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I sold some IDS (Royal mail) first thing and bought a few more here at 124.3 . If I had held my nerve 2 minutes longer it would have been better. I then sold most of the ones i bought at 126. 3 and bought back most of the IDS at 15p less to bring my average down a little.
The RNS today isn't a horror but the initial Spanking was. I think most of it was more or less known about regarding the "Softer" H1------------but as you know, the market likes to churn shares.
I take is as a positive that the figures for the year haven't changed------------but they still need to get the gold out and the costs down! The waste contract ending and the other solar should help a bit. The unsold gold should be getting sold at a higher price than it would have a month ago.
I suppose other that any unexpected news coming out, we will all just murmur about stuff until Q2 comes out.
I'd like to hear Dasut's views on this.
It's a good job I make my own jam because I'm still waiting for the Centamin jam
If gold holds around the price it is now and we get back up to 130 and hold there for a bit, I'd be quite happy in the short term-------until closer to the next update.
Thank you Tibbs, you are too kind. :)
As previously indicated, I suspect they robbed Peter here to pay Paul . - They had to meet minimum forecast for last year and borrowed from this Q's take to do so. - To be honest, had they not met minimums for last year, the SP would have taken a big hit at the time and followed well through into this year I feel. - So, in this regard, it was perhaps the right thing to do and something that any of us here would also have been tempted into doing. - One ray of hope for me: Horgan has gone out on a limb this time in that he is forecasting increased production from here on in. - He has not specifically loaded it all onto H2. - I see that as a positive going forward. - Now that is something from a cynical old sod like me.
The miss was mainly on earnings in Q1 that were around $23M or 1.7p a share. Allowing for the 104,000 it was probably 4,000-5,000 on what some may have expected. This would verify a 5p drop that we observed. The main issue is how long the low grade ore was being mined this month (feed grade at open pit needs to increase 0.21g/t which is a big ask. If the grade improvement happens in May then April production would be 33,000 ounces instead of 40,000 and they would lose 1/6th of the profit from current higher prices in gold. This later metric gives a pull back figure to say 123p. The other risk building up is that may not be able to hit the high end projections for the year being forecast.
Just as Rebess rightly suspected!
So a trouser down moderate spanking for us all again, but the good times might be coming sometime in the who knows when
The open pit has once again shown the mediocre grades are endemic and that the commercial viability of Sukari is very much reliant on the underground workings!
just as well the POG is where it is or the trouser down spanking would have been considerably harder!
Miss?... Could you explain what was the miss or the failure?.... It's not different than what the market expected... No surprise at all... Today's hit should be absorbed as we move towards the dividend
We will soon find out if the market likes or dislikes the lipstick applied to the piggy.
It shows the vulnerability of gold miners trying to keep up with gold. If the physical market can not take miners produced gold then the paper market has messed things up. All about taking physical delivery of what they produce.
Unfortunately it's always a blind gamble just before a scheduled RNS.
Although this time Horgan did temper expectations on the Q&A section of the webcast.
No surprise for me. I suspect ounces were borrowed to meet Q4 target and the same will happen again.
Didn’t expect that if honest
As expected, no surprises,
but still jam tomorrow.
If they do achieve full year guidance and gold price holds we should all be contracting type 2 diabetes from all the promised jam
I thought this might happen with everything leaning to Q4 again. The base line for Centamin is around 102p with this rally up from 93p. Everything above is dependent on the gold price holding and production levels returning. The AISC is still higher than expected. Centamin will take a hit this morning.
Its a shame that the 19,000 couldnt have been sold in Q1 but Q2 should be really good
Lets hope Pog goes back up a bit today to compensate it
Autonomy. Not great but entirely as expected and year is still spot on guidance. Expect a drop as Hoc etc on this albeit expected news and then a v quick recovery so great buying opportunity unless market has this news baked in as they should have. However like Tibbs don’t see the share price falling as suggested here yesterday back to £1 on the news though I think $2000 gold this year is just as likely as $3000 though I hope for the latter so Cey could be £1 later in the year though it could be £2 albeit less panglossian than Tibbs I think the former perhaps likelier but ever hopeful too
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CEY/q1-2024-report-yq4snqk6p99n1rt.html
Not very good at all
Major European stock indexes traded mixed in the premarket session on Thursday, following the release of March inflation data from the Eurozone where prices remained up 2.4%. Meanwhile, in the UK, prices rose by 3.2%. Investors are still digesting this information from the previous day.
At 8:00 am CET, the FTSE 100 rose 0.24% while the DAX lost 0.08% and the CAC 40 went down 0.06%. The Euro Stoxx 50 traded flat.
The euro gained by 0.07% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.06803. Meanwhile, the pound traded 0.13% higher against the US currency to go for $1.24701 simultaneously.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / AC
Gold currently $2377.88
“Separately we see the official sector, central banks in the emerging markets in particular, to buy a record amount of gold over the last several years, including over a thousand tons in 2024, which would be the third-highest since 1967,” he said. “We think this physical demand is structural, it is strong, it is driven by a host of factors, and financial demand for gold is only catching up to that.”
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-04-17/citis-most-bullish-forecast-has-become-likely-bank-now-sees-3000-gold-play
Fair comment Mr Bond!
Acohen196, As this is your first post on the LSE forum in it's entirety then possibly you didn't make any posts when holding this stock prior to selling or you have been studying the company on another forum.
With the POG at present levels and the likelihood of it rising towards $3000 this year then the results would have to be pretty dire for the share price to drop back to £1.00!
Likely wishful thinking on your part, or just mischief making then!
Alco perhaps you will share your trading stategy ,so we all benefit.
Thank you in anticipation of your anwer.
Made a nice profit and glad I sold. This will go down to a quid again after the news.
It is very much the same on the TSX
Hi Paul,
As Rebess highlighted at the time there was a reference by Martin Horgan to a possible "soft" first half weighted to H2, so possibly pre warning the market who may have priced some of the potential disappointment in, obviously we retail investors don't have any way of telling?
That said the company must have benefitted from the higher POG so that might compensate for some lower output ?
But that said you may recall that for a while so long back in the past now that Centamin was in the habit of under promising and the over delivering.
So let's hope that that old tactic has been brought back into use, that would be nice!
Otherwise depending on the severity of the bad news it may be a case of few hundred lines of "I promise to do better next time!" or if the results are really off the mark then be prepared for a trouser down bare ar(sed thrashing!
But afterwards if the POG stays strong hopefully the pain will soon fade away as the SP recovers!
Tibbs