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My buy this morning is showing as a sell?
We literally have around 5-10 tiny trades a day so good luck to anyone with insider information as it would stand out like a sore thumb. I suspect some update will be due next week so you more likely to take a view on how things are going. With gold rapidly climbing and momentum in mining sector looking very positive (calibre doubled shareprice recently from lows) MC should now be considering partnering and going towards production leaving us 50% equity or more and allow shareholders to reap longer term rewards. Just before we all expected financing we were 33p and now we are 50% down so one of the most specatacularly bad decisions at possibly the most crucial point in Condors 12 year existence. La India will be tumble weed before long and we will have a rusty mill in a shed somewhere. Condor needs to quickly rule in or out a asset sale asap or find the partner who has the balls to make this happen and ideally leave us some equity. Had we pulled finance in December we would have caught same wind as Calibre and possibly be towards 50p by now. I understand JM wanted to get his average down but he might be too short sighted to not see the bigger picture as 30% of a company worth £30m is hardly going to pay his electricity bill. He has backed Condor in worse times and at the trigger point where he could have made multiples on his investment he bottled it. Hoping for a positive outcome here but even if shareprice recovers to 30-40p on positive news it pails into the value of the company if we were heading towards production. Calibre are 10x more valuable than Condor and that is where we could be in 3 years.
Five o - I too have a low average and I do agree with you normally the city is a leaky ship. However condor has never been that leaky on the upside or down . If you look at the fundraise or the Jim mellon chairman news or the bfs there was little selling before the fundraise news but on the day of the rns it got smashed and then on the Jim mellon news or bfs there was not much buying before hand but both times the share price went up considerably on the day . I think if something gets signed like a preferred bidder or something then we could see it spike but we are only three weeks into the new year of full weeks . All my opinion
HFO, yeah it does seem a bit odd that we haven't seen evidence of a leek yet - apart from the massive one Onion Head has bought to roger us shareholders with. High time he provided us with an update. No doubt it will be 'no one wants to buy us so we are reverting to plan A (or is it Plan B or C? ) and will build the mine ourselves!
You’re one of the lucky/clever ones thankfully for you, I like many others here are stupidly/unfortunately not!
I have never ever known a process being conducted in the City that does not leak or entities being aware of how the process is going.
The complete lack of interest/volume in Condor stock, no large trades, nothing, suggests to me that the process is not going well, or if offers are being made they are at the very low end of the valuation spectrum, these would not suit Mellon & Co.
Surely if the advisors are being bombarded with meaningful offers this would have leaked, there would be buyers of Condor shares.
Before anyone suggests that insiders etc cannot trade or there are Chinese walls may I respectfully suggest they are not living in the real world. The process is approaching 2 months, the longer silence remains from the company the more likely the above scenario applies IMO.
I have a position here with a low average BTW.
Oh no. Not the fruit and veg again…..
Hopefully there will be an update at the end of this month about the bidding process, however with CNR there will probably be silence and an announcement in March that the company is going to start a banana plantation on the land, shortly afterwards MC will say he has bought a cherry picking machine that cannot be adapted to picking bananas.
Anyone know the process of news flow here. Its a first for me regarding the sale of assets..do we get a timeline of progression or are the company in a period of not being able to say anything?..Cheers
One of the reasons I think the per share value will be higher is because a part paper sale would facilitate a higher price. I know it will be optics vs. hard cash but I've seen it happen in other situations. The acquirer buys with its own paper which at the time is carry a good market price. It potentially makes a deal look better than it actually is.
I don't know what the intra - company debt will be yet so the £45m is a guess. One way or another it will need to be settled (Condor Gold paid off). I reckon the Nic companies will be sold rather than the individual assets within them. After all they will probably be carrying some (useful) cumulative losses for offset against profits (I don't know Nic's CT system but I assume there will be offset rules in place). Thus, if the companies are sold in their entirety I don't think Condor would would to be owed £45m ongoing. Debt settlement would probably be part of the exit deal.
