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Credit Suisse reports Takeda ceo saying: to be disciplined in shire m&a approach. Shire deal just one option being considered.
Back to normal now and the price has dropped
c1.6m traded to date. ATB, Scfc
Rumour or news...take your pick! ATB, Scfc
Something big is happening right now. The share price was rocketing upwards and reached �38 but suddenly everything has frozen and for the last 20 mins there has been nothing. Does anybody have any idea what is happening?
Just saying...... ;-)
It is now even harder to see how Takeda can move forward with a credible bid - the SP gap between the 2 is now over $8bn (in Shire’s favour) so quite how they could finance this is very difficult to see, irrespective of how low debt financing maybe in Japan. Any offer would need to offer a decent premium on current prices, one expects, so it looks less likely unless there is another bidder (no evidence to suggest this, of course). That said, the market will move as it sees things may play out so big falls or rises can happen very quickly, ATB, Scfc
I heard a rumour that there could be another suitor having a look. No evidence but hope it might be true. Alternatively, its more likely that Takeda will make a bid. Hence the rise again today. My �37.60 guess below is looking a bit undercooked now.
This is the announcement we need to hear.
my gues is Yes Takeda will make an offer of �45 and the split may not be as attractive as i would like but we may get 20:80. Offer will be rejected and we may then have other suitors coming to light.
Very good point.
Maybe takeda are only buying a portion of shire, after all it�s long been talked about that shire was going to be split into two. Just a thought
I reckon on on 30 cash 70 equity. Top price 43 pounds then they will be gazumped by a bigger shark who may offer about 48 pounds. Remember it�s just a guess.
People, 1) Based on everything we have read (or read into), will Takeda make a bid in the next 21 days? Yes or No? 2) If Yes, what is your price and how split between cash & equity? My go first. 1) on balance Yes but only just. Probably 60:40 but enough for me to say Yes. 2) I'm going for total bid price of �37.60 with 40% cash and 60% equity.
My mistake Redtom, I thought u were talking about shps debt cost. Anyhow, rodeo continues, indices down on trump tax, flight to defensives, pity cna is not registering that mood....
Scfc, Umm, yes, you may well be right. I hope not but that could be the reaction of a bid becoming more unlikely. I hope it is more a reaction to a previous over-reaction where no facts are actually known. Tom
I would see the rising SP of Takeda as the market thinking the deal may not now happen, just my view of course. If they did say “no bid is to be made” then I would expect the reverse to the relative SP reactions at about this time last week - so Shire SP would go down and Takeda back up. But of course none of us actually know as yet...ATB, Scfc
Nice to see the Takeda SP rise today. Slight over-reaction last week given the complete lack of detail. Takeda will need to raise funds via a combo of debt & equity so any rise in their SP is good news. But we will get a truer reflection of Takeda shareholders reaction once the terms are announced (if they make a bid).
notgreedy, Debt in Japan costs about 0.7%. In the west, it is more like 3%. Hence my comment but only relevant to Takeda, not Shire.
I wouldn't see this as a massive drawback, there are plenty of examples of a Sprat buying a Mackrel I have worked for 2 tech companies that this happened to albeit on a slightly smaller scale than SHP..
As I mentioned before, this mare is for riding only. helping hend wil come from all sorts of �friendly� and � knowledgable� experts opinions and roomers to be given us well after this latest event. I was happy to slice my long at �38.5 thinking jump was to big and to fast to be sustained taking a hedge shortly after. Agreed with whoever said that this situation will not flush out any new bidders or at least not till shp bod recommends bid to shareholders. Again likelihood of that is not massive but not to be excluded in a life of this mare. That said, IMO, sp should pass �38 again, possibly before summer. As to Japanese business culture, I can�t remember Japanese government that had not been implicated or found guilty of a corruption, cos Fuji , takada, Mitsubishi, Toyota..... you will find it that Japan is inhabited by humans therefore expect not massively different behaviour than anywhere else, money makes world go around, around.... Btw if debt is at � ridiculously low level� why is shp straggling to make envious profit, reduce debt much faster than currently, restore bods credibility.... My broker has long only on adr, still?
I actually hate these shares and i can�t wait to sell them so i just hope takeda put a bid in soon and end this shire nightmare! 😃
Yep. There has certainly been a big shift in relative SPs after the “announcement” for sure and the fact that Takeda itself had fallen by nearly 10% thereafter won’t have helped. I see it recovered slightly today so read into that what you like...all odd and I expect the market may tell us what will happen before any formal announcement either way. ATB, Scfc
Scfc, This is rather odd and I can't quite get my head around it. Takeda have obviously been looking at Shire for a couple of months. They publicly say they are last week. Surely they (and their many advisors) themselves (who know their finances and debt availability/pricing) must believe that a credible bid is possible? Otherwise they would not have got this far. I totally agree with you in that ,under Japanese culture, any bid would be a serious bid. Equally, under that type of culture, I don't think they would have said what they said without believing that are in a position to make a serious and credible bid. Markets obviously as confused as we are. But a bid of �38 would not be unreasonable given an SP of �30 pre-announcement. Whether the amount of debt taken on (but at ridiculously low rates) or the amount of Takeda Paper being offered is deemed credible, only the big boys can determine that. At the end of the day we are tiny pawns and it is the big shareholders who call the shots. Complete uncertainty at present but some clarity will appear over the next 22 days! Or even further confusion perhaps ;-)
Interesting but nevertheless in simple terms, a company with a current market cap of c$38bn trying to buy a company worth c$43bn (and with the target also believed by many, including its BOD, to be significantly undervalued at this level). Not hard to see why the maket is a tad sceptical. ATB, Scfc