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Why would you continue to hold then?
I kind of don't follow the points being made.
Of course if we sold it for 200m it'd make a difference.
Of course it'd make sense to sell in advance of a placing then buy back cheaper - hindsight is 20:20.
Just filing an observation. CNR is hopeless. JM's disinterested. Sanctions have struck. Mark 's over it. And so am I.
They have NOT performed for years, why would the sale be any different.
C gamer, 25 p is a solid return if you bought 15-17 p. Certainly hoping that we see over 30 p but as always nothing is guaranteed, plenty of more guaranteed returns to be had imv.
Still a lot of questions . If Mellon has a baseline figure but no offers match it , then what ? Shg had 3 offers and none suitable and they are producing soon 100 k oz with a m cap less than some think Cnr will receive. Sometimes simple common sense makes sense. Shg even with a healthy premium would not have seen £200 m how can Cnr with $105 m to spend be worth anywhere near that figure ??? And then we have to get the cash out of the tax dodging non doms . Not exactly guaranteed. Meanwhile most of the market and crypto is storming. I have some here at 17 p and May add a few more but don’t fancy being big time in here , too many variables.
Good luck
Ce gamer, well we weren’t all saying ££ a couple of years ago. Trouble is too many ask no questions and assume the best always, and closing down debate to the contrary, and still doing it????
Hope you Havnt got too high an average and manage to see Breakeven. The sensible thing here has always been to sell when a placing is a month or so away or bad news incoming then buy back later.
Good luck
I just got the HL messages showing me all the offer shares we have received. Increased our holding, and average reduced from just under 34p to just under 31p.
Like many hoping for a quick sale and out - at profit - let's see what happens. If I get my cash out quickly - think I know where it will go.
Since we are investers in the stock market, we must empirically believe that the market is not efficient. Therefore, there will be times when the market misprices a stock, sometimes to the upside and sometimes to the downside. Therein lies the opportunity.
cegamer are you suggesting that La India is worthless because "the market" doesn't price the value into our share price? I would suggest that if the BOD sells the asset for $100-$200m dollars and issues a special dividend as Mark has stated then that certainly would make a difference.
the market won't care about that in the slightest. Our sentiment is fumes at this point, and it seems there's not a decision that BOD can make that'll alleviate that.
I think we all just need to admit to ourselves - we're nothing but a bunch of hopeful bag holders. The second people find their exits - which as time goes on we're realising that those exits are MUCH lower than we ever anticipated - BB will get mighty quiet, and CNR will continue to be traded as some left field exploratory penny stock / loose change drawer for JM.
We were talking multiple £'s for SP 2 years ago, now we've got 25p for some people looking like a solid return. How incredibly painful that notion is...
I did play about with the per oz valuations. The good news is that these averages were based on a time where gold was lower. For once fate is playing into Condor’s hands in that it looks like $2000 may be on the cards this year which could push reserve/resource prices up. At the moment I would be more inclined to be more optimistic.
I’m going to take another look at last year”s balance sheet and take a stab at how any cash will end up in the holding company.
Xx, a doubling in sp on news is my hope then out . Good luck
Ddd,
Proven oz 600 k going to give $100 p oz $60 m
2.4 m - 600k 1.8 m Allowing $20m p oz $ 36m
Mill etc $6 m
Total $102m
Give a 20% leeway $ 122 m
I have deducted the proven that was converted from total , do you agree, also reduced $30-20 for ok and $160 to $100 for proven which I consider realistic in the circs. Then it is debatable what the new Jim hierarchy do with the proceeds?
Personally hope to be out before finding that one out.
One thing is for sure, there is absolutely no way Mellon has organised 2.5 options that will not be redeemable. The only question mark are some of the higher priced warrants. The company could roll on for years yet paying out wages, just needs cash in the bank. Perhaps an i of man registration in the future and total change of direction. May even become a blockchain investment vehicle lol .
lol wtf was that incoherent mess?!
what will they get for the mill ...by the time it gets bought and used it will be 5 years old be lucky to get a million back..la india has had a lot of problems maybe will get no reasonably offers metitza is a very valuable asset which should get quite a few offers...my guess metiza will be sold..and the money used to fetch people in to get a mine built at la india ...without metiza what will the company be worth????
Wow, in that case I'd hate to see you disappointed. You complain more than my wife does.
