution. It is simply making sure that the parent has enough liquidity and equity to be able to fund new projects and Infinis has plenty of capacity as after dividends it still generates free cash to equity. Infinis currentlt trades on around 8x EBITDA and that falls fairly quickly. The "going rate" for a new windfarm in the UK is around 9x EBITDA or a ungeared IRR of around 8-8.5%. So sum of parts Infinis is cheap as it is on a free cash flow yield. certainly significantly a better investment than Greencoat. But as I say sentiment is poor right now.
Today 00:50 richard12345 RE: infinis prediction 597.00 No Opinion
returning to my prediction on the infinis IPO, if you view in thread mode you can look at the original post. my prediction was the price would fall on conditional trading and they would cancel the IPO, and that it would only interest me if it fell by a factor of 4! the prediction was on 14th nov, the IPO on 15th. in fact the price didnt fall on the conditional trading, it seems because of the stabilisation fund. but it looks now that my conclusion was right, the IPO was 260p. with the IPO, days 1,2,3 the price ascended to about 272, days 4,5,6 it descended back to 260. days 7 to 13 it descended a bit and returned to 260, day 14 sharp descend to 251, days 15 to 16 descent to 248, and today the 17th day, descent to 240, so it has now descended about 7.7% which may not sound much, but savings today give you 1.5% in an entire year. so that is 5 years savings lost in 17 trading days. this isnt as dramatic as I predicted, but that is because the stock exchange and also the stabilisation fund are designed to prevent rapid ascension or descension. my prediction was just based on the fundamentals in the IPO prospectus. it shows the power of fundamental analysis. which is good for buy/sell/hold/ignore decisions, but less accurate for specific numerics. with IPO applications they actually tell you to read the prospectus before investing, but its a major effort to study the prospectus, and you dont have much time to. I like what the company is, and at a much lower price I may well buy in, because it could become very lucrative. but they have expanded too fast, and they need to slow down considerably. From going through endless loan applications by smaller firms, I know that the best firms expand very gradually. eg they will expand by just recruiting one person. borrowing allows a company to expand faster, but too much borrowing means that the company doesnt generate much profit. whats the point of being big if you dont make money? infinis is a company who have borrowed too much money to expand too quickly. GREED. ultimately expansion needs to be very carefully budgeted and audited. the extreme debt of the government is because of a total lack of budgeting in the past. the previous tories began the problem by converting surpluses into tax cuts, but in fact tax cuts need to be audited very carefully because the economy is cyclic. surpluses are cyclic. so if you cut taxes to the max, public services become unsustainable when the cycle moves to a deficit. wisest thing is to cut taxes very gradually, eg by 1%, and to increase taxes gradually instead of borrowing if public services become unsustainable. or have tax holidays in sunny weather. the taxpayer is better off if you increase taxes rather than borrowing, because the borrowing eventually has to come from cuts to services or tax rises. they all opt for cuts to services
The gov has reduced the CfD feed in tariff rate from £100/MWh to £95 and then to £90. At present Infinis can put projects into the RO or from next year the CfD. In 2017 the RO will be replaced fully by the CfD. From 2014 to 2017 they run in parallel. So the announcement last week has a very limited NPV impact on Infinis but its all about the sentiment. The dps for 2014/15 will be 104% of eps, the payout the next year will be around 80%. The shares are cheap but sentiment at present is poor. So a good buying opportunity.
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