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http://www.controlhidrocarburos.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2019/04/Prod-Mensual-Fiscalizada-26-ABRIL-2019.pdf
we have broke through the 4000 bopd though now.
sorry all
i typed 2019 and thought it was 2019 my mistake
That doc is from 2018...
looks like over 4800bopd going through the pipe line now take a look.
http://www.controlhidrocarburos.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/producci%C3%B3n-fiscalizada-petro/2018/ABRIL/PROD-DIARIA-FISCALIZADA-25-ABR-2018.pdf
LC - some of the other pipelines have multiples of 100K capacity.
the issue for AMER is the freaking permit to get going as an oil transport company.
how long does that take for a purportedly business friendly country?
Cyb- OBA capacity is about 60,000 bopd
Thanks so much, JP. The breakdown between the gross number to Amerisur and the net which it can actually sell for revenue is exactly what we need on each block.
And given the extent of tax attributable to non-deductible expenditure set out in this year's accounts (which isn't properly explained), then the hit to EPS is very significant indeed. Thus the PE of over 80. And cost of sales and admin expenses aren't broken out, so there's no transparency there to give the opportunity for proper analysis.
So where is NH's analysis and the investor relations (AS, NP) delivery on all of this? [Rhetorical question]
It's appropriate to ask some difficult questions at the AGM.
X factors; CPO5 23%, Plat not sure either 0 or 8%, they never say except a very old slide said 8% tax which could just have been the baseline tax.
All blocks pay baseline royalties 8% up to 5000bopd, then pro rata to 20% up to 125000bopd
Also a high oil price tax, very significant but details never disclosed.
CPO5 has a 2% royalty payable to previous owner.
When JW raves about CPO5 being “low cost production”, that’s absolutely correct compared to offshore. He omits to mention baseline royalty, X factor royalty, HOPT, 3rd party royalty and corporation tax.
Government royalties collected at wellhead and are a reduction in revenue in P&L.
HOPT & 3rd Party payable later, contained in Cost of Sales.
It's a shame we have to scrabble around like this to try to piece the story together.
Is the OBA capacity still 9,000 bopd? Will Shell Western take everything? Do they have a ceiling?
I am still at a loss on the CPO-5 and Plat X Factors.
Today's little classic discovery was a mix up in the 2017 Financials where Operational and Administrative Employees were shown the wrong way round. This was quietly corrected this year. I wonder how much other stuff in the accounts is wrong....
It feels a bit like Kit Williams' Masquerade at times!
As AMER conclude this period of workovers t’will indeed be interesting to see where the numbers settle - esp as throughput has a tendency to be below overall Plat production - still think the recent guidance of 3-4k pd is deliberately conservative and will certainly exclude the infill, which I’d expect to spud in the next couple of weeks.
I'd like to add my thanks to Roth1 for the find and HullFC4Ever for the translation of this informative article. Let's hope for more of the same.
Last night I came across a programme on BBC iPlayer 'Simon Reeve on Colombia'. Bearing in mind that it was filmed in 2016 and does not mention the oil industry specifically, it does add a bit more insight about the complexities of the task of working in Colombia, not least the nature of the terrain and the lack of infrastructure.
It also shows why the government needs the inward investment and oil revenue as it builds new schools, hospitals and community projects.
It also showed the government's fight against illegal gold mines and their pollution of rivers with mercury and other chemicals. This brought to mind that this could be a potential source of the pollution resulting in skin complaints by some of the indigenous population for which Amer is being blamed.
Thank you Cautionyourblast.
An interesting read for me, from a new voice, showing the commitment of the partnerships with OXY and the Government to improve oil exportation from Colombia.
The strategic value of the OBA for export is immensely valuable.
Very good work by others bringing a positivity back to the group.
Enjoy your individual weekends and we go again next week.
The ducks keep aligning and when our production figures are released showing further increases I sure the Sp will move north .
Baysil
And the wind it crys Mary.
Imaginary Jimi Hendrix View on Amer - DYOR Only a joke born of frustration -
Hey Baz, where you goin' with that proxy in your hand?
Hey Baz, I said are you goin' to the AGM with that paper in your palm?
Yeah, I'm goin down to vote OFF the Finance Director
You know I caught him 'doggin 'responsibility for another RNS
I'm goin' down to retire our Amer FD
You know I caught him duckin' 'responsibility with another Forecast
And that ain't too cool.
Uh, hey Baz, I heard you voted your FD down,
The Votes state - you disposed of part of the BOD now?
Hey Baz, I heard there’s an Amer post there for you now
Yes - I sacked him – and I laid him down into the AIM ground. Yeah!
Yes, I did, I voted to stop that OBA - messin around, Royalty barrels
Point 1 , Messin' 'the OBA all around town Yeah!. Not Drilling missed forecasts
Messin around town part 5
Hey Baz, where you gonna invest to now, where you gonna go?
I'm goin' way down south, way down south to Colombia way!
I'm goin' way down south, way down where I can be free!
(Ain't no FCA gonna find me)
Ain't no Minchkinko Holding - gonna put a rope around me!
You better believe it right now! I gotta go now!
Hey, Baz you better run on down! Better leave town. The LSE is on its way.
Yeah – POO & the SP its just + AIN’T Not Free for me , Yeah, - The shorters will have not me, ain’t no MM - Going to confine me, Good bye everybody.