I'm fully aware that I could be way out on this. I'm just thinking through some of the nuances of a possible deal and how the money might flow back to Condor. Also, don't be surprised if there is some sort of deal completion bonus issued to insiders who couldn't exercise options/warrants. I've seen that before as well.
Seingred the entire gold sector has been lifted by the rising gold price, Equinox has it's fair share of problems (not to mention $1600+/oz AISC due to rising inflation), they had a terrible year last year and some analysts are saying at current prices it's overbought. Could go higher based on sentiment and the desire to capture leveraged gains based on a rising gold price, but no guarantees. My point is even the great Equinox suffered as much as we did last year and is only now rising thanks to the gold price. This sector is fraught with risk, we should all remember that before leaping to insult the BOD here (not saying you did Seingred), but criticism is deserved and justified for sure.
I say the entire gold sector has been lifted by the rising gold price, but obv not Condor as we are currently stuck in this sale process with no idea how it will turn out. My only hope is that the rising gold price will increase the chances of a decent sale here and we can all get out and move on. A decent update soon would be most welcome.
As a side point, the asset sale of La India doesn't make much sense to me, as surely any acquirer would want the additional feeder pits for a scenario described in the 2021 PEA (150,000oz/year for 9 years) rather than the cut down FS scenario. And if they take the feeder pits they might as well take the rest for the exploration upside no (I doubt the remaining land package would add that much additional cost to the deal)?
Inflation is starting to hurt producers and really the gold price should be much higher. The 6 monthly gold price hit $1900 in 2020, adjusted for (official) inflation that would be $2130 today. Given everything happening in the world gold should be $2500+ but it seems the US still has it's thumb on the commodity scales, at least for now. But for how much longer, that is the real question...
Ddd, yes that’s a possible scenario . I don’t think it’s a given that a dividend paying company will grab the assets. More likely a mid tier expansion company like equinox calibre , arid etc imv.
Here’s an interesting interview with Ross Beaty chairman of equinox . From nearly a year ago but still interesting. He is still a holder in galantas. Paper in calibre or equinox works for me.
Personally would prefer clean full takeover, this asset sale idea is not very transparent , usually an asset sale would be in a continuing company with other assets.
Nero, ddd has explained his theory on the owed £45 m .
Ddd, will be interesting seeing the actual end result . Appreciate your methods using logic, still think you may be a bit o n the hopeful side re sp but time will tel.
Good luck
Thanks Simms.
If we have a £45m debt based on investment to date and we sell the asset for £45m all that happens is that we would pay no tax as the actual profit would be 0. if we sell for £100m and have accumulated debt of $45m our capital gain would be £55m and therefore we would pay capital gains on the profit less all other allowable expenses. i think the total costs to date are actually more so all the debt does is make sure we pay minimal tax. however i would still much rather as a PI see a takeover of the share price so we extract full value. T
DDD having not been through this process before I really don't know what to expect, so unfortunately not in a position to offer any experience-based insights. I guess if nothing else it will be a learning experience!
Your posts relating to intra-company debt are interesting, though have to admit also confusing! The £45m debt you mention, is this basically an accounting "trick" so that it won't actually affect shareholder value? For example, if the asset is sold for £145m , will the shareholders realise £145m in value or £100m?
I don't see a lot of point tub thumping about what might have been, or moaning about the SP. We are where we are. Condor has never received anywhere near its asset value so why should now be any different? While production still remains a (remote) possibility the more likely outcome is some sort of exit. That's what I'm interested in reading about, and what I think about.
Yes, I'm still in the 60 -65p, as expressed in SP terms, but I'm just as interested in how we exit as much as how much we exit for.
At the moment I'm thinking that the c.£45m intra - company debt will be settled in cash but that the rest of the consideration will end up being in the form of an equity swap with a current producer. Some of the £45m would be retained to administrate for a period (say £2 - £3m) with the rest being distributed via a special dividend. The residual value of Condor would then be roughly valued on the basis of its new investment in a producing miner, probably a dividend payer. The question then becomes one of what to do with it. I suspect a lockdown for a time; Condor perhaps being contracted not to sell for a time, and then maybe by tranches.
