We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Sorry forgot to add the link!
https://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/government-affairs/332480/resignation-of-3-technocrat-ministers-3-advisers
Resignation of 3 technocrat ministers, 3 advisers accepted
- Cabinet Division issues notification
- They resigned on November 19
The resignation letters of three technocrat ministers and three advisers to the prime minister have been accepted.
The Cabinet Division issued a notification in this regard on Wednesday.
The three technocrat ministers -- Posts and Telecommunications Minister Mustafa Jabbar, Science and Technology Minister Yeafesh Osman and State Minister for Planning Dr Shamsul Ala -- resigned from their respective posts on November 19.
Besides, Prime Minister’s Economic Affairs Adviser Dr Mashiur Rahman, Energy Adviser Dr Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury and International Affairs Adviser Dr Gowher Rizvi also resigned from their respective posts on the same day.
After the resignation of the three technocrat ministers, there are now 44 cabinet members excluding the prime minister, and of them 23 are ministers, 18 are state ministers and three are deputy ministers.
Great work as usual Searcher. Why would Energy Advisor resign? Change of direction? GLA.
This has to be positive news ......
Besides, the resignation letters of three advisers of the Prime Minister have also been accepted, according to a cabinet division official.
They are the Economic Affairs Adviser Mashiur Rahman, "Energy Adviser Tawfiq-E-Elahi Chowdhury" and the International Affairs Adviser Gowher Rizvi.
https://www.daily-sun.com/post/723659
"Bangladesh will face energy supply shortage, inflation, economic downturn, inequality, public debt and unemployment in the next two years, according to a survey of the World Economic Forum (WEF)."
This year, businesspeople are thinking energy shortage would be main challenge, which was not a matter of concern for them the previous year.
https://www.thedailystar.net/business/news/wef-identifies-6-challenges-bangladesh-would-face-two-years-3516881
.......I am sure you are accurate in your assessment of Bangladesh politics and the fact that so much 'graft' and corruption is a normal part of Bangla life.
I get the distinct impression that Hasina is fundamentally lazy, likes to play the SE Asian matriarch and tell the world that if Covid, the Ukraine / Russia war and Gaza had not happened, then everything would have worked out fine.
She came unstruck because the world was changing, she was never going to match the garment growth of the previous five years and her 'electrification and energy policy' IMPORT, IMPORT, IMPORT was blue-sky thinking and with no back up plan if things started to unravel.
They did start to unravel big-time, but she has two tenuous lifelines, a) she rigged th election so she won and beneath the black, sodden paddy-field landscape which is Phulbari, there lies abundant coal, enough to keep the country going for thirty years.
Someone has to finally make first move.
The Bunglas cannot fund the mines and engineering / generation costs, so are we going to see a battle between Modi & Beijing for pre-eminence in Bangladesh's future. Will 15th January signal a new Master Plan - there is all to play for.
Global coal usage in 2023 hit a record high, surpassing 8.5 billion tons for the first time, on the back of strong demand in emerging and developing countries such as India and China, IEA said in a recent report.
Reported on CNBC that Global Coal hit a record high last year. Despite all the attempts to demonise coal its usage continues to grow because there is no alternative in countries such as China, India and many SE Asian countries. It seems to me against that background Bangladesh must start to mine Phulbari as an economic and political imperative.
For the record, I remain on perfectly friendly terms with GCM/Asia Energy, for whom I did consultancy work. I was not an employee although I was in country a lot.
My misgivings have always been against the Bunglas. I learned not to trust them, and I am still to be convinced that the leopard has changed its spots.
Nasrul Hamid - he must have some good points, but I don't know what they are. He is economic with the facts and the truth and he oversaw the chaotic operations of the countrywide Power & Energy department. These were just a joke. Power stations without fuel, unloading facilities which were grossly inadequate and capsizing coal transit vessels. How can we forget the capacity charges, charges passed through for payment where the generators had not even been run, never mind producing power.
There has to be a big question mark about his ability and suitability for high office.
'…Phulbari has been right for the last 15 yrs.'
Posting 15 years? That's some bitterness towards a former employer! Lol
Remember every nay sayer is right until they are wrong. The financial situation now is so desperate for Bangladesh that they only way they can get coal for their power stations in the coming years is by mining it themselves.
Problem is not being right last 15 years but being STUCK in mindset when other factors have change in very material way.
This is difference in being "expert on Hasina" to understanding of Economics and how energy supply / demand / pricing have change in recent times.
I would not invest in this in last 15 years - I WILL invest in this now because of above!
Be Wise & flexible to changing situation 🦉
"Looks like Nasrul Hamid still has a job, but in what department I wonder!"
