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Thanks for posting that bloomberg article.
For me there is something new there, and this is it. Its clearly the way out of this impasse.
"Ankara wants to negotiate a settlement with Iraq before the pipeline is reopened and appears willing to forgo transit revenues until it does."
Nicely done
@TM,
as always from you, stimulating questions.
It's also not yet clear what proportion of the southwards-diverted crude will remain that way - i.e. will in future no longer be exported via the ITP; indeed, what proportion of that southwards-diverted crude was previously exported via the ITP.
Should the volumes available for export via ITP be greatly reduced (whether for SOMO- or for other technical reasons), it looks like Ceyhan volumes may take a big hit - and that would make the existing BOTAS Pipeline Tariff Rates very uninteresting for TR. Example: 200,000bod x $2/bll tariff is not an attractive business proposition - either Volume and/or Tariff has to increase substantially.
The expected PSC Contract Revisions will have major impact on the company bottom line - perhaps also on its willingness to undertake further field development?
You touch on the issue of certain crudes having differing values (SH vs ST for example) and the effect that "peeling off" these volumes might have.
Have you considered whether a completely new Heavy Sour Kurdish Grade might be on the cards...
There are no answers, only more questions.
Rudaw
Jan - March. “ 32.3 million barrels exported to international markets through the Iraq / Turkey pipeline. “
“The government received 2.7 billion and 22 million from local sales but only 946 million after paying financial entitlements of oil companies and debts”
Are they having a laugh at our expense? The situation is certainly as clear as mud.
The Market has the Pipeline opening priced in now !!
Payments are the only catalyst to get GKP moving now.
Let's hope gkp get at least one before they start up production again ?
What was Gkp spend per month before production stopped??
Itsa,
Is that 2023 or 2024?
Yep the share price showing the pipeline opening on the 18th July NOT !!!
Share acting more like the 18th August...
You missed the question mark off what was posted on ADVFN.
As in “ Production to restart 18th July?”
Since it somewhat changes the meaning, which I am sure was accidental, might be an idea to contact Admin and ask them to take the thread down :)
No RNS to support this yet though
So expect the the pipeline to open before or on the 18th July !!
No budget money unless 400kbopd is delivered.
Only question is how long will it take to get there again if ever with lack of investment in capex . I'm pretty sure the oil companies will only ramp up with a least 6 payments and receivables had been made.
Capex spend is not a priority for anyone at the moment so a catch 22 ...
Over to iraq and krg to start increased payments ASAP.
I'm not even expecting much of a rise when production starts as our bank account will get depleted at a an accelerate rate.
Hope I'm wrong though and good luck to all ???
The budget law will be implemented from 18th of this month
@DrawMediaNet
Jamal Kochar, a member of the Finance Committee of the Iraqi Parliament, said that the budget law will be implemented after July 18, and the Finance Committee will monitor the spending process.
From ADVFN
Are we any closer to any conclusion...
This is certainly a test of patience!
Quick poll will we this be a bad dream this time next month? And will we prosper and finally get those legs out...
Hxxps://www.rudaw.net/sorani/kurdistan/1307202320
Something has to be out by the weekend.
At steady state, when CRP is fully recovered, what dividends can we expect for the three cases 55K, 75K and 100K bopd?
Phat doesn't understand where the dividends were coming from...
Without getting drawn into details and taking an overview, we has recently seen the shorts on GKP closing, and much more positive words about re-establishing the crude exports from Turkey... Lets remember its they who shut the valves off, and they will be the ones to open them first.
The rest is smokescreen and mirrors, and is all about the money, dressed up in finger pointing and shoulder slipping of any blame....Even the earthquake disruption and inspection requirements fabrication excuses are beyond thin now.
Overall it is looking more positive and although very low the stock does seem to be accurately reflecting this with tentative rises.
Short term value does exist, when the pipeline is switched on and payments start coming through. After 3 months big money should return and share price be over 200p once again. I can imagine dividends to return at a slower pace as to keep more cash in reserves in case of future events like this.
All in all, 120p, is cheap and this company is pretty much valued at cash. 200p will be fair once pipeline is back on.
Yes Phat long term value exists but I wouldn’t place too much faith in dividends if the investment safety climate improves and GKP switch cash into increased capital spending. For instance they are sitting on massive reserves of the gas that Iraq desperately requires.
In that respect Iraq Oil Report 13 /7/23 Re. Deal to trade oil with Iran.
“the (Iraq) council of ministers also authorised the oil ministry to negotiate gas supplies from fields under the authority of the Kurdistan Regional Government ( KRG ) though there is no immediate supply available.”
Interesting but always ‘Jam Tomorrow’
P.S. have the shorts run for cover ?
IMO- anyone thinking long term, could pick shares up at these prices and once the pipeline and payments arrive, GKP will be flying, the dividend last year alone was 41%, that is huge. Obviously a lot has to happen but I believe that the pipeline opening is very close here, hoping that Turkey will open it as goodwill for Iraq then negotiations can take as long as they want.
Https://www.zawya.com/en/projects/construction/iraq-to-issue-tenders-for-road-link-with-turkey-b8omw2fl?amp=1
All positive, only a matter of days not weeks here for pipeline to be open. Erdogan wants his name in lights this situation makes him look bad IMO and he will get it sorted
The alleged visit of Ergdogan to Iraq on dd/mm/yy, still waiting for values for the three unknowns from Turkey.
Given the offset value of the award was $1.471 billion, what was the interest rate penalty for late payment and what is the current award with that included?
What % if any of the award was covered by an indemnity from the KRG? If non-zero what are the arrangements for paying it?
Given the announced shifting of large volumes of oil wrt destination refineries within Iraq, what volume is actually KRG oil that would have been exported down the pipeline, what volume from which fields and at what realised price?
Rudaw overnight.
So Baghdad is lying again...
It’s promising that the Turks and Iraqis are still talking. Personally I have no doubt that a resolution will be found we just need to be patient.
Hopefully a positive reaction from the market on Erdogan words. I very much doubt he was telling the truth but it shows even the Turks need the pipeline opening.
ATB and DYOR
https://shafaq.com/amp/en/Economy/Turkish-Delegation-to-Visit-Iraq-for-Talks-on-Resuming-Kurdistan-s-Oil-Export