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LtotheOG, why āexcept when the US launchā. Why are people āfrozenā to the time the US launch next, as if nothing is happening before that time? NOW they are several launches in Europe, in the Middle East and Latin America and the sales in U.K. and Belgium are going very well, capturing 20 PER CENT of these markets. James as these launches take place and the regulators approval is graven in SEVERAL countries, SHAREHOLDERS WILL BE NOTIFIED, ie a FLURRY of rnsSSSSS are to start anytime from now which will motor the sp non stop. The US launch will be the icing on the cake, simple as that. There will be also China and India too, for sex knows no politics, culture or borders lol. its not unusual for the market to misinterpret results and then wake up few days later. Plus over the last 3 years the AIM markets particularly the small cap companies have lost over 90% in value for those who complain about Fum sp has actually done pretty well in comparison. There will be IIs piling in soonish. So a lot of positives to motor the sp in the not too distant future. If youāre an investor then patience is the name of the game. If youāre a trader, thatās gambling and better go to a betting shop youāre in the wrong place here- gambling is always loss making anyway. Gambling principles donāt apply to investment, simple
Stifel continued
"Importantly, Futura is fully funded through to profitability, supported by UK and European revenues, with US royalty revenues expected in FY25.
"We note that profitability might come sooner than our current expectations if there is an earlier-than-anticipated US launch in FY24, triggering an estimated $5m launch milestone in the process."
Clinically proven, topical gel treatment for erectile dysfunction, Eroxon, offers a "significant and still underappreciated opportunity", said Stifel as it initiated coverage on the stock with a 'buy' rating.
As highlighted in today's results, Eroxon last year received marketing approval in the US, EU and UK and is in the early stages of the commercial launch in the UK and EU with its US launch on the horizon, under a partnership with Advil and Sensodyne maker Haleon.
The shares offer "a compelling investment opportunity" as the US launch approaches, said the brokerage, setting a 125p share price target.
The initiation note also highlighted the ED market is large at $3.5 billion annually and still growing, with Eroxon's key differentiating features versus current treatments being rapid onset of action, cleaner safety profile and unique off-the-shelf status.
Eroxon is a "true off-the-shelf product, available without prescription or consultation" and its drug free profile "means there are no restrictions on use or contraindications with other drugs, making it a treatment for nearly all ED sufferers", analysts said.
As a topical application with an onset of action under 10 minutes reduces side effects and increase spontaneity, "addressing two key limitations associated with current treatment options".
Future generated first revenue last year of Ā£3.1 million and Stifel forecasts this rising to Ā£9.2 million this year and Ā£15.8 million in 2025, when it forecasts a first pre-tax profit.
House broker Liberum's estimates are for Ā£10 million sales this year and Ā£18 million in 2025.
Stifel forecasts peak worldwide sales of $364 million for Eroxon in 2029, though a chunk of that will be absorbed by distributors and other middlemen.
The majority of expected sales are seen derived from the US market, around $223 million (Ā£176m) in that year, with Europe peaking at $117 million by 2028.
Hmmmm... I have never seen this at 70p. It has been 60p and the fact that it is now nearly half that is exactly why a takeover would be ideal. As you say, 2 post Fumhard... the S.P. "doesn't make sense".
As per the previous comment. I went to my local boots last week on Canvey Island in Essex. Small regional town. And again the pharmacist when asked told me the sell 3/4 a week and doing very well. So thatās good sign. Iām sitting tight with my shares. I think at some point soon this takes off. Any good news will shoot for stars. And I believe it will just happen without warning. Like it did last year when FDA approval happened. And the fact it was at 70p last year with no product and now at 36p. Doesnāt make sense
Well, inspired by another poster I popped into my local Boots this lunchtime (I live in a suburban town in the Home Counties) and asked for some Eroxon.
Then I said I didnāt actually want it, but could she tell me what sales are like?
She said they were VERY strong and the stocks had to be constantly replenished. That is one store, of course. Maybe itās not representative?
But if every poster on this board (who hasnāt done so already) did this over the next day or so, and reported back we might get some positivity on here!
