"even if it ends up taking longer than many of us would like!" TIME is the one thing we do not have the luxury of. Being content to let Nicandros work at the snail's pace that he does is a sure fire way to have flat share price performance for a while, followed by a death spiral. The bulk of the cost (the penalty for working slowly) of the debt comes at the end (like it did last time in the 'restructuring'). Just my view, which is derived from understanding the accounts.
Thanks for the very very very very long reply (tbh I got bored half way through and glazed over a bit) but chuck, as far as I can see, you never said wether you were long or short or are you just flapping your gums ;)
A cpr means you can book value of assets to your balance sheets. More importantly institutions will. And invest on such a tasty net asset value. In fact it looks like they already have. http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=FRR.L institutional ownership up 28 million shares since sept. The debt is two years away and the gas IS ramping up now.
"Wouldn't it be more suitable for the both of you to post when news is released and try and warn people of the impending doom?" I am not a bear. I have tried to portray the FRR share price as a random variable, whose future direction is going to be VERY STRONGLY up or down (the leverage). I don't take credit for predicting the outcome of throwing a die, only for knowing what the probability is of a particular outcome. i know we are heading for bankruptcy (slowly) if Nicandros does not ramp up the gas sales quickly and get the COST OF THE DEBT down. I also know we are heading for 10p or 15p if we can get gas sales of 5 mmcfpd quickly and Varang to deliver a new revenue stream.
Delaying doing those things will lead to sideways movement for a bit and then a death spiral. Unlike other posters here I am not smart enough to read Mr Nicandros's motives but the outcome IS DEPENDENT ON MR NICANDROS AND WHAT HE CHOOSES TO DO NEXT. I note his bets are reasonably even at the moment (he has a foot in the equity camp and one in the debt camp). Nobody has explained to me the benefit of the CPR. I understand it could be proof that the losses in the accounts are outweighed by off-balance sheet value creation but as a novice oil and gas investor that is more difficult for me to understand. I am not A "C2 contingent resources in Georgia" salesman so that bit is hard for me to understand, although I see Mr Nicandros has no problem selling them for the price he has to via placings. I disagree I am a bear. I do not know which direction the share price will move.
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