Sound company but perhaps overvalued at IPO and even now.
Mkt cap now of £705M. Net debt £547M. Total enterprise value (EV) £1252M. ADJUSTED EBITDA (after taking out all "one-off" costs) £148M. Subtract annual maintenance capex of £17M. gives recurring REAL EBITDA of c£130M.
Therefore valued at c9.6x REAL ADJUSTED EBITDA which may be OK for high growth but likely not for a company with declining assets.
Yes agreed that landfill does say 65% of ebitda and that is in decline. Wind will partly compensate but the cash is probably enough to pay the divi for a few years albeit costs will fall as wind developments costs (capitalised but still cash out) fall ditto o&m. So I think it's ok for a bit but still better value than greencoat which is simply an annuity income stream for which you pay 2%!!
My view of the flaw in Infinisis is that, ironically, it is NOT infinite but its assets -especially landfill- have a very finite life. On current EBITDA earning measures it looks OK but this excludes DA (depreciation and amortization) which are not cashflow but are important, in my view, because they capture the fact that company's assets have limited life. In my, non-expert, opinion Full Year EBITDA will be c£130M. But net of maintenance capex (mentioned in prospectus and similar to ops cost) of c£15M and interest of c£45M, INFI is left with c£70M to pay an annual divi of c£55m. Moreover there will be downward pressure on earnings from end-of-life assets and I am concerned that this pressure will be felt on dividends which is the main attraction.
The point is that the embedded generation of Infinis can probably support an 18p + dividend. If Camoron and his idiotic chums get in then Infinis will have to slash overhead. Go greencoat yields 5% and Infinis 9%. Both are wrong and both should be around 7% in my book.
Infinis Energy PLC (LON:INFI)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating restated by research analysts at RBC Capital in a report released on Friday. They currently have a GBX 280 ($4.71) target price on the stock. RBC Capital’s target price would indicate a potential upside of 35.27% from the stock’s previous close.
Infinis Energy PLC (LON:INFI) opened at 209.00 on Friday. Infinis Energy PLC has a 1-year low of GBX 196.80 and a 1-year high of GBX 276.75. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 214. and a 200-day moving average of GBX 240.6.
Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Liberum Capital reiterated a “hold” rating on shares of Infinis Energy PLC in a research note on Friday, May 16th. Separately, analysts at Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Infinis Energy PLC to a “buy” rating in a research note on Thursday, May 15th. They now have a GBX 220 ($3.70) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Deutsche Bank cut their price target on shares of Infinis Energy PLC from GBX 250 ($4.21) to GBX 220 ($3.70) in a research note on Thursday, May 1st. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock. One research analyst has rated the stock with a hold rating and four have issued a buy rating to the stock. The company has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average target price of GBX 270 ($4.54).
True but there does appear to be a little support for onshore renewable energy. If it was to get back to 270 that would do for me. have copied in an article below sorry its a lengthy one, it does look like the industry is lobbying for support.
Association RenewableUK has said that if the UK is to meet its legally-binding target of generating 15% of all energy from renewable sources by 2020, more onshore wind may be needed to make up for a possible shortfall in other parts of the energy mix.
The warning follows comments by the Chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, Lord Deben, in The Times, in which he stated: “I’m happy that we have already got enough onshore wind to 2020 to meet that part of the portfolio.”
RenewableUK points out that not all the onshore wind projects which have been approved will actually get built - about 10% will drop away for financial and other reasons between now and 2020. This means the UK could lose more than 450 megawatts of onshore wind capacity – enough to power nearly a quarter of a million British homes. So the pipeline of approvals will need to be extended to make up for this.
As well as generating renewable electricity from wind and other clean sources, the UK has committed to produce a significantly higher proportion of heat, and fuel for transport, from renewables.
According to the latest available Government figures, the UK is only a third of the way towards its target for transport fuel, and just a fifth of the way towards its target for renewable heat. To make up for a shortfall in these other areas, the Government could increase the amount of clean electricity to hit the overall target, as the UK is already over half way towards generating 30% of its electricity from renewables - more than half of which is being provided by wind.
RenewableUK is also calling on the CCC Chairman Lord Deben to support the case for wind energy in the 2020s. In The Times interview, he stated: “It is likely that onshore wind will continue to play a part in our renewables after 2020, but it is not a decision we have to make now, and there are circumstances in which it might not. The public will decide what the balance is.”
The CCC’s 4th Carbon Budget, currently being considered by the Government, envisages 25 gigawatts of onshore wind by 2030, 12 gigawatts above what the Government says we should have installed by 2020. The CCC has also acknowledged that onshore wind is one of the cheapest technologies to achieve this.
RenewableUK’s Deputy Chief Executive Maf Smith said: "Onshore wind is the cheapest form of renewable power we have, so we’d expect the CCC to continue to champion it at every opportunity.
“Public support for onshore wind has reached a record high of 70% according to official Government figures, so the Committee on Climate Change will want to remain in step with the majority of the British public, who strongly suppo
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