That's just one scenario. What about other posters throwing other ones on the table?
I tend to keep an eye on the USD, particularly the DXY.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
From around November 22nd it has slipped from around 112 to 101 as I type. meanwhile gold has risen. Expectations of a more 'dovish' FED on interest rates have encouraged USD decline at the same time as giving a lift to gold. Gold doesn't always move inverse to the USD but there are periods when it does. Technicians reckon the USD is oversold at the moment so a bounce up in the DXY might be on the cards; likewise a drop in gold. If it (USD) is bought I doubt it will last, especially while another debt ceiling pantomime is also on the cards. I'm also of the view that the whole world is not long off waking up to the fact that US debt is heading for $32 trillion and growing at a trillion a year. The US will never default but the value of its currency will have to drop.
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Timing wise gold at $1900 can't be bad given the negotiation situation.
I'm hoping we will see something next week. Agreed that enough time has passed for some sort of interim progress report, even if it's to say we are behind the original schedule; whatever that is.
As for the SP, I'm not expecting much movement until some sort of news is forthcoming. No news is often interpreted as bad news by the market and it's not as if the company is willing, or able, to talk to investors, prospective or otherwise. To be honest I was surprised at how forthcoming the last interview was. That $100 to $200m estimate did get my attention.
Punter I'm not arguing that MC has "done a great job", clearly whatever else he has failed to unlock market value for whatever reason (whether his competence, wider market sentiment, etc). What I'm arguing is constantly ****ging of the leadership whilst remaining invested has to be the dumbest thing I've ever seen. So to answer your question "Why would anyone sell now at near rock bottom?", well if you think the BOD are a bunch of crooks then what makes you think you'll ever see a penny more? Sell out whilst you can no?!
Punter out of interest, would you have been happy with 50% dilution to secure mine finance? Would you have accepted the construction risks and possibility of time and cost overruns? And at the end of it, what if the market STILL did not value the Condor appropriately - what if we were still sitting at 30p whilst in production given the amount of dilution required to secure funding?
Obviously I am disappointed with where we are, but I'm hoping that MC/JM had a good reason to believe they could sell the asset for $100-$200m dollars as MC stated. Not the ending I'd hoped for but it is what it is. I'd take that over watch more years pass by and seeing the (current) value of my investment here halved just to start construction.
Get it sold, issue a divi and let's all move on.
nero - are you serious? Why would anyone sell now at near rock bottom? Particularly as the company is up for sale and if by some miracle it is sold it should be for more than 18p. I take it you are owning the grim fact that the sp is 18p? I know that Onion has you in his pocket but how can anyone seriously think that he has done a good job? He has destroyed the value here over the last few years at a time when gold is over $1900! He is now selling off the company for peanuts instead of going into production. What has he done right/well in your view? He got a lucky break years ago when being handed a million oz for free from the old Soviet drilling data. Since then he has added a paltry 1.3 million oz in thirteen years. He has only just managed to do a BFS for just about the smallest mine/production schedule imaginable - this was supposed to be a BFS for 200k oz pa if you believed his waffle from years back. The guy deserves to be called out for his woeful performance, as reflected in an 18p share price.
Some folks are just not cut out for investing, or possibly, much else in life frankly. We all get a different hands of cards dealt to us, but a bad attitude is hard to overcome.
You're right of course EL, done. Apologies for giving these fools some undeserved attention.
But seriously, I'm flabbergasted that there are people here that are so angry MC (and JM) didn't make them rich that all they can do is spend their time insulting them on this board! And the best part is, they are still invested!! Surely if you felt that way about the management team you would sell your holding and never look back? Unbelievable.
Filter those with nothing to say IMO nero. No issues with differing opinions, but some are just all noise and no signal.
You talking to me? Never been to the Dorchester so do us all a favour and p1ss off hey?