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A piece about the market in general not just Bank shares. Worth a read imho.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/07/buy-the-dip-despite-inflation-fears-barclays-says-.html
bald_eagle, Good points well made.
MrA, even in the supermarket/grocery sector Morrison's is not typical....I believe the American hedge funds were interested because they own most of the store bricks & mortar. The Yanks will probably do some accounting trick to lease back the stores and sell off the real estate for vast sums. I loved it when the Glasers bought Man U and got the company to take out a loan to pay themselves back, brilliant!
If foreign investors spot an undervalued asset they will pounce. Same with entertainment businesses, the yanks (Netflix/Amazon/etc) have the money IF they identify an asset they want.
Our technology companies have all been sold to foreign investors....we are not afraid of selling our crown jewels. Maybe BARC will go that way one day but I'm not gonna hold my breath.
Imagine what BARC profits would be if base rate was 3.5%, which it was July 2003. Ahhh, halcyon days!!
1.98 today
“Again, whilst it may seem unlikely, it is not impossible. But would agree, at this moment in time the likelihood are long odds.”…. In relation to M&A activity for Barclays and the UK Banking Sector in general.
Good Morning bald_eagle,
In part-ex, yes, your responses are rational. I don’t have the figures or links at hand but just a 0.25% Base rate uplift has a significant affect on Profit uplifts for all UK banks. A quick search on Google would confirm.
As for my M&A example of Morrisons, what I was trying to emphasise was (but somewhat poorly LOL) was that bids materialised “out of the blue” for this sector, apparently from nowhere, with the market surprised as no rumours had even been generated that this may happen. Again, whilst it may seem unlikely, it is not impossible. But would agree, at this moment in time the likelihood are long odds.
Anyway, let’s see if the ‘sheep’ can remain in the 190p+ field?
All imho please MYOC and Good Luck My Friend.
"I did read from various sources that speculation of a small incremental rate hikes being brought forward for commencement within HY1 of 2022 now looked a possibility."
=============================================
Mr A, you have some good points I sort of agree with, it is just a matter of probability & the impact of BARC's SP. A small base rate increase is likely quite soon. The BoE will want to increase it a little bit (from effectively zero) to give it ammunition to fight inflation (if inflation becomes deep seated). But I'm not sure interest rates would rise to levels that would substabtially benefit BARC's profits...but every little would help I suppose.
The 'problem' is that the BoE seems to rely on interest rates almost exclusively to tackle inflation. At current base rate level we are extremely vulnerable to inflation with no mechanism to control it (perhaps they will find other ways to dampen inflation).....although the PM's comments on higher wages mush be causing Rishi to pull his beautifully coiffured hair out!!
Your comments on M&A is also valid although you started talking about the banking sector but had Morrisons as an example. I agree that Chinese & Americans have 'cash to burn' and would like to "solidify them into something more tangible." but I'm not sure the banking sector is probably high on their wish list....love to be proven wrong!
PUBLISHED: 22:07, 2 August 2021 | UPDATED: 22:07, 2 August 2021 The BoE could raise interest rates earlier than expected in the face of soaring in inflation, says HSBC boss. CFO Ewen Stevenson predicts the base rate could start moving from mid-2022.
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-9853433/BoE-set-raise-rates-earlier-expected-says-HSBC-boss.html
On the negative side a possible American Debt Default is the next “crisis” whereby a conclusion is expected in the next 2 weeks, to coincide with or close to the Barclays Q3 Results. Google it. Great!…. big sigh.
Good Evening bald_eagle, I hope you are well? In respect of…
“ Barc's 'leaked' q3 results would not impact the whole sector.” I would have to disagree on this point. Watch the sector come Thursday 21st October and the announcement of the Barclays results. If they are viewed as positive by the Market and they go up, then watch the majority of the other UK Bank stocks react in a positive manner accordingly.
“ A base rate hike is far far in the future IMO given the state of the economy.”. Interesting one this. I did read from various sources that speculation of a small incremental rate hikes being brought forward for commencement within HY1 of 2022 now looked a possibility. I’ll try and find at least one of the links.