If itās going gang busters here now, AND there are launches in at least 14 countries in the first half of this year, AND a US launch within twelve months at the latest, it doesnāt take a Warren Buffett to figure out that there is money to be made in this stock with a price at a low by historic standards.
Iām new here, so maybe I have a different view. To me, the past is the past, itās not relevant now. Only the future matters.
If this pulls back any further maybe us PIās should club together and takeover? Barder should be worried with a SP this low as they are vulnerable to a hostile takeover!
A buyout would have my vote. I have been in and out of FUM for over 10 years and never made any money. I got in again a few months before the U.S. approval convinced (as where many on here) that this would reach new highs but here we are not far off half what we were when we got that approval! I'm sure this will one day be huge but it always seems to be next week, next month, next year. Frustrating.
Really keen to hear some upbeat opinions of why the SP has pulled back again?
And what is going to stop it pulling back further (except the US launch date which could be 12 months away).
Thanks and GLA.
FUM Valued Ā£110m, they are expecting Ā£5mill when sales start in US, then potential Ā£45mill of sales milestones that they say are very easily achievable and how much are FUM royalties? A buyout seems inevitable! If Haleon bought them out they would save Ā£50mill and take full royalties? At an initial cost of Ā£300mill seems like a steal to me, and based on FUM staff levels could incorporate into current business and get shot of the dead wood guess who? Not needed!
A lot of these articles appear to be written by AI as little research done!
The Mail article seemed to have been working around the fall in the share price, thus giving (wrong) interpretations of the results. Fum never said there were difficulties around sales lol. The results were excellent: Ā£3m revenues, Ā£7.7m in the coffers, 20% market share in U.K. & Belgium, penetration in Latin America and the Middle East, even mentioning China. People were wrongly disappointed about the US expecting some announcement now, when itās been clear this had been further away. What people didnāt pay attention to was James saying applications with various regulations around the world have been made and awaiting approval announcements + the launches in the other 10 countries mainly European are being made as we speak and that SHAREHOLDERS WILL BE NOTIFIED ACCORDINGLY. In other words they will be a flurry of announced rnsSSSS before the U.S. launch. This and James saying heās been approached by IIs investors will keep the share price in an upward trajectory til the US launch. Do people really think the world biggest consumer healthcare Haleon is spending millions for the launch without having done due diligence?
Journalists are always looking for an explanation for sharp rises and falls in the share price.
So they frame a narrative on the presentation using words like āwarnedā and āuncertainty.ā
The reason the stock fell is simply explained; short term traders bought in before earnings in the hope of concrete news of the US launch, there wasnāt any so they sold. Simple as.
Nothing in the presentation suggested a need for warnings or uncertainty. They simply said, very plausibly, that Haleon asked them to keep the timing of the launch under wraps for market competition reasons. and that it was expected some time within the next 12 months. And that it is a complicated process, involving millions of dollars of marketing spend, so Haleon want to take the time to get it right.
The level of competence amongst financial journalism is pitiful, and this article exemplifies this.
Its!
Articles are two a penny.https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-were-not-concerned-064340814.html i haven't read the full mail article,but from the extract quoted,it's stance appears very much at odds withe the general interpretation of the results.
Market report in the Mail this morning puts a negative slant on the results .
"Consumer healthcare firm Futura Medical warned there was some uncertainty over its ability to generate revenue and the timing of key milestone payments.
Last year it made Ā£3.1million following the launch of a gel to treat erectile dysfunction. But it said it was difficult to predict future sales."
It fell 13.6 per cent, or 5.8p, to 37p.
Apologies if already posted. Stiefel with a 125p target
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045007/futura-medical-offers-significant-and-underappreciated-opportunity-says-stifel-1045007.html?rel=scroll
And nothing in the RNS about pain relief. Was anything mentioned in the presentation?
81, i think like me, hoping for sales figures like units sold broken down into countries would of been nice. Maybe a word about future releases or a plan ahead for the next year. We started off on x amount, ended on y amount doesnt really get them going does it.
