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You have no patience. The price is holding steady around the 45p with some fluctuations as that's where the market prices a first potential offer and yes POO has increased so the value of the stock without the take over is higher. Sit on your hands and wait for an official offer or just sit long term and see the value of Ophir come through. II's will be jostling for position some selling and some buying. Money moves from the impatient to the patient.
Just can’t see why these are down today. It’s just not possible. Stocks with no volume were up lol and this is in the process of a cash offer ??? Got a feeling Monday could see the door slammed shut and long term ophr will most certainly be much higher. Why the ffff drama n excitement and really ... st the end of it .... ffffffff all. Oh well it just wasn’t going to be. Ffff dreaming lol
I think it's almost a forgone conclusion that this will be taken over regardless of Metco, there are one or two big players that would be highly interested, and I agree with duster, this would have been easily this price without anh offer talk,
Well Inties have the castingvote here by the looks of it if Booth shows the door which I do not see as personally it's been on the cards office moving ECT.
Medco could go hostile and ii could still away it in theory but just cannot see it.
Ophir with poo back up would be around here anyway without the bid if you look at the chart in relation to poo.
The crazy thing is " this is nowhere near a realistic value without a offer in the balance,
Well said NewKOTB, better out than I could have done. I was just trying to indicate that they clearly own some shares, and ate potentially yet to declare. On the Morgan Stanley declaration it wasn't clear what their relationship to the deal was, but there must be something. Unfortunately I don't understand much about it, it's my first share subject to takeover discussions. In my excitement I just wanted to be involved!
Guess as an exempt principal trader connected with either/or/both Ophir / Medco which either is not a recognised intermediary or is a recognised intermediary but holds in a non-client serving capacity with an interest in the stock they still need to RNS.
So in effect, we have no idea up until I think the 15th Jan, close of business, to fully understand who owns what in terms of Ophir shares and that includes Medco themselves and any of their associated partners.
What we do know is that at least 50% is in the hands of Institution at this point in time.
I also expect some more, large holders to surface via RNS 8.3
Any idea what he is getting at mate?
duster ...
That comment was added by IAmNotAnAnalyst
Here's the RNS:
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=OPHR&ArticleCode=jakzzxvj&ArticleHeadline=Form_85_EPTRI__Replacement_of_Ophir
Newkotb
Sorry mate what you getting at with the Morg Stan stuff
senn
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
State Street Global 1.1%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.71%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.614%
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.07%
State Street Global 1.12246%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 1.482%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.09%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.49%
Barclays 1.30% (but short 1.32%)
Petrus Advisers 2.49%
+ Morgan Stanley declared some trades and CFDs as an intermediary (Does that mean they're working for Ophir?)
+ Investec declared some trades as they are joint brokers to Ophir.
more to come ...
yup - took another 10k @44.87
Well worth a punt
GLA
Topping up? Its dropping like a bomb, ridiculous
puts II's holding above 50%
Still an undervalued company even if Medco walk.
Do we know how many shares Medco hold?
I'm topping up before close
Should put some minds at rest, The Vanguard Group just increased their holding a little yesterday.
Artemis 1.84%
Standard Life 7.11%
Dimensional Fund 1.84%
State Street Global 1.1%
Norges Bank 2.37%
Legal & General 5.71%
Ruffer LLP 1.15%
River and Mercantile Asset 1.24%
Nomura International 2.614%
Prudential Plc / M&G 9.07%
State Street Global 1.12246%
Carlson Capital 2.525%
Schroders plc 1.482%
FMR LLC / FIL Ltd 7.09%
The Vanguard Group 2.95%
BlackRock 3.49%
Barclays 1.30% (but short 1.32%)
+ Morgan Stanley declared some trades and CFDs as an intermediary (Does that mean they're working for Ophir?)
+ Investec declared some trades as they are joint brokers to Ophir.
more to come ...
Could just be they have an 'idea' of what the offer is and want to load up at the lowest possible price .... hence price stagnation / manipulation. ajimo
Don't think we need to worry atm ... I hope.
gla
Spot*
Jftaylor. Spit on with your analysis mate. Exactly my thoughts. Markets steaming ..... 90% blue yet ophr are red.... markets know more than us investors. My optimism is starting to turn in to pessimism with an rns coming out that they have rejected the offer in which case dare I say ..... back to the 30s.
Fair enough. Makes very little sense however that this is down on a very bullish day for the market/oil stocks when it is in play. It should be strengthening the deal/share price really. Any kind of progress on Fortuna or Tanzania would see this re-rate so why sell now. Seems clear that the offer, if one materialises, will be sh*te hence share price dwindling. Entirely pointless selling down here at this price may as well just let it re rate as 28k bopd next year and with any luck oil price improving
Once again, numerous reversed deals from earlier in the week popping up, same yesterday.
This was a feature on and off during our continued decline, although they were very much, much larger trades.
IMO, this is market abuse, being allowed to use the system in this way stinks. See if a PI can easily reverse their trade !
Same MO same operator imo
JFT,
"Almost debt free 25k bopd producer valued at £300m.."
Looking at SQZ for example, they too are inline with our production and Mcap, so that tells me only one thing.
The market is now valuing us correctly in terms of our peers, so atm nothing has been added for a possible offer being made. I would be surprised should an offer not materialise that we would fallback to pre-announcement levels.
Good Morning,
I have had a brief look on the Internet reference our interest in this region.
I came across an article late Oct 18, stating that Shell were still committed to the project. Having been invested in
Namibia also Shell have taken stakes in these licences and the process takes time to conclude.
It’s not easy dealing with Africans as they like to alter terms and conditions on large companies. I can’t seem them
Controlling Shell though.
With all this in mind our stake there has to be worth something of significant value.
As a prudent investor, I can’t see the institutions letting us go for just book value as a oil producer.
I would not be surprised if we are a lot far North of 46p.
Just a few thoughts on a Friday,
Good luck to all holders.
So, using our Santos deal as a metric, we should achieve around 69p/s for our 70m P2 reserves alone.
As the Santos deal was only yesterday in terms of value attributable to OPHR, I see no reason why this should not be the minimum our board should look at in the first instance.
Remember, Santos wanted the cash to pay down their massive debt pile, so we should achieve significantly more than 69p imo, at 80p/s I think the II would vote for without a doubt.
We are not in a fire-sale scenario here, far from it.
gla
Almost debt free 25k bopd producer valued at £300m. That is not considering the huge assets (and a long list of them). Ophir need to change their name to Hurricane energy. A non producer valued at £1 billion! God knows why Ophir is so unloved, yes Fortuna was a non starter but the way the market pins the share price down here is insane
Thanks,
Many hands make light work ....
:-)