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Apart from the fact I'm a Jonah why is this share 15% down after I bought in 3 weeks ago What's changed and is there an underlying reason?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-maersk-denmark-idUSKBN16E1QI this could be VERY positve for FAROE as the Dong assets we aquired rely on this infrastructure.
IMO anything under £1 for this will be a great investment in the long term (i.e. 18 months) this will become a T.O target as operators in the North Sea consolidate. Note the Delek shareholding - this would merge with Ithaca Energy's assets well IF they complete their take over. I know the average AIM investor hangs around circa a few weeks however for long termers this is a good entry point.. time as always will tell.
If the fall does not bode well how can it be a good entry point Speak with fork tongue?
The fall does not bode well. Any dip below £1 is a good entry for some IMO.
Should reach total depth this week - the drill time was expected to be around 55 days. Naturally these things are never an exact science however should positive news come I'd expect a nice tick up here on the back of it.
One of your shareholders posted on STELs bulletin board last night suggesting that the chances of a big SP rise are much higher in SOU or FPM than in STEL. I’m just curious to know, is that a view shared by all on this board? STEL is on the cusp of a huge deal that could transform its SP. Do you think there is also a chance of a huge multi bagger here?
Two large buys late yesterday worth over £2.6m ... someone taking a position. Drilling news could come at any time from Bone (formally Dazzler).
Concur with your forward thinking Vlad, although I would add a caveat. I have had a long term holding from 2008, which I have added to at appropriate times, and still have a substantial holding, which I have seen reach the dizzy heights of >200p twice and then falling back last year into the low50/high 40's. In this time I have seen the Market Capitalisation go from circa £70m to its now £375m along with a huge increase in the number of shares, (3x). The management are working long term to build a successful company, but it has never truly been reflected in the share price. Perhaps this time the company will accumulate value, which reflects in the share price rather than go for the next great deal at expense of shareholders
40,000 to 50,000 bpd in five years time against the backdrop if an oil price between $90 and $110 will based in Faroe's projected production costs will justify a share price more than 5 times higher than the current level. Some production is temporarily coming off line this year to allow improvement work. This may well be made up for later this year by further acquisitions. Going forward, production will increase steadily year on year on a relatively low risk basis. Compared to Ithaca there is not the imminent event catalyst that Ithaca has enjoyed over the past year, but then again this is a very different organisation, lower risk and better managed. Shorter term the share price for Faroe will be closely linked to the oil price, when oil breaks out above $60, probably by the Spring, Faroe will track upwards. A lot of Ithaca investors who are hanging on to see what happens with the Delek bid will in time transfer over to Faroe in my view. Faroe is a far more attractive proposition for longer term investors and funds due their dogged refusal to expose their balance sheet and the steady hand of their chief exec. Is the share price of Faroe likely to triple by the end of this year? Probably not, but we should see steady gains and I expect Faroe to multi-bag several times over during the next 5 years unless Delek step in before then. Vlad
Somekindofnut, your timing seems correct predicting news flow is never easy. Noticed a support vessel the Stril Mar was due to reach Scarabe08 our drilling rig this weekend - your guess would be as good as mine.
Toze, Bone drill estimated at about 55 days. 55 days is about 8 weeks. I calculate 8 weeks from 11th January is 8th March. That's a week on Wednesday. Somebody please correct me if I've calculated wrong. Obviously £1 is psychological support level. I blame the 99p bargain shops;). In fact check out fpm chart, £1 support been tested three times in last few months and held up fine. Any dip under a quid wont last imo then so downside limited while we wait.
OLI12, Thanks for your comment, I understand what you mean...... BONE: As far as I know, Bone is a high impact which commenced on the 11 January 2017, apparently this well will be genius if it comes in. BRASSE: FPM has also announced that a Brasse appraisal well is imminent. Drilling of the Brasse Exploration commenced in May 2016. Does anyone know of any timescales when we can expect news from Faroe ? Is this imminent ?
lack of news could cause this to drift down in the short term as we are seeing now. IF Bone turns out to be dry then this will fall back further. If you are investing for more than 6 months I can only see this going one way (barring the price of oil sinking). A dip below £1 would be annoying however it would represent a great chance to top up.