One off post - must pay due respects, this is a sad week, sad loss, Dana did a great deal behind the limelight, no doubt, clever- hard worker, great personal engine, drive and built GTE to a great Co. I'm gutted - I think we have lost a major human asset with great insight - in country perspective. No doubt a void that needs to be filed quickly, as GC said ' A rare bird'. I'm off for three months - good luck all. Keep the faith. Respects to Dana's family- mega talented - guy and a true loss for Amer - but he did assist in moving us forward- there is NO DOUBT. In business - the collective pool of human talent - with creative purposeful management gets the long term results, greed wins in the short term. Amer needs to develop a culture of go forward for LT value - which will eventually feed back to the stakeholders, II's and PI's, the MM's has us valued about right, we are not there yet - as we are not in control of our output, income stream, profitability and divi dist'ns = Fecking Joke Really - Borrow $75m - get output sorted profits just like GTE Geopart - and get freed from THE OUTPUT PROVITY AND UNCERTAINTY TRAP - JOKE , our profit history last 3 years - its like paying off a Wonga loan, there;s always hidden costs. IMO I think NH is far too weak - bullied by in country management and needs to go - said this ages ago, people like TD for PMO lead the charge on finance, NH he's a gravy train jockey - What value does he add = bookkeeper FFS or Song ' Trailer for sale or rent' - GN I've seen Algae with more spine. FFS No leadership qualities or bullied, if bullied stand up FFS
This BOD bile impasse needs to move forward. Get Thanos in, with the infinity stones and kill off the dead meat. GLA = last post for ages. Too -ve - How can these guys Feck up a great company, its like Getting Ratner back in charge.
Back over 4K, let’s hope they (at least) hold.
Colonel Drake “Why the price i at 13.3p is a mystery”
Not Quite my dear colonel!
The price is languishing because the management are absolutely atrocious! No one can argue the assets are undervalued but holders have lost hope of achieving anything with this motley crew! Big sellers past week and they want out! Mystery solved ! You’re welcome ....
i hear it is a 100 well drill plan
Good news on the drilling front is that we're probably only a few months away from JW announcing drill plans for the following year.
Best guess has to be a 16+ well drill plan for 2020.
That should get the shareholders excited.
Or have you all heard that one before .......
Thanks for the translation, Hull: read by me (and many others, I'm sure) with interest.
I agree that there's lots to be positive about (despite needing Wardle's skills to be bolstered in the boardroom by a tough COO and the CFO needing to be changed).
A question for everyone: X Factors...
The year-end financials seem (conveniently) not to mention the X on CPO-5 and Plat (unless I've missed it). I seem to recall that it is quite high on CPO-5, effectively taking our 30% down to closer to net 20%. The article which Hull translated talks about 4,300bopd currently from the Putumayo (read Platanillo). So what is that net of X?
Do we need to amend our P&L expectations for 2019 due to large X factors on CPO-5 and Platanillo? Or am I chasing a red herring? Some clever clogs will know, I'm sure.
Agree with previous - but if success with the further step-out updip at Sol, which like Aguila appears to be much more conventional and defined closure (unlike Calao) then the brakes will be released and most likely they’ll go multi rig. But still a chance before as Indico is too big a structure to be an isolated-one-off.... which itself has much more to give in production and reserves. As we progress risk will be increasingly diluted and production will surge
@BumblingFool I don't think you are too far off but you have missed out the new drill at Platanillo.
Firstly, CP0-5 will shortly continue at Sol-1 with the company stating that they will return to Indico in the second half of the year.
The Indico drill rig tender stated 39 days for drilling and testing of Indico-1 and 43 days for completion. By my calculations Indico-1 was exactly 39 days. So I would trust that the stated timeline for Sol and Aguila stands true at 32 days to drill and test and 24 days to complete.
A spud by 1st May would have them finished at Sol-1 by late June and on to the next spud by circa late July. The indication is that this will be Indico-2. If it has the same drilling and testing timelines as Indico-1 then it will be reported by mid August. Even with completion time and rig set up etc, that still leaves plenty of time to then drill one of the 3 remaining drills of which my favourite would be the 2nd appraisal well, although things could change. That aside we are talking 3 completed wells on CP0-5 before year end with No.4 capable of being ready for early Q1 2020.
I agree on Put 8 likely moving into 2020 but it will be all about the approvals, which may come sooner. I note none of the recent capex announcements mention civils, although they were included in the earlier plans. There must be a need for this and that will take time to complete.
Put 9 and 12 is alla bout when those civils start because that will signal that the issues with the local population have a solution. These were due to commence in march but the latest line is Q2. We shall see.
Drilling aside and not in any way wishing to undermine its importance, at circa 6,500 bopd with up to 4 drills to add this year, there is significant enough movement in the production so justify much optimism even without hitting their 10 well plans.
Add in 3rd party oil and it gets even better although quantities, ramp up and tariffs levels will all play a part.
Still as i said the other day there is a good chance that 8-9,000 bopd can be hit later in the year and that is very healthy indeed and well worthy of a dividend or buyback starting in 2020, with POO doing so well.
Yes of course you are right. Sol next at current speed maybe 1 more afterSol
Agree with share buy back, if not that director buys would be welcomed at this level.
Pavo delayed based on Calao duster, next CPO5 drills all this year Sol, Aguila, Indico 2 &3.
Think one drill into Coendu (Put 9&12) and one drill into Platanillo so 6 drills in total.
Sol & Aguila are low resource probably higher risk than the other drills but important to establish LS3 model.