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Sorry this a better translation
energy
Navits with a profit of 49 million dollars; Production from Shenandoah is expected to begin in late 2024
The company updates that with the start of production from Shenandoah, the annual revenue volume is expected to jump to approximately $1.14 billion, assuming a price of approximately $78 per barrel of oil. Last year's revenue was 120 million dollars
Nathaniel Ariel 03/23/2023 18:07
Telegram
(2)
Subjects in the article Navits Shenandoah
Navits revenues Navits Peter Yash -0.41% in 2022 jumped by 39% to about 120 million dollars. The partnership records a net profit of approximately $49 million, compared to $3.9 million in 2021, mainly due to the increase in output in the reservoirs to 1.71 million barrels.
The partnership reports that the development of the flagship project in Nanoda is proceeding according to the planned budget and schedules, 43% of the development budget has actually been invested in it, and that the project is expected to begin production at the end of 2024, with the production of approximately 17 million barrels per year
In addition, Navits announces for the first time for the Sea Lion project a capitalization flow of about 1.9 billion dollars for the Navits part. Navits chairman Gideon Tadmor says about the results: "Navits concludes the year 2022 with excellent results and a significant increase in revenues and net profit. In parallel with the progress in the development of Shenandoah, we are working to promote the Sea Lion project, with the aim of reaching an investment decision in the project during the year 2024."
Navitas' EBITDA increased by 55% to approximately $76 million, compared to an EBITDA of approximately $49 million in 2021. The Bakskin project contributed approximately $54 million to EBITDA, compared to an EBITDA of approximately $36 million in 2021. The onshore assets contributed to EBITDA approximately $32 million, compared to EBITDA of approximately $24 million in 2021.
Progress in the development of the Shenandoah project: Navits updates that the works to develop the partnership's flagship reservoir, the Shenandoah project (388 million barrels), are progressing according to the budget and in accordance with the planned schedule, with production from the project expected to begin at the end of 2024. By the time of the report, approximately 43% had been invested From the budget of the development works in the project, in the financial scope of about 770 million dollars out of the total development budget in the scope of 1.8 billion dollars. With the start of production from Shenandoah, the annual revenue of Navits is expected to jump to about 1.14 billion dollars, assuming a price of about 78 dollars per barrel of oil.
As part of the development work in the reservoir, the advanced drilling vessel of the project, Transocean Deepwater Atlas, began the execution of the four development and production wells in the project, at a cost of appro
"Low volumes, the big holders will want warrants to expire worthless so that there is no further dilution. They will keep the prices low".
Not at all sure about this statement - there's a lot of misunderstanding and misinformation about companies raising cash and share dilution. Sometimes it's good news and sometimes it's not.
Companies issue new shares for many reasons, including:
- to raise cash to prevent insolvency;
- to acquire a business, as part of corporate expansion;
- to buy a new factory, site, building, as part of corporate expansion;
- to buy tools and equipment, for increased production and/or improved quality;
In most of the above cases, the market views the 'dilution' as a benefit and, for a well-managed company with a bright future, the share price will rise, as existing shareholders scramble to get as many new shares as possible.
Even the example to prevent insolvency could be viewed as a benefit, if the company is well-managed and, apart from running out of cash, everything else looks positive.
The one that shareholders hate is parting with even more money to keep what is probably a lost cause afloat - the classic 'throwing good money after bad', with shareholders unwilling to accept that this one's going to the wall, so cut your losses and spend that money on something better.
At the end of 2021, beginning 2022, that's how RKH was looking, with COP26 telling everyone that fossil fuels (especially coal) are finished. RKH had a pile of problems about to swallow what little cash was left (e.g. TDF decommissioning costs, Italy decommissioning costs, etc.). If that wasn't bad enough, Harbour/PMO walking away, no sign of that OM award, with most shareholders stating that an award of, say, £50M would be pretty good. To finish things off, SL licences were to expire soon and the RKH coffers more-or-less empty.