Maybe counting paperclips Searcher LOL!!
Https://www.bssnews.net/news-flash/167431
Looks like Nasrul Hamid still has a job, but in what department I wonder!
The 11 state ministers are Simeen Hussain Rimi (Gazipur-4), Nasrul Hamid (Dhaka-3), Zunaid Ahmed Palak (Natore-3), Mohammad Ali Arafat (Dhaka-17), Md Mahibbur Rahman (Patuakhali-4), Khalid Mahmud Chowdhury (Dinajpur-2), Zaheed Farooque, (Barishal-5), Kujendra Lal Tripura (Khagrachhari), Rumana Ali (Gazipur-3), Shafiqur Rahman Chowdhury (Sylhet-2) and Ahsanul Islam Titu (Tangail-6).
…Phulbari has been right for the last 15 yrs.
Things maybe about to turn, next 2 weeks will be interesting either way. Make or brake.
Successful investor is one who is not stuck in mud of opinion but is flexible in understanding of evolving situation.
Think all can see how extreme / more immediate economic backdrop now very different from before and do not need to be self proclaim "expert on Hasina" (lol) to understand this.
🦉
Phulbari has been standing out head and shoulders for the last 20 years, and throughout those two long decades there have been plenty of juicy references to all the coal there ready for open cut extraction. What's been missing is the will to make it happen and the willingness to take on the powerful nimby lobby led by a group of un-elected mobsters.
How will they buy coal to import after 3 months?
'The current forex reserves in Bangladesh will cover import bills of more than three-months, which is considered by the IMF as a minimum reserve for a low-income country.'
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dhakatribune.com/amp/business/336422/forex-reserves-decline-after-1.27bn-acu-payment
Five coal fields are always mentioned but Phulbari stands out head and shoulders above the others and there is the fact that the Phulbari field runs into the current mine at Barakuparia.
She could threaten to mine another field (leverage on Tang / GCM) but any engineers are going to say STOP, we don't want longwall mining at 500 metres depth, it has to be opencast mining at 150-200 metres depth. Opencast also gives much higher recovery rates.
This is now getting interesting and let's hope China will fund / develop the mine and agree quickly.
Not named on that retained list - will the current energy minister keep his position? He certainly knows the problems.
'State Minister for Power, Energy and Mineral Resources Nasrul Hamid said the new cabinet may be formed by 15 January.....
Answering what challenges may there be for the new government in the future, the state minister said, "The biggest challenge is to keep electricity and energy uninterrupted at the customer level. Keeping it [power and fuel] uninterrupted by keeping all the problems in mind. Keeping fuel and electricity prices affordable at the consumer level is the biggest challenge for the future. I think our ministry is ready for it."
"We should plan for the future keeping all the challenges in mind," he added.
When asked about the challenges of the power sector, he said that the biggest challenge of the power sector is to maintain supply.'
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tbsnews.net/bangladesh/politics/new-cabinet-may-be-formed-15-january-nasrul-hamid-771650%3famp
Spot the missing name -
'AL President and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is going to form her new cabinet, dropping a remarkable number of ministers and state ministers from the current cabinet..................
The current cabinet has 47 members, including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Of them, Obaidul Quader, Hasan Mahmud, AK Abdul Momen, Anisul Huq, Dipu Moni, Imran Ahmed, Saifuzzaman Chowdhury, Bir Bahadur Ushwe Sing, Zahid Faruk, Khalid Mahmud Choudhury, Zahid Ahsan Russel, AKM Enamul Hoque Shameem, Mohibul Hasan Chowdhury may retain in the forthcoming cabinet, the party sources added.'
https://www.daily-sun.com/printversion/details/729630
Think this is good thing to let more complete picture build up of Govt direction with energy policy - All pointing to major shift toward Coal options / Phulbari
When trading resume then should have more focus on uptrending price / realistic valuation for potential. I have my main MATD investment anyway but glad to be holding smaller GCM holding in my portfolio.
Next 1-2 weeks should have trading back & suspect very major re-rate / uptrending price.
🦉
All this news and we are suspended, I guess that’s by design…
'Coal, considered one of the primary energy sources with the lowest global costs, is derived from five coal fields—Barapukuria, Phulbari, Dighipara, Khalashpir, and Jamalganj.'
https://bangladeshpost.net/posts/8-coal-fired-power-plants-on-the-go-129043
Seems so close, it’s hard not to get excited. Not doing my blood Pressure any good, just need the fat lady to sing
Wow, to openly support coal and its multitude of cost benefits is impressive. Has the agreement with Beijing been sketched out and the final plan is just awaiting 'signing off' by Hasina.
Its as if they have said 'we have no alternative, we must now get on with the future.'