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…so far while we are waiting
Bit of summary
Submitted a bed and isa with II early Thursday morning and it’s still not been actioned.
Need the price to fall for once
It would be significantly higher if the news was out. But it can’t be far away either way. Let’s hope it’s positive as it’ll be 20p + if it’s good news.
Wonder if that result is known ?
GLA
Boboil
Do we really think international lawyers/arbiters do any routine work over Easter week?
Cubane
Any thoughts on whether the change in Italian government will change their position - ie. the new government could have a different viewpoint, or merely wish to draw a line under this and pin the blame on previous administration. I'm not close to the political situation in Italy, so merely speculating.........
Good morning Buffit, I'm sure the 30 day limit will be applied, however I guess the doubt is over what 'the last submission on the request' is exactly. I am reasonably hopeful we may have a decision in the next day or so, but Italy are certainly in the business of stringing this out as long as possible.
Thanks SpaceHoppa - " if the 30 day limit was indeed from the 6th of March " - so there's doubt about the simple interpretation of the 30 day rule - that's what I was seeking clarification on.
Decision on Stay of Enforcement
Within 30 days after the later of the constitution of the Tribunal/ Committee or the last submission on the request
73(3)(d)
March 6, 2023 - The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on the stay of enforcement of the award.
30 days from the 6th of March was last Wednesday. In theory it could have been announced on Thursday, however news does not always get announced that quickly, Friday and Monday holidays, so perhaps tomorrow or Wednesday if the 3o day limit was indeed from the 6th of March.
For what it is worth, I feel it is more likely Italy will be refused a stay.
I have no clue…. neither does the ad hoc Committee it seems :)
Re 30 days mentioned in connection with stay of enforcement, anyone know what that means in plain English ?
That is very welcome news, pauldrayton,....thanks for posting link ( https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anna-roberts-76616242_full-job-description-and-apply-here-activity-7049699986313228289-iyCj? ).
BW
Great find guys,
All falling into place
This is significant news : shows FI are getting into gear for something to happen and echos Navitas statements and actions with action. It’s been such a long wait - so hoping 2024 is brighter for us holders
….Delaware last year were about 25% less productive on average than its wells the year before, according to Novi Labs data.
Chevron executives said last week the company missed its oil-production target in the Delaware, citing higher-than-expected depletion rates. The company plans to revise its approach in the Permian, they said, shifting some drilling into New Mexico, and targeting areas that are likely more productive—moves that will reduce its pace of activity somewhat.
Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth said last week the rate of production growth and drilling activity the U.S. shale industry saw a decade ago “is unlikely to be repeated,” though the Permian still has areas that haven’t been developed. Chevron plans to boost production in the Permian to 1 million barrels a day by 2025, eventually plateauing at 1.2 million later this decade.
Devon has drilled some of the most productive wells the Delaware had ever seen, in an area the company dubbed Boundary Raider. In 2020, its average well pumped more than 342,000 barrels over a nine-month period, but the following year, its average fell to more than 167,000 barrels, according to FLOW President Tom Loughrey. Companies’ midlevel wells are still producing steadily, but gushers are harder to come by, Mr. Loughrey said.
“The big well is coming down hard right now,” he said.
Rick Muncrief, Devon’s chief executive, attributed the productivity decline to maturing U.S. oil-and-gas fields. “I’m not terribly surprised, and I’m not terribly alarmed,” he said, saying that wells drilled in the Boundary Raider area still generated excellent returns for the company. Mr. Muncrief said that tight crude supplies pushing oil prices higher would make tapping into less productive formations economically viable for operators.
Investment bank Raymond James Financial Inc.estimated in a September report that public producers and private operators in the Delaware hold about 7.2 years of sweet spots, and less than eight years in the Midland basin, the other major portion of the Permian.
Shale’s sluggishness means global oil markets will have to rely on Middle Eastern crude over the next decades, said Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
“We’re just not gonna have that big growth pump like we used to,” he said of U.S. crude production.
From WSJ March 8:
At a major industry conference here this week, executives cited the stagnation in shale, saying it signaled a return to more dependence on foreign energy sources and more challenging times ahead for major U.S. companies, after most of them posted record earnings last year.
“The world is going back to a world that we had in the ’70s and the ’80s,” said ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Ryan Lance, during a panel at the conference called CERAWeek by S&P Global. He warned that OPEC would soon supply more of the world’s oil.
Oil production from the best 10% of wells drilled in the Delaware portion of the Permian was 15% lower last year, on average, than top 2017 wells, according to data from analytics firm FLOW Partners LLC. Meanwhile, the average well put out 6% less oil than the prior year, according to an analysis of data from analytics firm Novi Labs.
The atrophy of once-booming sweet spots has big implications for the global oil market, which years ago could count on rapidly growing U.S. oil production to blunt the effects of supply disruptions and rising demand. Without successful exploration or technological advances, the industry’s inventory constraints are expected eventually to push companies to tap lower quality wells that would require higher oil prices to attract investment, industry executives say.
