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I don't think it will be very easy to refill. The governments are flush with anti-O&G sentiment and they believe we won't need oil in a few years time. Why waste tax money to make oil companies rich, there will be a lot of resistance.
What the releases have done is reduce oil prices over the last year. The fact they are not higher is a reflection of the slowing global economy. If the economy does better in H2 than traders are predicting, we will have a bounce.
The market rules so we have to assume it's correct, we have a big slowdown coming (which seems priced into BP but not NVDA).
Of course US will fill the reserves at the right price. They are just in the process of lowering oil down to $65 so they can do a off market deal with India to supply Russian oil at $55 do you actually think they would pay $75??
Nightpusher
I don’t think in itself the strategic reserve has the same relevance as before,but as part of all the reserves,I think it still has a part to play.
The moment total world reserves get below a critical level ( whatever level that is), you just know some event will come along and cause a problem.
Too many countries are currently energy complacent even after the whole Russia Ukraine thing.
Sod’s Law says a problem always arrives at the worst possible time.
Brent 77.40$
Greetings Clued.No cut and paste but first para is copied virtually word for word to establish the start of SPR following Arab oil embargo after Arab/Israeli war of 73.
Second para is what I can dig off internet to establish if SPR has same significance now as 1975.I guess not but as USA imports and exports oil and certainly only produces around 12 million bpd of actual oil,you move into oil equivalent (gas and such like hydrocarbons) which takes it up around 20 million bpd.
Happy to be corrected if my research has errors from internet which is quite possible but all in all I dont think SPR is as important as in previous years.
“If GDP growth does decline, we could see a further slowdown in U.S. diesel consumption,” the EIA noted.
Despite the Saudi attempts to further tighten the oil market and push prices higher, macroeconomic concerns about the U.S. and European economies and a possible slower-than-expected Chinese recovery continue to weigh on oil prices.
L prices will not average more than $80 per barrel in the second half of this year, despite the most recent production cut announced by Saudi Arabia, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released this week.
At Sunday’s meeting, OPEC+ producers decided to extend their crude oil production cuts through 2024, while Saudi Arabia said it would voluntarily reduce its production by 1 million bpd in July to around 9 million bpd. The Saudi cut could be extended beyond July, Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said.
Despite the Saudi cut and the extension of the current OPEC+ cuts through 2024, the EIA expects non-OPEC producers to drive global liquids production to growth of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and 1.3 million bpd in 2024, limiting the upside for oil prices. Production growth in the United States, Norway, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana will be the primary drivers of the increase in global liquids output.
The cuts, however, will result in draws in global oil inventories in each quarter between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024, the EIA reckons.
Oil inventories will drop slightly next year, compared to last month’s STEO that forecast inventory growth of 300,000 bpd for 2024.
This, the U.S. administration says, will put gradual pressure on oil prices.
But oil is not expected to rally, and Brent Crude prices will average $79 per barrel in the second half of 2023, which is $1 a barrel higher than in May’s STEO estimate. The 2024 oil price forecast was raised to an average of $84 per barrel, up by $9 per barrel compared to last month’s assessment.
Related: Oil Moves Up Despite Rising Product Inventories
Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude prices traded just below $76 per barrel as the Saudi cut failed to lift prices with the market focused more on the economic slowdown instead of expectations of a tighter market further out this year.
Oil consumption will rise by 1.6 million bpd this year, and by another 1.7 million bpd next year, the EIA said, but noted that “Significant uncertainty remains around global economic growth and the potential impact on oil demand over the forecast period.”
The EIA also revised down its estimates for the U.S. economy and diesel consumption for this year and next.
The latest forecasts assume U.S. GDP growth of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024, which is down from last month’s forecast of 1.6% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024, based on the S&P Global macroeconomic model for the U.S. economy and EIA’s energy price forecasts.
The reduction in forecast GDP growth has led to lowered estimates for distillate fuel – mostly diesel – consumption. The EIA now expects U.S. distillate consumption to fall in 2024, which is a change from last month’s forecast that had expected distillate consumption to grow next year.
Recently, service sector production has been the primary
Nightpusher, did you write this yourself or is it an extract from somewhere in 1975 as it is way out of date therefore ?