A year later and things couldn't look much more different. I really don't know what people were expecting from Navitas, but as they used to say: "What more do you want, jam on it?".
start at the end of 2024
The company updates that with the start of production from Shenandoah, the annual revenue volume is expected to jump to approximately $1.14 billion, assuming a price of approximately $78 per barrel of oil. Last year's revenue was 120 million dollars
Nathaniel Ariel 03/23/2023 18:07
Telegram
(2)
Subjects in the article Navits Shenandoah
Navits revenues Navits Petr Yash +3.78% in 2022 jumped by 39% to about 120 million dollars. The partnership records a net profit of approximately $49 million, compared to $3.9 million in 2021, mainly due to the increase in output in the reservoirs to 1.71 million barrels.
The partnership reports that the development of the flagship project in Nanoda is proceeding according to the planned budget and schedules, 43% of the development budget has actually been invested in it, and that the project is expected to begin production at the end of 2024, with the production of approximately 17 million barrels per year
In addition, Navits announces for the first time for the Sea Lion project a capitalization flow of about 1.9 billion dollars for the Navits part. Navits chairman Gideon Tadmor says about the results: "Navits concludes the year 2022 with excellent results and a significant increase in revenues and net profit. In parallel with the progress in the development of Shenandoah, we are working to promote the Sea Lion project, with the aim of reaching an investment decision in the project during the year
million dollars in 2021. The Bakskin project contributed to EBITDA approximately $54 million compared to EBITDA of approximately $36 million in 2021. The onshore assets contributed to EBITDA approximately $32 million compared to EBITDA of approximately $24 million in 2021 .
Progress in the development of the Shenandoah project: Navits updates that the works to develop the partnership's flagship reservoir, the Shenandoah project (388 million barrels), are progressing according to the budget and in accordance with the planned schedule, with production from the project expected to begin at the end of 2024. By the time of the report, approximately 43% had been invested From the budget of the development works in the project, in the financial scope of about 770 million dollars out of the total development budget in the scope of 1.8 billion dollars. With the start of production from Shenandoah, the annual revenue of Navits is expected to jump to about 1.14 billion dollars, assuming a price of about 78 dollars per barrel of oil.
As part of the development work in the reservoir, the advanced drilling vessel of the project, Transocean Deepwater Atlas, began the execution of the four development and production wells in the project, at a cost of approximately 320 million dollars. This activity is in full swing with the completion of drilling expected in the third quarter of 2023. With the completion of project development work at the end of 2024, Shenandoah's four wells are expected
Market seemed to like it. Navitas shares up 4.76%.
I got the words Sea Lion and Game Changer but that was about it. They certainly spoke about it a lot though.
There was presumebly also a question at the end about the poolotical risk as they spoke about the Uk, Falkland Islands and Argentina.
It was in Hebrew and as such I did not understand a word i'm afraid, but I can say that Sea lion was mentioned throughout the 40 mins presentation. I believe that it does play a significant role in their growth plan and therefore I believe they are very motivated to get this project done.
Navitas do seem to be a different league to PMO. I was pleased to see we have gone back to the original FEED of 80,000 barrels a day. Clearly they must have some idea about financing or why push it.
I also think it makes sense for the FI Government to push things. The world has changed. They cannot rely on a future Labour Government not selling them out like we did Hong Kong and Northern Ireland. Navitas are their best hope of remaing independent.
Interesting comments from Navitas on the use of a leased FPSO but what about the drilling first ?
and don't forget, the OM ICSID award almost certainly paid-out + accrued interest - any tax due on the lost profits component.
I also don't agree with the time-scale. Navitas are showing every sign of great urgency about this, which is more than just a bit of impatience.
Oscar. Some interesting points and possible.
However, on the plus side you miss out an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Could add interest to the Middle East and oil prices.
Interesting projections OIL
Back to £5 by 2030 Christ that was a long wait!
I’d like to see 50p by 2026 as first oil approaches. That will get me back above water for the first time in many years and I should still be alive then to enjoy that milestone!
