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Arm. “Scum” didn’t take 600k off of you. Stock market investments carry different levels of risk and sensible adults choose the level OF RISK that they are prepared to take. Now a free of charge lesson for you; if I had a total of £1k to invest today there will little point to putting that into legal and general at the near 9% yield available even though it carries little or no risk of long term loss. The income will only be £90 per year taxable with half of that lost to inflation, plus I’d expect 20 /30% capital growth over 2/3 years if the economy stabilised, just £2/3 hundred pounds. Hardly life changing. No I’d put my £1k into GKP and there is a good chance that 6 months on it will more than double and potentially grow 5 fold over a couple of years including a return to high dividends. As for the risk, well a £1k lose will not be the end of my world and I won’t accuse anybody of being “scum,”
Now the exact opposite is true if like you I had £600 k today. Put that in legal and general at 9 % and I’d have about £50k per year income and the prospect of £100k or so capital growth over a couple of years, all at negligible risk. If on the other hand I was so stupid as to put that £600k into GKP , and as like you I’m not worth a billion, it would be the end of my World. Even then I would have no right to accuse anyone of being “scum” as the result of my own adult choice. In other words Arm stop winging here and get a life. Free lesson over any further advice is available @ £300. Per HOUR.
I'm here to make money but I think the company, and the Western bloc behind it, particularly the bustards who took it from 4 50 to 1p and took 600k plus off me, are scum
Ha ha Swell, you OK? Geo politics not your bag? Ps 'investing' in Kurd oil is geopolitics u muppet
what a complete pile of ******. you took a punt on a dodgy share and lost your shirt. it’s no one’s fault but yours. stop being a cry baby and admit you’re not cut out for share trading and no amount of bs regarding geopolitics and conspiracies will change that. if you can’t take the heat, dry your eyes and get out of the kitchen.
Their strategy of confusion and passive action is working. The West are lost. Without their base brute strength approach since '45 they have no tact or alternatives. Clearly.
The world has changed. Erdoğan visited Putin and was brought up to speed on the next phase. Ergo told that no visit was permitted.
Fronts are opening. Niger, Kurdistan, soon Pacific. The USA will be forced into solitary isolation, Europe into resource poverty and deindustrialisation. The East will have created a Bloc of all the greatest resource owners.
Putins economic theory from the 90's is coming to full fruition.
This is playing out exactly as I imagined unfortunately however I did not follow my Reason
imagination and prediction, but I followed hope and false articles of people who did not understand geopolitics.
It reminds me of how unintelligent the experts are. It will be the last time that I am caught out in such a way.
Clearly we are in this current situation ( pipeline closure) for longer than I for one and no doubt many had imagined, the Erdogan visit would have been a signal that negotiations that are ongoing had achieved a compromise that is acceptable. On the plus side local sales do seem to be covering basic costs and as GKP is a low cost producer in times when the oil price is high they do have the potential to add a small profit that can increase in the event that this sales outlet becomes the norm. Personally I can’t see a situation where Baghdad would push Kurdistan hard enough to prevent trucked local sales / corrupt exports, and it does seem that the lack of timely budget payments to Kurdistan are starting to hurt, hopefully this will force a resolution before it becomes a military conflict, and that could be the end of GKP. On balance I still believe that @90p this is a buying opportunity, but not so much that I will add to my own long position.
Patience Required
Interesting, waiting to see the outcome of the latest court action or ramping up pressure on Baghdad? 🤷
Quick! Sell up Phatty
Erdogan is not ready to discuss the issue of KRG oil exports with Iraqi officials
🔻His visit to Baghdad has been postponed indefinitely
@DrawMediaNet
🔹Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Iraq has been postponed indefinitely, a government source said.
🔹According to the source, who spoke to Shafaq News, the Turkish side has postponed the visit.
There’s a quick win here Turkey, open the ITP without delay.
From the FT:
Turkey posted a wider than expected current account deficit in July as big imports of energy products and gold offset large inflows from a strong start to the summer tourism season.
The current account deficit, a key barometer of the flow of goods and funds, registered $5.5bn in July, according to the central bank. The figure was significantly worse than the $4.5bn expected by economists in a Reuters poll and brings the year to date deficit above $42bn.
The figures mark a setback for Turkey’s new economic management team, which was appointed in June and has said narrowing the deficit is one of its key priorities.
A periodic or monthly update in support of the share price would be meaningful
Are aware.
And that’s what JH and the Board have done. Nothing more, nothing less.
Don’t think for one moment they actually believe that.
‘It isn’t at all assured, however, that it [the oil] will flow for GKP in its current form.’
I don’t understand this phraseology:-
1) Are you questioning the possible ongoing form of transport i.e. pipe/truck/or even some horrific combo?;
2) Are you considering that there will almost certainly have to be significant changes to GKP’s contractual arrangements involving KRG/ICG/MNR/SOMO/AKIPUR (and any other acronyms you can think of with an interest in the outcome!);
3) Or are you referencing the possible need for financial and management restructuring within GKP to accommodate the changing circumstances as they develop?
4) Or maybe all of the above.
I am.
But the oil will flow.
‘if we are lucky export sales will restart before year end but I wouldn’t at all be surprised if this situation drags on into 2024.’
