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" do you guys not think that based on the simple fundamental view that we are undervalued, are making a sh it tonne of money and the general sentiment regarding PGMs, defecits, lack of new resources and surging demand (for a variety of technologies) somewhat underpins a sustained movement to the upside with a few twists and turns? I do. "
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Morning Stoodio,
In the longer term definitely as all in all, yes I do - and the huge divergence fof the SP from THE major 200 trend line remains just a "concern " as these bullish divergences from the 200 can stay like that for a long, long, really long time.
I believe March to June may not offer the same size of SP increases as has been enjoyed in the historically big months of July/August and Jan/Feb - so for my own sake alone I'm hoping fate takes the somewhat milder route out of my own dilema. But that's all just my 'opinion only'/a concern - and definitely not a change to a bearish turn of mind.
Velo
The CEO said that,to paraphrase
"Be assured we will do our best to keep returning value"
Bland nothings perhaps but it felt like an acknowledgement that people want the SP up, but he could not be so blunt.
Overall it altered my perception to a more LTH attitude rather than an explosive double bagging mindset.
Cheers
Velo, fully appreciate your views as ever, likewise Nimrod. There's always a ying to the yang. If i've learnt anything overt the past 15 years of investing, it's that there's always always contrarian views that alter thinking and strategies of both private investors and institutions. Some honest, some not so.
So I would ask you both this. With this in mind, and particularly picking up on Velo's very interesting (and somewhat valid - mean reversion theory), do you guys not think that based on the simple fundamental view that we are undervalued, are making a sh it tonne of money and the general sentiment regarding PGMs, defecits, lack of new resources and surging demand (for a variety of technologies) somewhat underpins a sustained movement to the upside with a few twists and turns? I do.
The main difference is that JLP is in a period of rapid growth and brining on new revenue streams which accounts for its price action... which will continue ...with some retracing and pausing for breath as the holders shift around ...but SLP is not a growth stock operationally...and bringing on a new mine is hugely capital intensive, takes years and is high risk.
Timely points Nimrod, and also reminiscent of something I alluded to some months back that still concerns me (And also perhaps explains why you posted the other day of part-selling some SLP stock whilst the SP is riding high).
My concern that I posted of awhile back, was that whilst I'm on the lookout for desirable topping-up opportunities on substantial pull backs, I have been somewhat alarmed by the increasing divergence in the stellar performance of the 'runaway' SP from some notable long term bullish trends. Whenever such conditions arise It's always beneficial to keep in the back of one's mind that a reversion to the mean (but still remain bullish) often makes an occurance.
I had determined that a most likely period should that situation accrue, could be in the period from March to June this year. You can never know precisely when such an occurance will take place, just that it's more likely than not, but it's never a rush. The scenario you highlight sounds like that possible catalyst for just such an event.
From my personal POV, the painless way out of such an event is for the SP to become rangebound from March to June so that the longer term trends get a chance to play catch up.
The painful way is, as suggested in your post, that a retrace takes place in the SP and rectifies the situation by the SP retracing down to meet the more powerful, longer term trends and thus reintroduce balance into the universe, and subsequently, the bull trend can then re-continue with more decorum than previously.
The SP is still undervalued in PE terms compared to its industry average and so does offer some protection from the worst effects of your post and the scenario of a mean reversion, which I'm highlighting, too.
Unprepared, and it can be a false bear trap as one could miss out on a bonanza topping-up opportunity due to believing it to be a retrograde step in fortunes, unless forearmed beforehand.
TBTT and Gotreal
We will see who is (more) right. JLP's half year report is due at the end of March.
The performance of the shares since 1Jan is as follows:
SLP +28%, JLP +22%, THS +2.4%. The market has spoken.
As mentioned last night at 1902 hours: -
"I hope all the metals etc remain on the up for a while, though worry that the movers and shakers will give us a shakedown correction so as to catch out us smaller players"........Maybe its started as most miners were down today, and articles in todays FT are reflecting a possible change in sentiment.
Extract from todays FT...“While calls of a metals supercycle are growing louder, the evidence suggests we’re in the midst of a cyclical overshoot,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. There are similar comments in other financial papers today.
" the CEO's job desrciption is "
Tsk!
Well it would be if I could spell it correctly - description!
" they stressed they had shareholder value return high on their agenda, which I liked "
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Depends who said that.
Nerd's corner:
That is the primary function of all BOD's - to represent the welfare of the shareholders, primarily via their chosen spokesperson - the chairman.
The CEO, is not tasked with the welfare of shareholders as many investors mistakenly believe - the CEO's job desrciption is to carry out best practice for the welfare and good of - the company.
For anyone who's interested, JLP came right out of it's overbought condition tonight and lies just on the border. So their real pullback commences from tomorrow onwards. Could be a bit stingy, or if channelling SLP's usual behaviour before today - unnoticeable.
JLP dropped over 3% in one day today, but SLP dropped more with an unusual 5% one-day drop, compared to recent months.
Now that is unusual for SLP - for one day.
