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"I heard Takeda is looking to acquire Shire" I found this quote on another chat board, dated Feb 12th. Interesting!
I tend to agree but I am struggling to see how they can make a credible bid (based on what info is in the public domain around market cap sizes and relative debt levels) and I’m sure they won’t make one they can’t follow up on...all rather odd. The Shire SP has gone from c£30 to £38+ and back to c£35...all sums up the confusion/uncertainty. ATB, Scfc
Scfc, I suspect that you are right. If no real expectation of Takeda succeeding, there is no rush for others to join the fray. We kind of need Takeda to scrape together a bid that is just about credible to force the others to act.
W-i-m, I agree with your sentiment but I don't think it will happen like that. Once the Takeda bid fails (for whatever reason), the SP will fall sharply. So let's imagine they bid �38 (combo of cash & Japanese paper). If it falls over (eg not willing to take large slug of Paper), the SP will fall well below �38. I suspect that it would not even reach �38 in the first instance (due to lack of credibility) and would fall back 10-15% immediately. imho only. So back to �33 ish?
If tekeda makes an offer and no matter how ridiculous it may be (�38), it will be a price that a company is willing to pay for shire. This sets the fair vlaue which in proper market should hold even if the offer is rejected. point being even if the takeover does not happen, shire sp should in theory hold value of around the offer price and hopefully build on it. We have to ofc be mindful of the market being corrupt so price will be manipulated.
Perhaps I should have said that ANY takeover deal appears imminent. I’m not convinced that a full Takeda deal (which most seem to agree looks like a non-starter due to the companies relative sizes, debt laden balance sheets, their own statement on strict M&A criteria, etc) will bring out other bidders yet...had the Takeda deal been more likely then it may well have brought other bidders out but I’m not sure they will be rushing into anything if they, like most, think that Takeda deal won’t happen. Equally the market will be pricing on the likelihood of any deal, not just the Takeda one. Clearly we are all guessing, just my own view. Interesting times nevertheless. ATB, Scfc
Seems to be a lot of this going on recently Forms 8.3 and 8.5 are disclosure forms required by the Takeover Panel to clarify material interests in the share register of a UK-listed company that is in a bid situation. Any person or institution that has an interest of more than 1% of the share capital of a company in a bid situation (on both sides of the transaction) must disclose any dealings in those shares and their resultant position. Form 8.3 should be completed by the shareholder to clarify what they have bought or sold and the resultant size of their stake. Form 8.5, meanwhile, should be completed by any principal trader that has dealt in the shares. These disclosure forms are required as part of the Takeover Code which aims to ensure an orderly framework within which takeovers can be conducted fairly and appropriately.
I don't think anyone thinks that the Takeda deal will happen. Whether they will actually make an offer is the burning question. As long as the Takeda SP does not fall much more, I think they may make an offer around �38 (possibly towards �40). This will be rejected for many reasons (price, Paper etc) but hopefully will bring out the real suitors (ie Pfixer.Abbvie etc) who may be willing (and able) to pay a fuller price. I suspect that this fuller price will be no more that �45. I think anyone expecting �50+ is rather unrealistic, irrespective of where the SP has been at over the last couple of years.
The market doesn’t appear to believe the Takeda deal will happen... only time will tell. ATB, Scfc
Not looking so rosy this morning
�35.50 after conversion slightly down after trading on nasdaq today
As good guess as any https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/04/01/takedas-debts-raise-doubts-ability-finance-shire-bid/ At least confirms I wasn�t the only one disliking and mistrusting shp bod for the same reasons as �experts� did -do. Nevertheless, show must go on meaning rodeo
I agree was tipped this recently FoX
35Bn GBP May open around 3800p Tuesday
Shire is facing pressure from shareholders to find a deep-pocketed suitor as a Japanese rival weighs a potential �35bn bid for the vulnerable drug maker. Investors said the Shire board should seek alternative buyers after Takeda revealed last week it was considering an approach for the FTSE 100 rare disease specialist. One said the Tokyo-based raider was not a �credible buyer�.�We need to see more detail; so far we have not even had a clear bid,� said Marcus Morris-Eyton, European portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, a top 20 investor in Shire. He added that Shire was �significantly undervalued� by the market.
Book-Worm, yes 'Takeda was forced by the Takeover Panel to make an announcement following a spike in Shire�s shares on Tuesday' https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/shire-faces-calls-to-find-credible-saviour-from-possible-takeda-bid-89g8tmncz
Book-Worm, I disagree with on a number of points. Under the City Takeover Code, Shire had to issue a notification given that Takeda were forced to too. Therefore Shire had to confirm whether there had been a direct approach or not. All they did was confirm this. Takeda were forced to notify the City (probably before they wanted to) because of leaked rumours. I said yesterday that I bet Takeda will not end up buying it. But being a Japanese company I fully expect them to make an offer. Not to do so would be embarrassing under Japanese business culture so I think an offer will be made. But, because of their size, I suspect that the offer will be relatively low (eg around �40) and will include Paper. This offer is unlikely to be attractive to Shire not to its shareholders and I suspect it will be rejected. At this point Takeda might raise their offer or they may well walk. In this case the SP would fall but not to sub 30. In the meantime, I suspect that other suitors will come forward and may decide to counter offer to make a fresh offer further down the line. But now Shire is really in play, potential suitors will be on their toes. They may not have wanted to buy it just yet but equally they will not want a competitor to buy it on the cheap. Either way I do not agree with your conclusion that it will fall way below the level when Takeda announced. My personal view is that Takeda will bid but will ultimately fail (around �40). I think that Pfizer or Abbvie or a European giant will join the fray and will end up getting it for around �45. At this level (and with combo of cash and more acceptable Paper), the BoD cannot reject it.
Think it�s 30% of voting rights then they are required to make an offer.
I�m no expert but i think they have to own 1% of the shares before they can make an offer but maybe somebody else can confirm this?
Am I wrong or are the rns just disclosures meaning that all investment companies etc are required to let the market and Takeda know how many shares they have in shire?
How many shares have they already purchased must be close to 10% on recent RNS's?
Its working towards a green finish for the long weekend:-) thats a great sign! Good luck all
Looks as though Takeda have been secretly buying for a while now, let us hope it drives a rival out to make a rival offer?
Soon mate very soon :-))
Lets hope they borrow �55B then so i can get rid of these crap shares!