I’ve already expressed the opinion that export sales will be delayed until Q1 2024. Because of the complexity of the negotiations, given the competing ambitions of the geopoliticians.
And then there's AKIPUR who've defined (to some extent) their expectations before the resumption of exports. Guaranteed payments being at the top of their list.
But the oil will flow.
‘That’s been the case since June. Why do you keep believing las if this is something new.’
That’s easy. There’s a lot of gloom and doom being expressed on this bb right now. And with some justification. But there are some bb contributors who have very little faith in the Board, even though they are, to a man/woman making their own commitment to the cause. Gentle reminder, that’s all.
‘…if local sales stutter and the pipeline remains closed it’s [a placing] a real possibility.’
That view is posited on the very worst case scenario and also involves a serious cash drain which cannot be recovered by the Board because there’s little/no revenue for an extended period. Certainly twelve months. Meanwhile the Board are suggesting a ramping of truck driven production to 40k bopd. Even now they’ve ramped up to 23k.
JH stated in the H/Y Report:-
• While there appears to be significant local demand for Shaikan Field crude, volumes and prices are difficult to predict
• If sustainable local sales do not materialise and absent [of] other revenue sources GKP would take further actions to preserve liquidity
• GKP would also consider additional sources of liquidity as necessary including external financing
JH is NOT saying that’s part of his current plan. Quite the reverse.
But he has a reporting duty to his shareholders, as do the rest of the Board, to include any Company threats that should be recognised as material to the ongoing performance of GKP.
For the Nerds amongst us, it’s listed under Principal Risks and Uncertainties in the H/Y Report. And that section states what those risks and uncertainties are. The Board have a principal duty to cover that ground so that BDO LLP and the shareholders ar
The “local sales” pitch is a joke, the demand they speak of is nothing more than a few spivs taking the crude to a pipeline down stream and selling it at just shy of Brent prices. As long as we’re getting a cut and it keeps going at the current rate or increases then we’ll have to accept it. Doing business in this part of the world has never been without a bit of corruption and nothing will change. The ITP is the only way we’ll grow the company and SOMO will hopefully provide some stability in payments.
Invstrat wrote: GKP are betting their continuity on ‘local sales’ …. and the locals know full well that the management do not have the cahunas to go after unpaid bills for these local sales - so roll up, roll up….. and fill yer tankers the brim …. it’s free.
The rns and investor presentation makes clear that GKp and other IoCs are getting paid in advance.
The threat of placing is if the local sales diminish. Why would they with the price of crude someone is filling up at less than half price lol.
Now if Baghdad find a way to cut off trucking then GKp and other IOCs are in trouble.
ATB and DYOR
They said in the last presentation they're getting paid up front for local sales........
GKP are betting their continuity on ‘local sales’ …. and the locals know full well that the management do not have the cahunas to go after unpaid bills for these local sales - so roll up, roll up….. and fill yer tankers the brim …. it’s free.
The only reason for ‘placings’ is to ensure sufficient funds are available to meet director’s salaries and their massive bonuses before belly-up day arrives.
Who in our management is going after the spiraling pile of unpaid bills in any case ?
Conceed that Erdogan, our local masters and now those in Baghdad need their cuts as a priority before anything can progress around here - so give them an agreed % each and get the next pantomime rolling.
Https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/32535-‘The-ball-is-in-Turkey’s-court’,-says-Iraqi-oil-official-on-resumption-of-Kurdish-oil-export
With the pressure of oil price going up continuously fast, an agreement will be reached soon
https://archive.ph/2023.09.08-132633/https://www.ft.com/content/79ce0cd9-0926-4509-8197-66f6785152cb
200 million mkt cap
Bloody nonsense share at this stage
2023 another write off in gkp history
So in summary you have assessed the risks but do not believe they are high enough to sell the stock. The 'obvious' positive outcome you believe in is that the oil will flow and for this reason you remain a holder and are not panicking. Thanks for confirming. Lol.
*The company was right to state the obvious risk however
"Guys like PUTUP are in danger of panicking; he doesn't get that the oil will flow."
Nah but I'm very cognisant of the risks here which are far greater than at any other time since I've focused on this name.
"One thing's for sure. The oil will flow."
Very likely yes. It isn't at all assured, however, that it will flow for GKP in its present form. We hope the challenges the company face will be resolved favourably but nothing is assured. If we are lucky export sales will restart before year end but I wouldn't at all be surprised if this situation drags on into 2024. How many here thought in March that it was going to be resolved in just a few weeks?
"Particularly since they're now financially invested by their 20% salary deferments... "
That's been the case since June! Why do you keep behaving as if this is something 'new'?
Personally I do not expect a placing in the next couple of weeks. So I'd personally place a next to zero probability on that. However, if local sales stutter and the pipeline remains closed it's a real possibility. Hopefully it doesn't come to that. The company was right not state the obvious risk however.
" Why is asking 'what is the positive' outcome a dumb question?"
Because the answer is obvious and you're just being a d!ck. And I've yet to se you produce any sort of contribution of value to this board. Perhaps you are a paid ramper that doesn't actually own. You seem to forget where my moniker came from: in 2020 "put up or shut up" when everyone was crying that the sky is falling and it was time to buy. I did and it has paid off handsomely.