The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Strange how you’re not so quick to comment when the sp rises.
I wonder why.
And RKH goes down…
Oil going up again due to cut in production from several suppliers.
'Rockhopper is contesting the Annulment – a process likely to take some 18-24 months from October 2022'
Seems like they're lowering expectations on the timescale of the award decision?
Hope this gives me chance to top up at a lower price.
'? First campaign of 18 wells, 11 of which to be drilled pre-first oil'
Are these all production wells for phase 1 or are some in Isobel??
Mike
And don’t forget Isobel. You can double those numbers.
the npv 10 figure of 4.3bn at 100% working interest is based on 269mn barrells - the 3c figure of 1129million barrells would be a totally different ball game, plus could be upside to 77usd per barrell
A succinct presentation, along with OPEC’s moves another two steps closer to the tipping point for this share.
The market has to be starting take notice of this at some point.
NPV10 of $4.3billion
RKH has 35%
That’s almost $1.5billion
Current value of company is circa £60M
So that’s a 20x difference
And that is just the start
GLA
New PP Slide Deck just been posted on RKH web site.
https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/RKH-Corporate-Update-April-2023.pdf
DEM
Rystad Energy now believes $110/barrel by summer! And stay above $100 for most of the rest of 2023.
https://e24.no/energi-og-klima/i/8Jx3zx/rystad-tror-oljeprisen-naar-110-dollar-til-sommeren-etter-opec-kutt
after a surprise cut by Saudi's and Opec. Seems they aren't happy with mid $70's and acted accordingly to increase price.
With SL's life of field cost around $27.5/b, it remains the case, that Navitas are almost certain to sanction,
and I doubt they will be dragging their heels like PMO did !
Thanks Norseman. Oder of events now understood.
Talking about Bluewater: They have Bleo Holman FPSO becoming available end 2024 ( latest end 2025).
https://www.repsolsinopecuk.com/news/repsol-sinopec-announce-contract-extension-of-bleo-holm-fpso
https://www.bluewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Bleo-Holm.pdf
https://www.repsolsinopecuk.com/news/repsol-sinopec-announce-contract-extension-of-bleo-holm-fpso
Whackford
The Final Investment Decision is normally based on front end engineering design (FEED) where the cost has been estimated to within +/- 20% or so. To do that in our case we need to know details of the FPSO we are going to redeploy so we know what changes are required to the topsides process system and hull and also cost of the lease. So I would think Navitas would issue a letter of intent first with a FPSO operator like Bluewater for example like this:
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/65942/oilexco_enters_loi_with_bluewater_to_deploy_fpso_at_north_seas_huntington/
Case Outcomes
The outcome of cases at ICSID has been consistently balanced between States and investors—and 2022 was no different. Overall, 49% of cases concluded in 2022 were decided by tribunals and 51% were settled or otherwise discontinued.
Among cases decided by tribunals, 56% of awards upheld the investors’ claims in part or in full. Of the remaining share, 28% of awards rejected all of the investors’ claims on the merits, 8% of awards declined jurisdiction, and 8% of cases were dismissed for manifest lack of legal merit.
The Falklands war started.
God bless the those who lost their lives.
From 2021 Annual Report: “Employees
The Group had 12 employees at the year end, two of whom are Executive Directors. The Group seeks to employ people on the basis of merit and ability to perform the required roles. The Group does not discriminate on any grounds including race, gender, religion, age, nationality or sexual orientation”
———
12 employees to do what???
Well I’m expecting an ICSID update next week. This committee has been quite hot on sticking to the timetable so I think they will issue a decision by 5th April.
I have no idea what they decision will be(!) but I think we will hear this week.
Not expecting any updates, we’ll not from the RKH BoD.
Their attitude towards shareholders has been atrocious.
Noboil. But that was 4 years and 3 months ago and every week after that. Still waiting though… However her timeline changes daily/weekly/monthly/yearly. And if that fails just pretend to forget. Simple. Yes she is.
Anyone expecting an update next week?
Just found this;
Petrojarl Knarr has been at Aker Solutions yard at Stord, Norway since August 2022 after completing oil production on the Knarr project in Norway.
“Aker Solutions intends to contract tugs to tow the Petrojarl Knarr FPSO from Norway to Dubai H2 2023 ready for its major upgrade. It expects the EPC work to begin H1 2024 and finish at the end of 2025.”
So if Navitas intend to have oil flowing late 2026 then they would need to find a suitable FPSO by H2 2024 to allow time for it to travel to a suitable shipyard for refit.
Still not sure how FID works though, do they FID then go look at booking the rig, manpower, etc or do they get letters of intent signed off on costs and get everything lined up ready for the FID project sanction button to be pushed? Either way they will have to get some brass in before all that.
LTT
Thanks Thenorseman. Are you saying they will need to make a contract for the FPSO before FID? I would have thought it was the other way round - but I know little of these matters.
Thanks for that Thenorseman. Are you saying a separate drill facility / rig for the development drilling ?
We have finished the exploration and appraisal drilling - all paid for.
We will still have to do development drilling whilst FPSO is upgraded at the yard and later
Next big news is the contract for the FPSO selected to be redeployed. This will be very soon now as they need to know the scope and cost and scope of changes/upgrade they have to do to get to FID.