Oil production in the U.S. rose from about 7.2 million barrels a day a decade ago to a high of about 13 million barrels a day before the pandemic. But domestic output last year grew at one-third of the annual average pace seen in shale’s heyday from 2017 to 2019, and hasn’t yet caught up with prepandemic levels.
The slowdown was mostly because of investor pressure on companies to curtail spending and limit growth in favor of generating higher returns. At the same time, weaker well results in the Delaware basin contributed to flattening purput.
U.S. output grew about half as fast as many forecasters initially expected last year, and is projected to increase by about the same amount this year, according to the Energy Information Administration.
The recent degradation in well performance has stoked executives and investors’ concerns about the industry’s runway for growth, and has led companies to consider mergers this year.
Companies such as Chevron Corp. CVX -1.31% , Devon Energy Corp. and others that have held the Permian up as a central pillar of their future plans saw top wells yield less crude last year than the previous year.
Chevron, one of the largest landholders in the Permian, drilled some of the region’s most prolific wells in Culberson County, Texas, but some of its newer wells there have seen productivity decline.
The wells Chevron brought online in Culberson County last year are ultimately expected to produce 42% less oil, on average, than wells that began producing in 2018, according to FLOW’s estimates. The top 10% of wells Chevron brought online across the Delaware last
Old article in FT 2015 gives some insight into FIG thinking.
——-
The authorities in Stanley expect to receive a 9 per cent share of production revenues through a longstanding framework offered to oil explorers, while successful developers will also pay a tax of 26 per cent on company profits to the Falklands government.
Stephen Luxton, director of mineral resources for the Falklands government, defends the terms on offer to successful developers — seen as being among the most generous in the world.
“It’s an important principle to maintain fiscal stability for companies considering investing in projects over 15 to 25 years,” he says. “Companies need a good return to work here as it’s such a remote area.”
Mr Luxton is reluctant to be drawn on just how much money could flow into the coffers of the Falklands government should the Sea Lion field proceed to development — although he agrees it could be transformational.
The islands, which have fewer than 3,000 inhabitants, generate an annual gross domestic product of £100m — or less than £30,000 a head.
It’s an important principle to maintain fiscal stability for companies considering investing in projects over 15 to 25 years. Companies need a good return to work here as it’s such a remote area
Stephen Luxton, Falkland Islands government
The islands’ economy has traditionally been based on sheep farming, although much of the Falklands government’s revenues are now derived from exports of frozen squid, fished by foreign vessels whose crews are recruited in Korea, Vietnam and other Asian countries.
All that will change if the Sea Lion field proceeds. The first stage of the field’s development would deliver 60,000 barrels of crude a day, and the Falklands government could feasibly receive $2.5bn in oil-related tax over 15 years. That equates to close to $1m of tax per head of population from the first stage of the project alone.
Another $2.5bn of tax could be obtained from a potential second phase of the Sea Lion field’s development. If there is further exploration success in the waters off the Falklands, the islands could secure billions of dollars more in tax over the coming decades.
Mr Luxton and other Falklands officials have visited Norway and discussed how to apply the lessons learned by the Nordic country in managing its vast hydrocarbon wealth accrued since the 1970s.
“It’s an issue that has been firmly on our radar for a number of years,” says Mr Luxton. “We have to look after this resource responsibly and look to stretch the benefit over several generations.”
From FT yesterday:
—————
“There is a fine line of uncertainty,” says Amy Myers Jaffe, a professor at New York University. Raising prices now, while many poorer consumer countries are already struggling with debt and a strong dollar, “runs the risk of leading the world into a larger financial crisis?.?.?.?where high oil prices aggravate other destabilising factors and, bingo, we see a collapse of everything including oil prices”.
Others think Saudi Arabia is betting the world economy can shoulder costlier oil, especially as China’s economy reopens. Saudi Arabia is conscious about stunting demand, but believes a price of up to $120 is tolerable, says Amrita Sen, head of research at Energy Aspects.
She thinks the price rise this week was mainly driven by traders looking to cover short positions, but expects a much stronger price surge later in the year.
Meanwhile, producer countries are also feeling the impact of higher inflation and are trying to boost their own revenues in response, argues oil hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand. And crude remains relatively cheap, Andurand argues.
In inflation-adjusted terms, Thursday’s Brent settlement price of $85.12 a barrel would equate to about $73 five years ago. The record-high oil price of $147 a barrel in 2008 would be closer to $200 today.
“If you look at Opec countries they’re suffering from inflation like everyone else — their imports are up a lot in dollar terms,” says Andurand, who has predicted oil prices could hit $140 a barrel this year. “They’re clearly saying that $80 or $90 a barrel is too low. It’s likely to be much higher than $100 before they react and start raising production.”
Thanks Paul
This seems like the most significant news for some time, and arising from the recent visit to the FI
I just hope the city reads it this way and starts quietly buying
Cubane
That looks like a job they been tasked to fill ASAP
Great find Paul
> trading@11p for months now
More like a recent rise to ~11p on the back of positive news flow, after trading at 9p for months
The true value of RKH is the future takeout price per share. Takeout at sp 50p? 75p? £2? £10? £25? £50? £100?