Revised,
31 Dec 2023. 8p
2024. 12p
2025. 15p
2026. 25p
2027. 75p
2028. £1
2029. £2
2030. £5
2035. £25
2050. £50
1) Big oil trades well below fair value. RKH is not on the radar of any new institutional buyers. US elections in 2024.
2) Low volumes, the big holders will want warrants to expire worthless so that there is no further dilution. They will keep the prices low.
3) Stay on the OM award Enforcement would partially extend. Final decision on the annulment would be 30 months after, and not at the guidance 18-24 months from Q1 2024.
4) FID in 2025 and not in 2024 because of very weak global macro, financial contagion. Navitas will do it but they will struggle with the pricing for the capital raise in Tel Aviv.
5) First oil in 2027 not 2026, because of the delayed FID.
Alternatively, high oil prices and energy mania can also set in to prove all of the above wrong.
Agreed Kong.
What were people expecting? Gideon to stand up and say: "to save wasting time, this announcement is the FID. I've asked my dad and he's going to pay for everything. So now, I'm off to the pub - see you there and the drinks are one me"
Presumably SP will middle around now until Q1-24?
As material updates are aligning for then : Sealion / OM.
Thoughts?
Not nit picking but for the sake of accuracy the value of Sea Lion to rkh is more than their 35% proportion of the project npv10, so more than 1.5bln.
This is because rkh don't pay any interest on the 2/3rds of their capital cost that is funded by an interest free loan from Navitas. The details of a realistic calculation may not be for here, but you might say there's no "10" to the npv10 (that gives the 1.5bln figure) for oil revenues used to repay the navitas loan, at least for the period from the capex to loan repayment.
An interest free loan is obviously worth something; above prices it in.
After what seems a very good RNS, I’m very suprised to see that the share price is pretty static with small numbers of trades
Dem,
Thanks.
I've had a look at the PDF attached to that page. It details all 150 cases filed under the ECT. However, not all of these had arbitration under the ISCID rules.
There is no information regarding annulment and success rates though.
I shall await Leo's reply....
Mogger
Nick, Bluedefenders post got us there in the end I think. Here is a re-post:
"Out of 355 ICSID Awards up to 2021, 156 (44%) are/were subject to Annulment proceedings.
Of those 156 cases, 121 are completed and the remainder pending.
Of the 121 completed cases, 89 decisions were rendered by the ad hoc committee and 32 proceedings were discontinued (ie claimants on ‘fishing’ expeditions).
Of the 89 cases where a decision was rendered, ad hoc committees upheld the underlying award on 70 occasions. Nineteen awards were annulled in part or in full."
So really its 121 cases completed and there were 89 decisions made of which 19 were successful.
Which in my book makes us have a 74% chance of full success or 26% of full or part annuled.
Conclusion I drew from that video is that success of annulments is very low and that EU member state governments are obliged to apply to show “they have done all they can”.
I’m still confident
Dai
I just looked at the first sentence where the word NET to Navitas was used. It actually goes on to state Joint Venture NPV10 so then you are right: 1.5 Billion to RKH.
N
Sorry I think this is more recent than 2019
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi27rfhivf9AhUaQUEAHZyRAd4QtwJ6BAgJEAI&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DBybvHf5L2z4&usg=AOvVaw38bSjZ6wvX3XgEUmkjG7sf
This should link to a study on annulments held in 2019, since then there has only been one further annulment determined.
Someone smarter than me can chew over this?
TheNorseman,
How did you arrive at that? I get 35% to be 1,5 billion to rkh.
Can someone refresh my memory on the reserve estimate terminology… what does NPV10 represent- is that the higher or lower estimate? Cheers
From Malsy: “The NSAI Independent Report contains analysis of cash flows and NPV on the phase 1 and 2 development net to Navitas. Based on the NSAI Independent Report data, the joint venture NPV10 of the development of 269 MMbbls is US$4.3 billion on a post royalty and pre-tax basis, at US$77 Brent.”———For RKH that will be US$2.3billion!!!Plus phase 3 and Ombrina Mare potential award