That's a big drop in buybacks from 9.3m shares daily
BP p.l.c. (the "Company") announces that on 7 June 2023 it has purchased, in accordance with the authority granted by shareholders at the 2023 Annual General Meeting of the Company, a total of 3,841,565 of its ordinary shares of $0.25 each ("Shares") on the London Stock Exchange and Cboe (UK) as part of the buyback programme announced on 2 May 2023 (the "Programme") and as detailed below:
Highest price paid per Share (pence): 475.50
Lowest price paid per Share (pence): 467.15
Volume weighted average price paid per Share (pence): 471.611
December 22, 1975
In the aftermath of the oil crises, the United States established the SPR. President Ford set the SPR into motion when he signed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) on December 22, 1975. The legislation declared it to be U.S. policy to establish a reserve of up to one billion barrels of petroleum.
As the USA would seem to be just about self sufficient in oil or oil equivalent at around 21million bpd,it still imports but also exports as well,it would seem that the reserve no longer has the strategic importance that it once had and now seems to be more of a tool to interfere in keeping oil prices down at selected times.I am aware that Congress ordered the last sale of 26million barrels.I dont think (not sure)the president required congressional permission to sell off the vast amount that hit the market last year before the midterms so I am not sure that refilling it back to its original capacity will ever happen again unless oil drops at a spectacular rate and then its really just good business practice,something politicians are not normally good at.Time will tell of course.
Oil prices rose early on Wednesday as Chinese data showed crude imports into the world’s top oil importer jumped in May, recovering from a weak April.
As of 8:13 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, ahead of the EIA weekly inventory report, WTI Crude prices were up by 0.99% at $72.45. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded at $76.98, up by 0.94% on the day.
Following a slump on Tuesday, oil prices recovered some of the losses early on Wednesday, as China’s data showed crude oil imports jumped in May by 12.2% year-on-year and by 17.4% compared to April. China imported a total of 12.11 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in May, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, as refiners returned from maintenance and moved to stockpile crude.
The building of crude inventories has supported crude oil imports and demand despite the mixed macroeconomic data coming out of China in recent weeks.
“Demand slowdown from China has been a major concern for the crude oil market recently, and a recovery in oil imports is likely to provide some comfort to the oil market,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Wednesday.
“Higher refinery utilisation has also increased refined product supplies in the Chinese market, with China reverting to being a net exporter of refined products last month.”
Oil prices recovered early on Wednesday, helped by the higher Chinese crude imports and the market shifting focus from macroeconomic concerns to a looming supply deficit in the second half of the year.
On Tuesday, concerns about the economy erased all the Saudi cut-induced gains from Monday. The 1 million bpd Saudi cut has failed to move oil prices in any meaningful way so far. In addition, a bearish industry report on inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API) also weighed on prices on Tuesday. Although the API reported a crude inventory draw, it also found that gasoline and distillate inventories increased
To be honest, maybe the strategic reserve would be more likely to come into play if Iran decided to play games.
They always appear to be taking calculated risks, and already US has boosted forces in the Persian Gulf due to their games ( and they are still pals with Russia)
Theaky Lol !
Not quite but was a bit of a sweeping statement I must admit !!
Your take on it is kind of what I meant .
Https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
Enjoying the weather :)
God forbid Putin in his madness sees it as an opportunity to attack the USA.
Jezzoo, was that an attempt at sarcasm, Lol.
I seriously doubt Putin would be daft enough to make a strike against the United States, but they are very capable of strikes against American infrastructure and interests. Oil platforms shipping, underwater cables etc. In any scenario a depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be sadly missed.
Theaky mentioned national security which is the first thing I thought of.
God forbid Putin in his madness sees it as an opportunity to attack the USA.
I would hazard a guess that the 353.6 million barrels are not all available barrels,as doubt all can be pumped out,( unless that figure is only available barrels).
So if at least 10% ( a guess)has to be left in storage are we getting close to the end game?
How many million boe reduction needed to boost PoO I wonder ? 3m, 4m, 5m ?
Meoryou, Thanks for the reply. I had a feeling the Democrats were playing politics and trying to engineer the oil price. They are playing with national security and it will have to stop soon.
Cheers.
Stop and when they do will this head north ?
Neil,
I share your frustration. It seems that buying back 10 million shares a day is enough to limit our daily drop to a few pence. Hopefully supply issues will raise PoO, demand won’t die and we’ll be recognised again as the cash machine we already are before too long.
Tinker
This week, SPR inventory dropped for the tenth week in a row as another 1.8 million barrels of congressionally mandated crude oil was sold during the week ending June 2. There are now 353.6 million barrels—the lowest amount of crude oil in the SPR since September 1983.
So there is the answer to Theaky question.
US still,paying politics,and their reserve is getting rather low