Well itās a question of opportunity cost, I suppose. Until there is news of the US launch it looks like the stock will remain moribund, and there might be better uses for the capital, short term.
I agree, however, with those who say that there might not be much warning of the news when it comes, and that it will likely gap up on the morning of the announcement of the US launch.
So Iām in..
Barder states in presentation that they are not taking sales from products like viagra or Cialis, they are creating a new market with new customers. so if thatās the case why would these companies aggressively target Eroxon during launches to hamper sales?? They may have, when product was first released but based on this info would be a waste of money wouldnāt it? He just likes the words commercially sensitive, has to get those words in as many times as he can!š
Not sure what more the investors were expecting at this release of results, some magic words perhaps to send the SP to lunar sphere? I guess that is why Barder stared out of the window looking totally disinterested. Wonder what is was watching out there.
Launches are property of the distributors, who will have their own pre-launch news release and duty to their own share holders.
FUM revenue is predominately dependent upon royalty payments.
It has always been about the US launch, which could come at anytime from now to early 2025.
Unlike other AIM situations, where waiting for oil discovery results, gold mining strikes or partnership deals etc.. FUM has a working, proven product awaiting to hit the sales market. There is no ambiguity regarding it's credibility.
People who are anxious about the SP are the ones waiting to sell up on any decent SP rise others are in for the dividends.
bolo end of year report. wheres the units sold? wheres the blowing ones trumpet., jeeez that was some back of *** packet maths report. stupid. they have a killer market blowing product and...... smeg all?? dont get it, what arw futura doing? hand that product here, i'll get that sp up! damn it. joke, utter joke.
Worth noting parts of the summary of analyst coverage today, via Proactive Investors:
āFutura Medical PLC's clinically proven, topical gel treatment for erectile dysfunction, Eroxon, offers a "significant and still underappreciated opportunity", said Stifel as it initiated coverage on the stock with a 'buy' rating.
The shares offer "a compelling investment opportunity" as the US launch approaches, said the brokerage, setting a 125p share price target.
The initiation note also highlighted the ED market is large at $3.5 billion annually and still growing, with Eroxon's key differentiating features versus current treatments being rapid onset of action, cleaner safety profile and unique off-the-shelf status.
Future generated first revenue last year of Ā£3.1 million and Stifel forecasts this rising to Ā£9.2 million this year and Ā£15.8 million in 2025, when it forecasts a first pre-tax profit.
House broker Liberum's estimates are for Ā£10 million sales this year and Ā£18 million in 2025.
Stifel forecasts peak worldwide sales of $364 million for Eroxon in 2029, though a chunk of that will be absorbed by distributors and other middlemen.
The majority of expected sales are seen derived from the US market, around $223 million (Ā£176m) in that year, with Europe peaking at $117 million by 2028.
"Importantly, Futura is fully funded through to profitability, supported by UK and European revenues, with US royalty revenues expected in FY25.
"We note that profitability might come sooner than our current expectations if there is an earlier-than-anticipated US launch in FY24, triggering an estimated $5m launch milestone in the process."
Liberum noted that 2023 revenues had been pre-announced and that gross profit was in line with expectations and that the 57% gross margin "should be indicative of steady state margins.ā
News of Eroxonās launch in the US could arrive at any time, and Futuraās shares gap up very substantially. Those āinvestorsā waiting in the wings for ātablets of stoneā from Haleon / Futura can expect to find themselves chasing after a ship that has left port, and - like cruise ship passengers who have missed their ship - will have to rejoin elsewhere, at a much higher share price, reducing their possible return.
Investment is about prospecting through mountains of, often, useless information, recognising and joining the dots of the really key information. Itās a skill, and part of that skill is having patience. As well, part of that skill is recognising the limits of virtually any investor operating on the right side of the law to consistently successfully āmarket timeā buying and selling.
Todayās RNS was disappointing. The investor meet overwhelmingly so. But the FD did provide the clue to the exact moment when Futura will become profitable. Thatās worth staying invested for, I think.