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There's a lot of excess entitlement rattling around to be hoovered up, so I'm now hopeful I might not get scaled back after all. Just checked the figures. The number of shares available in the open offer is 26,438,255. Shares in issue is 158,629,530. The first is exactly 1/6 of the second. So every shareholder is entitled to their 1/6 under the open offer. But we've been told Jim will not be taking any of his open offer shares - just the £1m from the (hopefully imminently converted CLNs). He has 29,694,226. So even if every other shareholder takes up their full 1/6, that leaves a spare 4,949,037 shares that people could ask for as excess. Normally with an open offer, excess only happens if some people don't take their full entitlement. That is the case here, but it's different in that we know Jim isn't taking his, so there's an extra 5m odd shares for those that want them.
There will be someone hoovering up the stock, maybe an MM filling an order from all those investors who have sold to take up the rights as price has anchored to 16p. It will be interesting to find out, if we are told, who might take up all the leftover stock. The only possible silver lining is that JM has now dropped his average a good amount so his price expectation might be at the lower end of $100m but still 4x todays share price. he should make ok money at that price. i do wonder that if price expectations are not achieved if the eventual buyer might not be JM himself. if you think about it he now has basically 29.9% and he has the money to build the mine and extract the billions. we have to assume the mill purchase was to build out the mine and since we did not sell the mill we must still have the plan B as build the mine ourselves.
I have taken up all my entitlements. I sold some shares this morning - was worthwhile to but back at 15p, 16.17 was sell price, and have funded 1 part of entitlement with £1.3K and requested a further £2.5K above entitlement into share account.
This probably means we will be trading below 15p next week.
Seingred - as you know I have always valued your opinion - you did well to sell in 30's - wish I'd done the same and I would have been entering again now - possibly.
The only reason I have faith is JM involvement - although he has the bonus of warrants. Hoping JM and MC do not let long term shareholders down.
Key line you need to read between lines is
“Any basic entitlements in the Open Offer not taken up by Qualifying Shareholders may be placed by the Company at its sole discretion“
So for me it was clear a 3rd party is likely to pounce as 15p is a bargain when we are worth £25m today. Its pretty clear offers will be more than this so stands to reason an investor would have a very good chance of multiplying their investment at these levels. Also whole process would not start unless we already had tentative enquiries. Certainly by Q1 its a yes or no and probably more like end of January.
Simms, I think its unlikely that if foreign holders arnt entitled to 1:6 that any unsold shares would be available to overseas. I imagine it probably is tied up with keeping costs down perhaps. Selling at 16 p to buy at 15 p plus costs? I sold most at 30 p and now thinking about buying back now. I can understand some not wanting to get deeper in. for many this is stick even more cash in to hopefully get somewhere near breakeven but with nothing guaranteed! This offer is not underwritten. They have added £800 k extra to the hoped for raise after original rns. This will not be concluded in a couple of months and it seems likely to me that there are still considerable costs. Raise must be hopefully to last 2023 out if needed.
Connect, I do feel for overextended peeps, I have tried for 5 years to make people aware of the pitfalls of over optimism, unfortunately it was met by a handful of very agressive cancellors, Open debate shouldnt be seen as threatening. Hope peeps get reasonable exit .
Its a good point about foreign holders so not sure extent of that. I assumed anyone who did not have cash would have sold 1/6th of their holding when rights was announced. Even yesterday you could sell at 16 and buy at 15 in open offer and i would suggest we need £2m+ for at least 6-9 months runway. I suggest we get full funding because it was an option in the open offer that MC had option to sell remainder. Therefore its odd to suggest this unless a 3rd party was not all arranged. I would have liked less dilution at this very low price buy when i read that it looked to me someone was waiting to buy the leftovers. Maybe FM or someone else but at 15p with possible 3-4x in 3 months it is very attractive to someone if we get asset sale, possibly even the eventual acquirer. Maybe im wrong but just feels some 3rd party was lined up.
Thanks Nero, it’s all of my own making at the end of the day, but a real kicker when you’ve invested over a decade and never sold any. Crazy as it sounds breakeven would feel like a victory, or like parole at the end of a long sentence when you weren’t even guilty in the first place, just extremely trusting and naive!
The latest video is on the front page of the company website. I have a maxed out ISA and have funded my share account with the required funds to take up my entitlement from the ISA. Halifax have agreed that the new shares will go into my normal share account, outside the ISA.
I cannot seem to find the recent Mines and Money interview by MC. If it has been taken down does anyone know the reason- was it something he shouldn’t have said or am I reading too much into it. With the current fund raising you would have thought it necessary for video commentary by the CEO to remain.
Sorry to hear that connect1, really hope we can all get out of this with out taking a loss at the very least!!
I’d love to be able to convince myself to average down ‘cegamer’, if it makes you feel better I bought all the way up to £2 and spent a lot to get my average down to the early £0.50’s. I’m currently as damn near it £100k down!!!!!!!!!!
I have taken up the offer in my wife's SIPP - added funds to do this.
I have re-read HL instruction a bit more. I can take up offer from ISA but using funds in my share account as long as I leave instruction to do this.
I have not decided yet whether to do this or whether to sell at 16 (have the £15 dealing charge) to buy at 15.