(Think that JLP poster has been posting on this forum without social distancing or wearing a mask - that's what caused today's pullback - for sure!!!)
SLP has parked up on a key, smaller trend line, and thus 110 held, as I suspected it would. Gave me a surprise with it throwing a wobbly like that just as I was typing on my phone and fighting auto correct.
Confirmed by rechecking back 6 months and it seems to be the case on each occasion, that the SP always pulls back to the same trend line (which is pleasingly always on the rise generally) on the short-term trends, AND no further, when nothing permanent is afoot.
The only time to be concerned is when the more longer-term, predominant, authoritative trends above it, turn bearish - and they are all bullish to a man.
So officially I am in the "temporary-pullback only" camp of today's SP performance.
- as I am on JLP's imminent pullback
- but don't think that lot will handle it well, I bet, judging by one or two posters over there today.
So parking up circa 110-ish area still fits as, 'not much ado', although after today the SP does carry a bearish label attached to it, as does JLP. So this recent posting of who's performed better recently, is now a moot point, as both have bearish labels around their neck this evening.
And I don't think THS will get off lightly this week either - doesn't it have an upcoming XD day sometime before this week is out?
- So it will take a hit too.
And it looks like getting drawn back into the 120's - the one thing I want to see THS leave for good - the 120's.
But THS's 120's are behaving like the leeches in the African Queen. They'll be all over THS maybe from tomorrow onwards.
So all 3 are taking hits this week, so what will the debate turn to then? - Who can take the hardest punch???
Don't know why we don't write to all 3 CEO's and ask them to slap their todgers on the table and get them measured and see who comes out the winner. That should stop the comparisons for good, eh?
Seemed ok to me, not the most dynamic pair of presenters.
But the profits speak for themselves.
The dependency on other people's chrome mining for feedstock struck me but that's not news to most. There's plenty of life in the dumps and mines. 20+ years it seemed to me.
They are obviously a cautious, well run company BUT they stressed they had shareholder value return high on their agenda, which I liked
Just a bit of help required. Have most of my exposure in shares, but swapped some shares for some geared exposure with IG. As they’re stopping it soon, does anyone know else that trades them? Appreciate any assistance.
"The Group also holds mining rights for PGM projects and a chrome prospect in the Northern Limb of the Bushveld Complex."
There is your potential growth.
Didn't come across as all that positive - lots of drag on profitability and reduced production. Entirely reliant on the basket which the major banks predict will fall in the next 3 years, What did anyone else think?
i'm assuming they are going to upload todays webinar to their website ?
Hi Gotreal!
No, it's you that hasn't got a clue. And you are deliberately misleading in your quotes as well - a $50m investment by Tharisa to produce several hundred thousand tons of chrome per year starting late this year is NOT a pilot plant.
But good luck with your investment in JLP. And do ignore the fact that Colin Bird and Leon Coetzer recently sold massive amounts of shares in their own company. And whatever you do, don't notice the irreconcilable differences between the operational results reported in their periodic RNSs and the hard audited figures in the annual accounts.
Today at 4pm - interesting to hear what they have to say.
TBTT.... JLP's Fine Chrome operation commissioned in 2018: https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/investors/rns/commissioning-of-fine-chrome-operation-commences/ then moved to Inyoni: https://www.miningmagazine.com/covid-19/news/1387316/jubilee-metals-to-relocate-fine-chrome-operation . Meanwhile Tharise is still working out how to make its fine Chrome operation work: https://www.tharisa.com/the-vulcan-plant.php ..." is being developed by Tharisa and a demonstration scale plant is being constructed. The feasibility study and process design will be undertaken in conjunction with the operation of the pilot plant." Feasibility study ..? Still don't know if it will work properly then... ;) As for Sylvania...? https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SLP/second-quarter-report-to-31-december-2020/14844899?lang=en "The Mooinooi chrome proprietary processing modifications and optimisation project to improve fines classification and fine chrome recovery efficiency, as announced earlier, is on track and is expected to be commissioned towards the end of Q3 FY2021" Maybe the end of Q3 2021.... Do a search on "fine chrome" ... Rearrange these words...arse talking out of you are ....
what time was that, just out of curiosity
Annnnd would you believe there's the half £milly buy order filled at £1.11....
:)
Indeed the dips are welcome opportunities ;)
Tiger, absolutely. And look at those buys coming in and orders lined up :)
£1.09? Yes please.
Hi Stoodio!
Rule 1 of SLP investing - always buy the dips.
It's always worked out nicely so far!
Bangrak I look at other indicators in conjunction with the RSI to get a fuller picture. Gotta go and see what's what, the world is front running ahead of my posts LOL!
Crikey! The delayed LSE forum SP was on 116 when I last looked before typing below (takes me ages on the phone (typos) but speedier on my desktop) But even looking at 113- I alter not a word of my post below unless the SP breaks through 110 area.
Must say I was as expecting this in March - not now.
And just noticed 110 as I post!!! Events are running ahead faster than I can bl@@dy type.
Need to get off here pronto and get to my live prices charts!