George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
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d2b - they have not found the OWC. This is discussed in the CPR and is one of 3 primary uncertainties that this drill is trying to prove. The values used in the report for OWC are calculated
This one of the main differences between the Auditors resource calculations and i3e's - in the low case the Auditors have used 5130 ft whereas i3e have used 5270 ft in all cases.
Aimster - I would recommend you read the CPR for yourself - if you're like me, you will not understand the full report, but you should be able to understand big chunks of it and and have a good appreciation for what the issues are.
So to answer your question and in my opinion only - I don't think that they have to find any Oil in this drill to prove up a Commercial Field - they just need to prove that the OWC is somewhere between 5130 & 5270.
The main takeaway for me is that its not a certainty (IMO) and I think Simon Oddie is correct in saying that there is a better than 50% chance of success. He's gone and complicated things by saying that he " believes there is already a commercial development" which for me the two statements don't jive - after reading the CPR I tend to go with the 50/50. Hope this helps.
D2B …. Hopefully ‘Plug’ will not be mentioned in the results RNS. If a successful result we should see the word “Sidetrack”. Plug will be in a later RNS lol.
@Aimster, first 5 minutes or so all about Serenity
I believe they have already found the OWC, but dont fully understand drilling, so might be confused. first 2 minutes covers the water contact, a
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY2UtJr7jbM
From what I have watched reference a small development, if as believed Serenity is connected to Tain, the two discoveries have to be unitized.. And Tains development plan is in progress..
I also read Stas20 post balancing up the risk/reward, then for Core NAV, switched 2.5mmbls in place of Serenity..
Risk looks better that way
Tony … you have a lot more knowledge on this than me but what I’m trying to work out, what oil depth would warrant a standalone development for Serenity? Ie without having to drill more appraisal wells or to tie in to the Tain field.
Also a duster is not necessarily a bust, if they prove the oil water contact is below 5270 ft then they should have a pretty decent small development
@Tony, I think there is also a difference between i3e and the independents estimates which probably does'nt help..
But I think I have a dug up a Taxi Cab speculation, and a conspiracy worthy of AIM, both positive, but probably nothing
Aimster, I think I am starting to learn something, thats a concern of mine too, a bit like the plug..
Last year, Plug meant sell result, this year it means sell because others will sell...lol
They said 5ft Net produced something like 2500bopd during testing, Tain I think.. so 11ft will be lost more,
I'm not sure about that Aimster - 40ft is what SO says will prove up 197m STOIIP - so 40 ft is a home run.
The share price to me says that the market is a little nervous and they think a duster or poor result is a possibility.
@Stas20, Thats no difference from you using TA, patterns on past events to predict future trends on AIM stocks. lol
There is a saying 3rd time lucky, since I cant count 4, its odds on :)
D2B … I would be totally surprised if it was duster. My only concern would be the depth of the oil layer. The market is expecting 40ft and may see anything less as a negative when in reality anything over 11ft is a positive, demonstrating the reservoir increases in thickness due west.
Aimster, I have Sunday for TD, I will be nervous opening a RNS Monday as I will be thinking either be a duster or preliminary results.. End of the week I will be surprised too, if its any other than good news..
But really I have little experience
"Been waiting a long time for one on my watch to come in, so odds on one is due to come good.."
except probability doesn't work that way, I would say odds on, on the basis that serenity is already a discovery and that this well is an appraisal of that discovery. Add to this management caution (no desire for a liberator style step out again) and even if it is stepped to far, it can maybe be rectified by a permitted sidetrack, then I think it is these reasons that provide the odds on.
At the moment my full amount is still in, might sell 1/2, but have been saying that all week..
Been waiting a long time for one on my watch to come in, so odds on one is due to come good..
D2B … I think by my previous calculations, based on I3E SA-1 drill we should get an RNS on Monday 17 Oct., with a sharp rise in SP on the Thurs and Fri before (assuming good result).
dai2belts - are you one of the brave?
thanks Stas20.
I think looking at the previous drill speeds people are expecting results very soon, so de-risking for most is probably done..
For me 100% certain it is the flip of a coin ;)
Good luck to the brave, or knowing
Sorry I meant to write The good news is we are overSOLD
Macd (using standard 12 and 26 period and a 9 period signal line) is showing as oversold, still below the origin but turning up, a good sign.
I also use a long term trend indicator with a 1.5 point of deviation, which I prefer in AIM or small cap stocks that generally show greater volatility, in this respect the price is at just below the lower trend line on the longer term up trend, plotted from the low of December 21. If the longer term trend is to continue then we should see an uptick from here to initial mid point being 2.85p to then move to 3.46p. On balance volume has declined a bit (which is a shame) and we are held slightly under two resistances at the moment both being the 200 day exponential and simple moving averages.
The good news is we are overbought, however I am not really holding much play on technicals at the moment as all volatility is going to be news and fundamental for the short term, however the sell off from the point of spud has been dramatic and such a fast decline, and being at the bottom of this decline (with a hockey puck turn) may well indicate we have a bounce back scenario to come, however as is obvious, not helped by a persistent seller.
Stas20,
Not a lot of buying at the moment - what's your read on the technicals ?
Barnyards, FWIW I'm IN!
GLA
Can't you stop attacking other posters Tony, ffs.
Are you in EOG Barnyards ?
there's obviously a little bit of impatience for results - maybe you should share your little training video on this BB.