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A key point in Friday's report imo
"Finally, we expect to sign a Gas Sales Agreement and obtain a Development Licence for the Ntorya Area, securing the long-term development of Ruvuma imminently."
Yes, it's that oft used word again, but this time I believe its coming
To be fair, the substance of the RNS is dictated by ARA/APT. As their appointee, he has a say in the wording & nuance etc. But the RNS represents what they want the world to know.
The worm appears to have turned Roger, for how long we all wonder ????????????
Probably deviate CH-1 well from original position. 3D is used for drillbit target.
Very True Rojo, you just gained a first recommend from me? Go careful you might earn a beer if you keep it up lol
Great Expectations, by Chas Santos !
ADD...
Construct new drill pad
and lots more to come
Pad Location decision - TICK ONE
NT2 flow test results
Scirrocco deal complete
3D results
Gas sales agreement
FFD sign off
25 year development licence
Rig contracted Spud date
Drilling of 3rd appraisal well
NT1 well workover
Pipeline completion
First Gas Production from NT2
All fully funded and all due this year!
Farm Out of Nyuni License.
Newly Added with an unknown timeline
The government shows confidence in asking Aminex to Farm out rather than relinquish the Nyuni area as planned. Meanwhile neighbouring Orca continue with 3D seismic over Aminex prospect with their results due later this year helping to define Aminex position further on the license. Speculating that would put Orca in prime position for a farm in, but if significant finds are made, it may tempt ARA to come in on that license as well as Ruvuma.
All speculation and opinion Crusty none of us will know until we know. Would like to think you are wrong, but if it does come, then by that time I expect I will have made a tidy packet. You too I don't doubt. Good luck
Why haven;t thye done it long ago Roger, well maybe because the interminable wait for the Fram-Out has only (relatively) recently been completed and, to date at least and, until AEX finally farm-out Kili, they are still technically an operator. It is only when that final act is complete that the original strategy is officially dead in the water. Fwiw that does not necessarily mean that the stated, current (non operating) strategy is not reversible now, or in the future. If not then I honestly believe it is only a question of when and not if ARA revise their strategy with AEX in one way, shape or form.
Sooner the 1.5 BG, but yes I'd be happy to consolidate a new low of 1.30 or more.
My guess is there will be some consolidating around the 1.30p mark, but yes that's the direction : )
Hopefully move up to 1.5p by next week.
Lots of news due in the pipeline
Sounds like a lot of progress has been made and is about to be realised imminently. Just 1p, £40m Mcap for an asset about to be monetised and no debt no funding required. $35m of that valuation is the farmout carry. So hardly any valuation for the gas.. Cheap cheap cheap.
I think this explains it Aimster : )
. "We also expect a completed well-test of the Ntorya-2 well ("NT-2") soon, providing information that will facilitate the construction of a 35-kilometre pipeline to the Madimba gas processing facility by the Government of Tanzania. "
Pete while you’re looking in, what’s you take on this statement “Finalisation of terms for the construction of (i) an export pipeline from Ntorya to the Madimba Gas Plant”
Is ARA paying for the Pipeline construction or just the tie-in to the wells?
That goes back to the old question crusty, if they wanted to buy Aex out, why haven't they done it a long time ago and at less than half the value it is now? From conversations I've had in the past that won't happen, but we can never say never because circumstances change on a daily basis. All I can think is that there is some sort of strategic plan that benefits all concerned because otherwise it wouldn't make not much sense to have not done.
Could it be those tax implications of claiming back exploration costs playing a big part? I don't have that corporate level taxation knowledge to make anything more than a guess.
Roger, to your point "do SARA want Nyuni/ Kiliwani? Well if they did they have had plenty of opportunty to make their interest known. I suspect that it is too small and, as yet, too risky; KN1 has largely failed and very questionable as to whether it is cost effective or commercially viable to re-work it? Other than that very little is known about the potential of the license area and even the Orca 3D will only cast some light on a small part of it. Hence I would suggest that it is insufficiently de-risked for their liking.
I fear that, longer term and without AEX having the ability of being an operator, the rationale for ARA original investment has disappeared; once upon a time AEX would have owned the majority interest and operator status of their licences
, which would have given ARA/APT the opportunity to buy them out of their majority share and become the Operator of the asset in their stead. If AEX can or wish no longer to be that majority stakeholder and operator in any of it's assets, it defeats ARA's original investment logic. Do they now have any reason to keep their 30%? Or maybe it would now make more sense for them to simply buy the other 70% and own the all AEX assets outright?
BG,
Not sure AEX have anything up their sleeve for Nyuni, as they said in 2022:
"Nyuni Area
More than two years have passed since Aminex first notified the Ministry of Energy to move into the Second Exploration Period ("SEP") of the Nyuni Area PSA. Despite a number of exchanges with the Tanzanian authorities, the terms for entry into the SEP have not been agreed. Throughout, Aminex has sought an industry partner to progress a work programme on Nyuni with no success. Accordingly, the Company has opened discussions with the Tanzanian authorities regarding the return of the licence to the Ministry of Energy."
So well over 2 years searching for a farm out partner with no luck.
Maybe APT or Orca could be interested, but APT farmed into Ruvuma on 11 July 2018 and were in discussion with AEX on farm in long before that, but haven't show any interest in Nyuni in 5 years, including the two years AEX stepped up looking for a farm in partner and must surely have offered it to APT.
The only reason AEX are looking for a farm in partner is because the Tanz Gov't have asked AEX to do that.
"The Tanzanian authorities requested that we continue efforts to secure a farm-in partner over the next year, to which we have agreed."
I'd say with Orca working the shallow water zone and doing 3D Seismic over Kiliwani for nowt, they they are the prime candidate to farm in, it's their bag.
Which is why I want to understand what, if any tax benefits there are to be had for Ara.
The government could quite easily have said you surrender it and well give it to Ara if they want it.
Of course we don't know it is Ara that they have in mind, so I'm speculating that it might be.
With Orca doing 3D out there, there are possibilities that way too.
So much planned action going on this year, this has thrown something else interesting into the mix. Two years to pull off at least I would think?
Sorry. To be clear I would not rule out the possibility of AEX Farming Out to APT but once you have the controlling stake in AEX's only remaining assets why not simply buy the rest? AEX can surely no longer be remotely condiered by ARA / APT as their East African O&G vehicle if all AEX can do is buy monority stakes in other licences - ARA could just as easily do that themselves?
The only possible reason is for damage limitation - it would be AEX and shareholders that would fund the "risk" capital, dilution, funding etc, incubate the asset during exploration and appraisal only then to sell it on to ARA when the risk has been reduced.
@edgar you ask "Remember their declaration that Aminex was to be the Zubair vehicle for entering East Africa." Yes, indeed I absolutely do BUT that was when AEX were and were always expected to be "an operator". If AEX loses that status in perpetuity I think all bets could be off for ARA's longer term involvement? Why would you want a stake in a "Portfolio Investment Company" when you are yourselves (ARA) an Investment Company....?
My thoughts too and perhaps the government is looking to have a tried and trusted team. Ufufuo has mentioned positive tax implications in the past with all the losses to write off before Aex get clobbered for tax on income. As ARA own 30% any further investment may be beneficial too?
I might try and chat with him as he is pretty hot on accountants.
I like it, Aminex must have something up their sleeves, or I can't see the point of Aminex trying for another year to farmout when they have already exhausted all previous efforts.