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Hey all, long time reader first time poster here.
I've been building a position and averaging up on SLP a few times now since early last year and am sitting on a nice 60% overall increase so far. I think there is a way to go on this bull streak considering the product prices and demand and am hugely happy with the management team.
Interested to know if anyone else is also averaging up, and if so any current target buy points you have or techniques for balancing increasing your holdings with protecting gains?
Usually I'm predominantly a value investor/buy and hold kind of guy who is more used to averaging down and waiting, so open to tips as I don't tend to find this kind of stock that I want to top up on more often even as it's going up!
Cheers!
*Revenue split below, apologies, but that's the money :)
Tiger:
1.4% ruthenium
2.4% iridium
So you're right, another $130-$140 to the basket :)
Just to ask, does anybody have a link to the 6E prill split for SLP? (I.e. the prill split that INCLUDES ruthenium and iridium). I'm wondering quite how much money SLP must now be pulling in from iridium. It must be getting on towards their income from palladium. Not bad for an ignored by-product!
(I imagine that SLP's 6E prill split is ballpark comparable to THS's 6E prill split, which contains 4.3% iridium. But a precise number would help!)
Hi Stoodio and CK!
In terms of exposure to the current PGM basket price, Sibanye Stillwater is the best of the majors. Sibanye's purchase a few years ago of palladium miner Stillwater, much criticised at the time, is really paying off for them.
The two companies with the absolute highest PGM basket price (in current market conditions) are SLP and Tharisa (THS). Essentially this is due to the very high rhodium percentage in their prill splits, as they are both processing UG2 ore.
I'm not sure the significance of Nornickel's mine flooding problems has been fully recognised here yet. They are estimating that they will lose production of some 700K PGM ounces this year - mostly palladium, but some rhodium in there as well (Nornickel produce around 13% of the world's annual rhodium supply). It may be worse for them - some Russian commentators are speculating that at least one of the two mines affected may be lost entirely. In these circumstances, it's easy to imagine $20,000/oz rhodium and $3,000/oz palladium for some considerable time.
In other news, note the rocketing price of one of SLP's by products, iridium - now $5,600/oz.
CommandoKai, good on you. Been watching SBSW myself. Regards Rhodium prices, can I just make it abundantly clear, that people, myself included, were licking their lips at the prospect of hitting $7-10,000 p/oz Rh here just a couple of years ago. And here's the thing; I'm still licking my lips at $8,000 p/oz Rhodium prices with respect to SLP.
Now tell me, where we at again? :)
The rhodium price seems to have found support after a fast fall, turned up slightly today according to the Johnson Matthey chart http://www.platinum.matthey.com/prices/price-charts#
Recently everytime it's ended a fall it runs back up again for a decent period as buyers panic to get supplies.
I'm so bullish on Rhodium with it's relative scaricty while at the same time being required by ever growing environmental laws around the world to be forced to be bought by car makers as there is no real full substitute for it.
SLP was already my largest position and I'm not selling any time soon, but to gain even more exposure to the rhodium's perfect storm I've snapped up a big chunk of Sibayne Stillwater (SBSW on the NYSE) as well, as they also do PGM recycling in the US as well as mines in SA, they look cheap as chips too if the average Rhodium price just stays about 10,000 for the year, let alone these levels.
Be aware though that the last day for trading for its dividend is today if anyone was thinking of getting some.
I now have a third of my whole portfolio exposed to PGM prices, while there is a risk Rhodium could come off the boil, I cant see the fundamentals leading to a total collapse in price any time soon, but of course now watch me be proven wrong, still I've put my money where my mouth is.
Nimrod, indeed :) All looking very bullish to me.
Craig, exactly. I agree on the future forward plans, but all in good time buddy, make no mistake about that :) And with respect to the trading patterns and share capital, now you're getting somewhere :) Meant in the most respectful of tones. SLP buying, selling, and broker liquidity of said shares, as I touched on the other day in response to you, is not all as it seems alot of the time. Trust me on this :) Regardless of Africa Asia, these shares have always been relatively tightly held by the other insties an what I would call 'large holding' PI's, of which there are MANY :)
Onwards and upwards :)
Palladium up 9.6% in a week.
Platinum up 4% in a week
https://www.nornickel.com/news-and-media/press-releases-and-news/the-norilsk-division-adopts-plan-to-resume-operations-at-oktiabrsky-and-taymir-mines-and-norilsk-concentrator/
Tharisa jumped 8% today
Just did a quick count and more that 10% of the companies currently issued share capital has been traded in the 118 to 130 SP range, pretty strong support here.
Just maybe need some news from the company on how they are going to expand and extend operations.
Everyone aboard? Eggsellent.
DCF is way too sensitive to assumptions about interest rates. In situations like this I take the view that the increase in the commodity price less tax is going to go pretty much, straight to the bottom line. As the results of increased commodity price is cumulative over the course of the year, the effect can catch the market unawares. Anyway, it worked for me a couple of years back with Griffin Mining when the price of Zinc was rising steadily.
Craig, it's been the case for 10 years here that selling AND buying has always been slightly skewed for anything over 50k shares at a time. The trades tell a different story. Every day this week has seen more buys than sells.
Sorry Stoodio,
I'm not sure I agree with your statement about constant buying pressure, I've not bee able to get a quote to sell all day on HL, only 69000 share, this tells me their is constant selling pressure and not enough demand to absorb it.
Hence we are down so far from the 134 high this week,
https://menafn.com/1101736114/China-Car-sales-increase-3648-percent&source=30
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/more-platinum-deficits-to-come-after-record-undersupply-in-2020-wpic
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-part-2-hedging-inflation-with-platinum-200462535
10% retracement over 2 days with constant buying pressure; buys now outweighing sells by 3:1 over the 2 days with the majority being picked up in £50-60k blocks :)
https://www.cpmgroup.com/rhodium-backs-off-30000-oz-supply-concerns-still-main-issue/
Don't look a gift horse in the mouth :)
Thank you Mr Market, thank you!
I love pullbacks on great businesses. Love it when the finance sector throws a sale! Don't you?
She's always so polite when in the ascendancy :) She never stops giving. Tickling us, then pulling back to pick up any stray passengers that may have missed the bus :)
Volume tells you all you need to know all week. Buys outstripping sells 2:1, but pulls back as a goodwill gesture to allow the slow ones to buy in :)
What's not to like?
I'm a buyer ;)
Temporarily off its highs, yet still absolutely bringing home the cheese :)
The sell down from Africa Asia has been bought into quite heavily. Expected pull back off the £1.32 high of this / last week and hopefully some decent consolidation no lower then the £1.25 mark before the next huge step up which i'm expecting to take us into the high £1.30s, low £1.40 within the next 4 weeks :)
Nothing to see here. Smoke weed and eat pancakes.
:)