“And M&A in UK banking is news to me....the Yanks & the Chinese prefer something else (IMO).” I’ve gone for my hat-trick of having to disagree on this point also. Bloomberg did an in depth speculation study on Mergers and Acquisitions within the whole European Banking Sector which I did post a link to some months ago. Again, I read somewhere that the US, Chinese and other global Corporate institutions were awash with money sitting in stocks that had grown and therefore were looking to sell up and use there profits to solidify them into something more tangible. e.g. the purchase of Morrisons Supermarket. Where did that auction to purchase it come from… apparently a real surprise out of the blue. Whilst European Banking M&A may not entirely probable that does not mean it is impossible.
Anyway, a healthy opposite point of view but to full respect shown to you.
Good Luck my Friend.
If it will be a cold harsh winter, I will need to sell out at 2.05 first and the hunker down and wait for spring like a sleeping bear.
Mr A, I saw your tongue in cheek suggestions as to why the banking sector 'jumped' today:
a) “Leaked” news of a better than predicted Q3?
b) B of E Base Rate increase earlier than expectedl?
c) Potential Mergers and Acquisitions in the Sector?
I'm not sure I understand all of the above, apart from searching for an answer when none is obvious. Barc's 'leaked' q3 results would not impact the whole sector. A base rate hike is far far in the future IMO given the state of the economy. And M&A in UK banking is news to me....the Yanks & the Chinese prefer something else (IMO).
Perhaps this is just the equivalent of an Indian Summer....before a cold la Nina winter!!
Good Evening bald_eagle, 198.7p or 200p what’s 1.3p between friends? As per one of my earlier posts, imho definitely something bigger in the air I think than a Suisse Credit recommendation. That on the basis that the pretty much most of the UK Bank Sector had a good positive uplift today: As per today’s individual percentage daily uplift as per below… all respectable jump upwards.
Virgin Money 4.79%
Barclays 3.91%
Lloyds 3.84%
Standard Chartered 3.06%
NatWest 3.05%
HSBC 2.29%
I thought that Strang(e) man suggested 198.7p was the next hurdle?...after that it's plain sailing..."within a day or two"...to 216p (or perhaps "longer term")!
Personally I'm not so sure the elastic band (bungee) has been severed and the tension will be wanting to drag us back. But I'm happy to be proven wrong...more than happy!!
Jedi614, thanks for the link.
Good Luck my Friend.
eastern _investor, definitely something bigger in the air I think than a Suisse Credit recommendation, albeit to be fair to their rationale and reasons, they all seemed logical to me. Personally, if I were to speculate then I would not be surprised of any of the following:.
a) “Leaked” news of a better than predicted Q3?
b) B of E Base Rate increase earlier than expectedl?
c) Potential Mergers and Acquisitions in the Sector?
All pure speculation on my behalf. Let’s see what tomorrow brings eh? I hope you get your 205p+ soon.
Best of luck my friend.
The new fence indeed. Maybe we shall like the grass on this side or hanker for the old stuff on the other side . Fingers crossed we hit £2 soon. I bought the first part of my current holding at £2.05 the day after the 2017 election. Let's hit that again as the situation has improved since then.
eastern_investor, Hallelujah!!! It looks like one has jumped the fence ad the pack have followed? Grazing and resting overnight… very pleasing. Next fence in the adjacent farmer field 200p+
All imho please MYOC and GLA.
Here we come. Choo choo
I predict BARC at 225p by the end of this year. 350p within 18 months. Good luck, Brighty
BARC going Great Guns....
Well done to all Holders, I'm surprised it's broken the 191 area towards the upside.. Sad I sold out now, always my Luck.
Hope you guys make a good return on your funds in here.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/962283/barclays-upgraded-on-back-of-strong-investment-bank-tailwind-962283.html
Might have something to do with rise today.
Not the buyback, that has being going on a while now and is only small amounts in comparison. Perhaps a recognition that this should be £2 plus per share based on dividend payments alone.
Looks that way hopefully and still going!
Is this due to the buyback RNS do we think?
is chat not working ??