Resource upgrade can be done without CPR. I was dissappointed not to see them in the annual report, where most expect company to issue latest reserve and resource estimate. Sh6 only account a small part of the disappointing CPR, the biggest boost is going to come from fracture porosity, which is artificially discounted and sourced from nowhere, according to what I read from NM research. I thought with more than a year of production and sh11? slant drill, the company should have more info and confidence about the fp, and hence resource upgrade. But till now there isn't much talk about the asset quality. Agree that 2c and 2p are the same as should be contingent on a signature approval, and highlighted so by the company presentation. But what gets the major excited is not just near term development plan, but prospect and complexity of a super giant field. Those in the data room may have access to these material, or may not. But the company has failed to ignite the excitement for the investment community or shareholders. There are signs of improvement with latest presentation, which clearly highlighted what's owed under cost recovery and easy 2c to 2p conversion. Yet there is still a lot remain unanswered wrt asset quality and fracture. Payment is crucial and while waiting, can't the company throw us some bone and apart from production, some prospect to asset quality?
There is no need for a new CPR. the CPR was just a legal requirement to get the main market listing....it gave us a baseline reserve figure.It is history now and way out of date......it was out of date the day it was released!!.....anyway reserves will grow from here with over a year of well data....and more drilling(probably not by us)........take over is coming........imo
CPRs are all about probability and proof, thus SH6 has to be sidetracked to really disprove the latest CPR. The reserves are based on commercial assumption as well, next phase FDP would move contingent to proven. For those in the data room, they have all the info they need to equate a real resource. I do agree with NM in that the contingent should be valued as proven in an asset sale as it's only contingent based on sign offs. For now it's all about payment and pipeline.
At $40.00 a barrel the Kingdom will still profit,the reserves they have will gather interests and the Russians,USA,ICG and Iran will scramble to pay their bills.At the next G20 summit they ought to be sitting at the head of the table.US fracking operations are closing down and the ripple effect is ugly.The ruple is worth poo.Iran is really hurting.Syria turned the tide last year;the tide has changed again.In Iraq(as well as Kurdistan)the prospect of 40.00 oil is a nightmare.Would the Saudis and Turkey take the opportunity to wipe out the already overextended Iranian military ? Stay tuned and do not for one second discount that thought. In the midst of all this is our investment.Even 50,00 barrels a day at todays price will not capitalize an expansion of wells,production facilities and pipeline.KRG needs MORE NOW.The OGL will get passed.The Major oil companies will bid.The reserves will be upgraded.The KRG WILL demand a fast transition. In spite of the untapped potential os SA,Behr Bahr and the entire Shaikan we will only get from $7-9 a share.Simon Murray who is more in touch with the worsening Middle East risk factor will move fast.We will all look back to when TK turned down more and curse him.We will probably look back on the deal Simon makes and be grateful.As the years go by we will know what could have been.In case you haven't noticed-their ain't anybody,Arab,Kurd,extremist,or "businessman" in the Muddled East you want anywhere near your money. All in my
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