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Really sorry to say this......but....here...here HMHG
It really is sad to see the demise of this once AIM darling. Actually brought a tear to my eye reflecting on this sorry demise of this shining light. Final embers now I’m afraid. RIP Bushveld
They have a conference call at 1pm ET (so 90 mins times), so I am guessing any time in the next 30 mins
What time are Largo releasing news of their impending doom ( haven't sold out, just joining in so I don't feel left out )
There are many deals today which can be viewed as a pair, I think they have put through a number of bed/isa deals.
You remind me of Marvin the Paranoid Android .... 'I am so depressed' ... or Fraser ... 'were all doomed'
Gobushy, I wish you well with your investment but fear the worst. Bushveld is currently losing money hand over fist and there is no sign of a recovery in the V market, quite the opposite in fact. Loans, sale of assets and lines of credit will only last so long then it's game over I'm afraid. This is a pure gamble on V prices and it's not looking good at the moment.
I will trade things as I see them in a chart rather than as I hope them to be. I made a lot of money at the outset that way and then I thought I could make more by being clever. Nope! Conclusion - follow the chart. This is game on again as a breach above 1.45. Wish I'd made these observations and respected them years ago.
Started buying my position all day today. Thank you so much sellers, you saved me thousands
Its clear a few flipped a while back (probably shxx themselves prior to lack of funding news and sold out) they are now posting negative shxx when they used to be uber postive. They are clearly out looking for low entry point. Too many not currently invested commenting on here and all other channels...
Last RNS.....14 March 2024 - Craig Coltman, CEO of Bushveld Minerals commented:
"The receipt of this cash enables the Company to reduce creditor balances whilst we continue to implement the necessary initiatives to improve operational performance at Vanchem and Vametco."
I've never been disingenuous, the outlook was good this time last year imo. The vanadium price was much higher than BMN's forecasted costs hence profit was expected, in H1 at least, and we were led to believe that the mining operation was in far better health than it was. In addition to downgrading guidance and finding out from Craig just how much work both Vanchem and Vametco needed, V sunk. And it hasn't recovered since. And then you have the poor market backdrop and the hardest of times for all cash strapped small caps.
The picture is very different to a year ago but I could be fairly accused of being naive for taking Fortune at his word.
I wonder if this has more to do with the expected terrible Largo results .... it is not as if anything else has changed
How the worm has turned Harchris, you're beginning to sound like me now!
And this time last year with such high US prices Fortune somehow failed to turn a profit in H1... Fixing the roof whilst the sun shines??? He went at it instead with a sledgehammer.
More pertinent question is whether we heading back to 2015 when V price was equivalent of $12.5 in China. I don't see the Chinese property market recovering for a decade. That's a lot of slack for VRFBs to take up - at the moment its 10% market share won't touch the sides.
Time for those 'synergistic' cost benefits from working with SPR to be realised then. Bottom of the V bear market, but commodities are starting to lift gradually, so we just need to weather the storm in lower prices until V prices make a V shaped recovery!
V price in the US has dropped 20% since September and 38% since Feb last year. Catastrophic.
That's v205, more relevant to bmn is European FeV which is roughly what it was in Oct/Nov - then ~$26.5/kgV, now ~$26/kgV. The US has certainly dropped in price since.
Seeing as US is 50% of bmn's sales the fall in that particular market will be hurting BMN.
As a matter of fact, things HAVE deteriorated since then. The European vanadium prace HAS tanked to $5.20/lb from $6.50/lb in mid Ocober and production HAS been impacted by lack of funds.
RIP Paul, a true Bushy Legend …..
It maybe time to sell out and at least recover some of the crumbs I have left
HarChris finally. 👍
14 March 2024 - Craig Coltman, CEO of Bushveld Minerals commented:
"The receipt of this cash enables the Company to reduce creditor balances whilst we continue to implement the necessary initiatives to improve operational performance at Vanchem and Vametco."
too many not currently invested commenting on here and all other channels...
Craig did discuss this very thing in December Cindercone. I'll paraphrase:
'So we've modelled our prices for 2024 on the midpoint from what we received in sales in October/November, a fairly conservative view, and even at that price we have noticeable ebitda at the production level of 4300-4500mtV. So as long as the numbers don't get significantly worse than that we'll have a positive outlook from an ebitda perspective and cash flow. It's not enough to fund the entire capital for next year but certainly enough to keep us well above water including all the payments to Orion in 2024 and 2025'
A lot has happened since though. Guidance has been pulled and it's reasonable to assume it's going to be reduced by at least a few hundred mtV. We're yet to receive funds from Acacia and there are at least some doubts over SPR as a credible financing partner. Also whilst European FeV prices are similar to what they were at that Oct/Nov midpoint the US price has fallen by at least 10%, possibly a bit more.
This is a terrible time for all vanadium producers and survival will be all any can hope for right now. Next is Largo reporting their Q4 financial results tomorrow evening - they've just sunk to eight year lows so the market obviously isn't expecting great news.
Dont worry. SPR will advance BMN the credit it needs, at least for another year, when it will assume the whole of Vanchem in exchange for the debt. Assuming they have the financial backing and credibility to offer the credit facility as promised.
Vametco on its own could survive nicely but profits very limited compared to the dreams of old. At least BMN now own 100% of it and have a mini grid after all this time and money.
Meanwhile, I'd wager Orion have started an orderly sale of its shares. Do you think the BEE consortium will continue to hold theirs?