OLI12, What are your reasons to believe that FPM sp might dip below a £1 ?
I didn't know this until recently, but to increase competition, Delek have been told to sell their stake in Israels largest producing gas field before 2020 when their even bigger Leviathan field comes on stream. So Delek have a $4 billion dollar pay day coming. They may regret not bidding for Ithaca when it was 30p. If I was Delek Id borrow so I can buy assets asap, and not wait until they sell the Tamar field or complete the Ithaca sale.
Thanks for pointing that out - good interview covering a lot of topics. this is a great long term investment with the potential for significant upside. YES it might dip below a £1 in the short term however in 12-18 months with a rising oil price this will do well. A well managed company with good assets and cash. Still hoping the Bone news will be positive that said it would be a good time to jump in if it were a duster.
Vlad, great to see you posting again. What you say about the difference in relation between Delek and Faroe as compared to the much closer relationship between Delek and the Ithaca board is exactly what I've been thinking. I believe there is a very high probability that Delek will try to take Faroe over, once its completed with Ithaca. That would build a decent size company for Delek to float on the stockmarket in the autumn. I expect they'll make a pretty penny - and they will need at least one other company to try and disguise what a steal Ithaca was. Faroe I think is the favourite, but I can't rule out Serica (not invested there at the mo, but its on my watchlist). Regards.
Graham Stewart was interviewed on IC. Fascinating, Graham wastes no energy whatsoever on charm or spin, very much the quintessential image of the dour penny pinching Scotsman - I mean that in a complimentary sense, exactly the kind of person I want in charge of my largest holding. Graham was pressed on whether Delek would bid and whether Faroe would be allowed to sell relatively cheaply like Ithaca. He said he did not know whether Delek will bid, although he acknowledge they might. He stressed that the very best outcome for shareholders would be his priority and stressed that Delek obtained Faroe's shares on the market. What he is referencing here is the issuing of Ithaca shares to Delek prior to Ithaca's debt re-assessment, to get Ithaca through the debt re-assessment more comfortably by relaxing Ithaca's creditors due to the cash generated from the share issuing to Delek. Ithaca were more beholden to Delek subsequently than we thought. Between Delek and Faroe there is no such cosy insider arrangement, Faroe do not need Delek, Delek bought in because they see value as we do, if they want to buy is out it will require a considerable premium, that is what Graham Stewart has made clear. Vlad
Oil fell yesterday so most oil company share prices fell too. But API reported big inventory draw last night and oil rising again, so hopefully fpm should make some gains today. Really, we want EIA to confirm the inventory draw later today, but this could be start of opec cuts having an effect on the market.
Looking like it, the price is tanking. Fine, I have a big chunk of money nvested elsewhere, and I don't think Delek will move on Faroe until they've got Ithaca in the bag. So Faroe in play from around the start of May. If they dip below a quid I'll be piling in.
Should be due soon (ish) the Bone (dazzler) prospect is currently being drilled it's suppose to take around 55 days. Eni Norge is the operator. http://www.oedigital.com/component/k2/item/14228-eni-to-drill-barents-bone-bigorna-with-scarabeo-8 Drilling commenced in Jan as per the last RNS.
I'm thinking the same Urraca great potential here. No debt, its producing, drilling and has cash...a lot of cash. If Dekel offered £2 per share this would still be cheap all things considered. I will continue to buy at these levels and hold on for the action. Any weakness will be a chance to top up.
The Delek deal for Ithaca values Ithaca at $1.2bn (enterprize value including their large debt). So, a little more than twice our market cap. If Faroe can hit its aspiration of producing 40-50k boepd with five years, this makes the company a better long term prospect than Ithaca, which will have fairly steep field decline in Stella (although there is acquisition potential in the GSA). I have long though Ithaca and Faroe would fit well together. I think Delek think so too, and in my opinion I think there is an extremely high chance that they will take Faroe over, this year. Because we have cash and no debt, I don't think they'll be able to pull off the sort of low ball bid they managed with Ithaca. I have a fairly large stake here, and I'm going to keep building it.