This isn’t so much a disappointment more of a dick Turpin at work
Slim I'm wondering if you b**** this much about the rest of your life's disappointments? Do you have a youtube channel where you whine non-stop about crypto? Back on to the ignore list you go.
I agree on the options. I doubt all will get exercised, either due to expiry, unwillingness or simply that the SP will not reach the strike level. I’m sitting around 60p for a valuation level but I doubt the SP will get beyond 40p due to the legacy unwillingness for the market to give full value and the likelihood of selling activity on the way up. Any options or warrants above this level would not get exercised.
From a timeline perspective I reckon they want a quick sale. With corporate taxes on the increase I suspect that a target sale would be by the end of March, although processes like this rarely go exactly to plan. If it doesn’t go by then I would imagine June or July would be more likely, the early exit heat being off.
I somewhat surprised at the number of investors walking past this given the early gains on offer. A fairly instant doubling in share price could be on offer on news, albeit a lot of volatility on the way up.
All done and dusted by June marks words not a ducking chance my words man got more story’s then Jackie Collins
All time high for pog
16yrs development
6.6mlion on a mill
O yer we are not miners
Story time with onion head
Could these options be a reason we are going for an assest sale rather than selling the company? I.e the get the money, keep a % to wait for the warrants to become available and then the warrant holder converting the warrant? Does Jim's new warrants at 15p have an exercise date like the others?
Oh, and they expire after 5 years as well.
A quick observation, which you may have taken account of, but I didn't see mentioned...
All options have some initial restrictions on when they can be exercised. None can be exercised until one year after the grant date, then only 50% can be exercised until the 2-year mark. 100% thereafter. So none of the 2022 options (granted 13/09/2022) are available and probably only 50% of the 2021 options will be available (granted 1/6/2021).
Open pit BFS only:
Indicated 827000 x 100 = $107,510,000 ($160 reduced to $130)
Inferred 69000 x 20 = $ 1,380,000 ($20 standard average)
Total 896000 $108,890,000
Convert @ 1.22 £89,254,098
Cash raised £16,744,748 (options\warrants if full dilution)
Land & SAG mill £10,000,000
Total £115 998 847
Full dilution 239,779,657
Per share value 48.4p
Upsides - add in some value for all the other gold resources:
Hi grade
Indicated 1088000 x 30 $32,640,000
Inferred 1190000 x 20 $23,800,000
U/G
Indicated 194000 x 30 $5,820,000
Inferred 898000 x 20 $17,960,000
Total $80,220,000
Convert @ 1.22 £65,754,098
per share value 27.4p
Total 75.8p, say 76p (ignore the 84p suggested earlier; I was using $160 top end vs. $130).
So, my range is 48p to 76p but I fully acknowledge that you can up the numbers give gold's bull run at the moment and that you can add in something for intangibles such as good relations with the locals and politicians and future potential. On a really optimistic scenario you could at a stretch make a case for 100p, albeit I reckon it's as unlikely as 40p at the other end.
My actual expectation is still sitting around 60p, although hopeful of a bit more.
Feel free to kick it around. The chances of me being bang on are remote. I just hope I'm in the right ball park.
Rest to follow. I caught a bloody key while writing.....
Updated for the results of the open offer. Expressed in a per share terms I reckon on somewhere between 48p and 84p, depending on what valuations you put on reserves\resources.
Looking at the dilution question first.
Options - officers
1,850,000 x 0.22 £407,000
3,375,000 x 0.42 £1,417,500
2,650,000 x 0.48 £1,272,000
3,900,000 x 0.285 £1,111,500
11,775,000 £4,208,000
Options - non - officers
4,284,000 0.42 £1,799,280 (guessed average as the strike prices unknown)
16,059,000 (options)
Warrants
8,194,125 x 0.4 £3,277,650
5,857,138 x 0.5 £2,928,569
5,803,570 x 0.35 £2,031,250
16,666,666 x 0.15 £2,500,000
36,521,499 £10,737,468
Total 52,580,499 raising £16,744,748 (depending on non-offer strike price assumption)
For full dilution add
In issue 180,532,491
Options 16,059,000
Warrants 36,521,499
Loan note conversion 6,666,667
Fully diluted 239,779,657
I doubt everything will get exercised so 240m is top end.
Open pit BFS only:
Indicated 827000 x 160 $132,320,000
Inferred 69000 x 20 $ 1,380,000
Total
Don’t like the chart on ATM plus the indicators are all showing divergence.
Might be wrong but not one for my Ghost Portfolio LOL