There is the option to sell a big chunk - and then apply for more than the allocation - but no guarantee - anyway for me it's sleep on it and decide in morning.
I do think full take up of the placing will be important to the market and for SP. Not sure it will be fully taken up though but hope I am wrong - hope it's very much oversubscribed. Last think we need is another placing after this.
We thought 30p was the floor several months ago.
I will say, my reasons for getting in on the open offer is solely to bring my average down. I'm down tens of thousands on Condor sadly, and it's majority of my portfolio.
Full disclosure - I'm sure it'll make some of you feel better - the additional shares will put my average to 39p.
I'm very bitter about my entry price - I bought at high 40s when we really started to see some momentum. The fundamentals, which I still believe, indicate(d) that we were sat on a company, that if taken to production would be worth hundreds of millions - a ten bagger for us LTHs.
I'm very bitter about the lack of transparency that MC and JM have presented to holders. WHY oh why we bought the mill continues to be a mystery to me. I can only assume the depleted coffers, and prolonged headache for Jim, has forced this decision. Probably a wise decision given our current sitrep.
I'm sweet on the fact there have been geologists on the ground very recently kicking tyres.
I'm sweet on Hannam - his reputation precedes him (I suggest you google him - the proclaimed King of Mining in the City), and the most recent deleted interview by MC indicates that, above all else, he and Jimbo REALLY DO WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY HERE - he's sharky, and likes to win.
Unfortunately, the asset's only as good as Jim and Hannam are able to present it. This is now less a holistic value proposition, but rather a gamble on Jim and what he's able to muster. If it sells for 150m, which is completely feasible, well - I'll see you at the bar.
If Jim folds, and leaves the table (this is chump change for him, don't forget), well then that bar will be more of the Weatherspoons variety.
GLA
There may well be an RNS announcing the results of the fund raise next week. Whether it moves the price will probably depend on what Mr Market as a whole thinks is a successful exercise.
I can't speak for Simms, but to your point 1 - considering this is written into the Ts & Cs of the offer itself, that will have been anticipated by the company when they were considering how large an offer they needed to make in the first place.
Point 2 is very valid, as is point 3, however these may be balanced out by some 'chancers' (in the nicest possible way! :-)) like Awax who would ideally like to trade their entire holding effectively for shares at 15p.
As to whether the funding will indeed be fully taken up (within the known limitations) I can't say, but I would think that again the company has structured things such that they are reasonably confident of getting enough into the bank account either way.
Hi Simms45
Just a noob question from me:
1. Why do you think we will get full funding?
I ask because:
1. Non-UK residents cannot participate, which might reduce the number of shareholders who can actually fund this?
2. A lot of shares might be held by PIs with no money down the back of the sofa (or no remaining ISA allowance)?
3. Based upon my (very limited) experience of these types of events a huge proportion of PIs appear to be asleep at the wheel and utterly oblivious to such events (shares in the bottom drawer) and hence won't participate.
Anyway I hope I'm wrong but welcome the thoughts of those with more experience of this type of thing.
Thanks
At the end of the day i am sure we will get full funding as plenty will have asked for a lot more than the basic element. The offers will be coming in but suspect they will provide more news in the New Year but i have to think this drive down was orchestrated to allow JM to get his average down. Nicararagua stocks like Calibre are almost back to pre Sleepy Joe remarks so its fair to say the market has ignored any future impact. Really its now for MC to drop the ball so hopefully he does not at this key point as if this was his 12 year plan i hope he had the exit and likely buyers firmly in his sights and its now his time to deliver. Personally some update prior to christmas would help.
15p should be the floor for this going forward, but unless news on the sales process is announced before xmas ( i highly doubt that) then we could see sub 15p in the quiet holiday trading - at that point I might be tempted to average down..
regards
T123
Maybe so with benefit of hindsight ‘cegamer’, however I’m in here for way more than I should have been, so I’ll personally pass regardless. Good luck to all that do participate and especially to the LTH club members!
Other option I have is to just buy on open market - could use trading account - and offset any CGT by selling something else I have in there at a loss and then buying back.
But in my previous post - I am wary about "throwing good money after bad". I agree with ISAPENSION - you never know with CNR
With HL I have until noon tomorrow to decide whether to take up offers.
I have not sold any funds in my ISA's and have no allowance left. So I have to sell CNR shares and still undecided.
I am going to decide tomorrow morning - was hoping to see a small increase in share price. Don't think that will come now.
Those saying sale will happen quickly - hope they are correct, as long as we are north of 50p. Think many long term holders will want resolution in some form - I'd have preferred to see mine going into production - but not going to happen. Hope most LTH can profit or at least break even. Many high's and lows. The last time it was at 62.5p I was very tempted to take profit and run - wish I had now.
Interestingly, think the trajectory of gold price and maybe other metals may start to go northwards - many of us have been waiting a long time for this - including JM.
Well let's hope so!
GLA
Decision made, opted in for 8332 exercisable shares and will take another 30k if available at 15p
Surely buying at 15p is a no brainer however you never know with CNR.
I've picked up another 35k shares here. MC and JM have absolutely done the right thing, and JM's got the tools for the job.
When a sale's announced, you'll be piffed at yourself for not filling your boots, because this will all happen over night.
GLA
I see there was another 350,000 from yesterday.