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My guess is that whether or not they invite other parties to pick up offer shares will depend on their pre-Christmas view of how long the exercise is likely to take. I doubt the BoD will want any more extra dilution than is necessary.
From being a company with slowly developing events I suspect the landscape will change on a day by day basis now. Soundings are probably being taken on whether offers are likely to come in quickly or slowly. As the asset sale will be price-affecting I would assume that an RNS stating that we have had a serious offer will be released within 48 hours. I'm guessing that offers would need to be in the ball park for this to happen; there wouldn't be a lot of point issuing news on the chancers.
DDD, indeed. MC has said that Hannam are conducting the sales process in two stages or "rounds", so I expect we will be notified via RNS at some point in Q1 2023 that round 1 of the process has concluded and round 2 has started. We may also be told that there were x number of participants in round 1, and possibly a minimum offer price (at a guess) to put a floor under the process.
Agreed DDD, that is the most likely explanation. Certainly the six potential buyers under NDA will want a site visit and obviously that number may be bigger now.
MC has spent an awful lot of time in Nic recently; more so than in the past. I ask myself why, if we are not gung ho for early production, would MC spend weeks in Nic if there are not people to see and deals to be done.
There is a risk that this could drag on for months into next year, but there is also the possibility that one of the parties who have had geologists on site in past months will come up with an offer.
It could go any way at the moment.
PS if you haven't guessed I am seriously deliberating whether to not only take my allocation which is small at just over 8,300 but also do I try and get more??
Thanks Squeaky, can anyone answer do we need £5M???
Isapension
The circular includes the following text in answer to your question:
If and to the extent that the Open Offer is not fully taken up by Qualifying Shareholders, the Company may place any Open Offer Shares that have not been subscribed for with non-Qualifying Shareholders or institutional investors at the Issue Price.
I guess I am also asking how much do we need to give us breathing space to get a deal done even if it drags on for 12 months (worst case although I would want to see offers early next year latest)
One contributor mentioned we only need £500k (and Jim is loaning £1m) so the extra fundraise is to give PI's the chance to invest at Jims price.
If this is the case and we don't get full subscription will they offer shares out to other parties??
Well its fair to say offers for the assets will be north of 15p a share so on that basis a good investment if you are new to Condor as you might well see a sizeable return within 2 months as offers should be a announced early in New Year as miners who have cash are not planning to sit around as they want to deploy the cash as quickly as possible and generate sizeable returns. There will be vultures but they will just be sitting on the sidelines. The chances of no offer is highly unlikely in the current climate of mining companies flush with cash looking for a home and Condor has a clean asset to be sold and its almost more attractive than an existing mine that would probably not meet the acquirers ambitions. La India can start up with 150k ounces off the bat if the acquirer wants to invest more and i suspect will do. The 80k starter plan is really just for Condor so go alone and personally i think that is still the right path to take as the short-term returns are very high given all capital is repaid in 12 months of production leaving a cash machine. Certainly twiddling thumbs will not create any value and in January or possibly earlier we should know if we have offers. The greatest damage will come from time elapsing and i certainly hope we are not twiddling thumbs in March next year as we will have weeds growing back and La India will go back to its pre-existing clearance.
That sounds reasonable squeaky, from a perspective where you trust the board to act in shareholders best interests (which I also share). I suppose to summarise the risks now:
1. Sale process drags on after 6 months and company needs to raise additional funds
2. No acceptable price for the asset is offered (for whatever reason, e.g asset is not valued by the market or a market event occurs causing potential buyers to withdraw interest, etc) and the sales process ends without a sale, leaving the company short of funds and with no clear path forward
3. Board is looking to screw the shareholders (i.e. a conspiracy) and will take the funds received via the open offer for themselves (somehow). Note that both the chairman and CEO are major shareholders as well as Nic officials connected to the Ortega government.
Personally I don't and never have had an impression that MC (or JM) was out to screw anyone, much easier ways to do that than busting a nut as a gold junior for 11 years over a gold bear market. I trust they will do their best to reach an acceptable sale but the main risk in my mind is market conditions. Hopefully they can remain stable over 3 to 6 months at least.
At this point squeaky, perhaps the vultures circling don't want to pay Jim's asking price, but when the value of Au is seen to be climbing to an appropriate level, then they might meet his price? My view is the value of gold will climb resulting in a sale around 60p.
I'm quite new to this game...
To me it feels like this should be the end game?
I took a position a few months ago, bought at all the wrong times, and now I'm nearly 50% down given today's SP. DOH!
I've sold my 1/6th post 05th December (so my holding is 5/6th of what it was a week ago).
My current thinking is to buy back the 1/6th and also try to obtain another 3/6 in the open offer as an excess application which I think (by my dodgy maths) would leave me undiluted if we end up with c240 million shares.
My reasoning for this is as follows:
1. My initial investment was made on the basis that there would be a sale and I could come out ahead.
2. The BoD (and Jim Mellon) have said "we recommend that current holders subscribe".
3. The BoD have said that they will return the proceeds of any sale to the shareholders (?)
4. Subscribing should help the company sell it's assets (and not be harmed by buyers delaying until we run out of money?)
5. Whilst my exposure will increase if I don't subscribe then I'm not supporting the sale process and thereby increasing the risk that my current losses become firm or get worse.
6. The main risk I see is no buyers come forward, this drags on another year, there is another raise or it goes private at this or a worse SP such that I feel as though I'm in "in for a penny in for a pound" territory.
Am I a complete idiot to think the above?
It feels as though the LTHs have been through this many times before so I appreciate your thoughts!
Hi sakura 7, thats a big holding. I guess it depends what your average is currentlyas to whether you will come out breaking even.
Re sng , I always consider someones contrary view, it is generally sensible as some here are now finding out. I had a little punt in and out but did bare your words in mind. Back in for a little punt now and down but will put them in the bottom drawer along with sar and a couple og goldies.
Good luck here
Btw, enjoyed japans football journey.
Documents by post? The telephone? Crikey. What is this, the 20th century?! Anyhoo, III was all done online, so might want to consider switching your broker at some point if the old-school approach doesn't appeal.
If anyone uses HSBC Invest Direct it is best to phone them to confirm if you wish to take up your entitlement and/or apply for excess shares.
They sent out documents last week by post but due to strikes many will not receive the instructions on time, the deadline appears to be 15th December.
I called them today as I had not received any letter or communication, the matter was dealt with quickly and efficiently, have applied for full entitlement and excess shares.
Does this now mean they are too busy at Limon to think about us?
https://www.nxtmine.com/precious-metals/tsx-cxb-calibre-mining-tsxcxb-reports-new-discovery-of-high-grade-gold-at-the-limon-mine-complex/
I reported this to MC and it is now available on the Condor website: https://www.condorgold.com/news-media/media-press/mines-money-interview-dec-22
I don't think they've put their money in the YouTube slot.
https://www.resource-capital.ch/en/search/?tx_kesearch_pi1%5Bsword%5D=childs
Oops.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yW83034oc7s&ab_channel=SwissResourceCapitalAG
'Video unavailable
This video is no longer available because the YouTube account associated with this video has been terminated.'
Now that should be good for a conspiracy theory.
It's OK now. All sorted!
Hi Folks! What is the best way to filter Slim shady? The constant and bitter merchant of Doom is dragging my ****!
I'm guessing there are a few knob heads as well.
Wow Sakura that’s an impressive holding! I hope that you, I and the other suffering members of the LTH’s club, at the very least get out of jail with our initial investment. I’m at the stage where that would feel like a win and anything else like icing on a cake. Good luck all.
I am guessing that there are a few slap heads commenting on this bb