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Ahfam, I'm not going to get boged down going backwards and forwards with you. However, you're right, I wasn't convinced as we entered clinic in Australia. Unfortunately, I can't read my posts that far back as LSE temporarily removed my account. Look, I don't know, as you don't if Sareum will succeed? I'm not going to sell my holding as I'm showing a large paper loss.
Looking at where we are now. No real mention of 737 - why was it handed back?, HNWIs have disappeared, SP near 1p pre reverse split (and we're in clinic), board cashing in shares at the worst possible time IMO, and in a finance agreement with RF - the future funding is a real concern to me - I didn't fully understand the implications of this when it was announced. I apperciate we've moved forward, but I'm just not as excited as you because of the points I raise above.
Multi billion pound deals just around the corner - if only you were right! At this moment in time it's all pie in the sky talk. The Brighty chap talks everything up in many different stocks across many sectors and I don't like it. That was my original point.
Just to add to my post. The absolute unicorn deal, notwithstanding a buyout, of course, would be a great deal on 737. A deal with enough upfront and near term milestones that could put 1801 and 2 through to phase 2 would keep the buyout dreams alive.
Kool, you weren't convinced when we were pre-clinical either remember this-
Ahfam3
Posted in: SAR
Posts: 3,416
Price: 97.50
No Opinion
RE: Wow16 Mar 2023 20:03
Nah Kool, it's precursor to Sealioning (uber c..womble types but worse). And as we get closer to and get to clinic and transform into a clinical stage company it will get worse.
Then as we go through ph1a, b, 2 etc. and progress through different cohorts etc. more of your type will turn up under the false pretence of balanced, reasoned debate etc, then claiming victimisation when your called out and so forth.
It's a long-term thing most are not invested and working for people or entities to short, lower entry etc. AIM is full of them and I have seen it for years on other shares boards for over 5yrs+.
Toodle pip for now.
Brighty, I'm not disputing big pharma take out smaller rivals. I just pointed out you seem very bullish with all your posts regarding different stocks in different sectors. They all have a similar tone. I'm not stalking you - you seem to pop up where I'm investing for a quick return.
With regards to my own funds invested in Sareum, I got carried away with the hype. It irritates me when others talk about billion dollar deals like it's a few quid. We'll see what happens. I'd happily average down here, but I'm not convinced at present.
OK for those on here querying the huge value that big pharma attach to new innovative drugs to add to their legacy pipelines here are just a few of the recent transactions....
Amgen purchases Horizon Therapeutics for $27.8 Billion (yes, 27.8 Billion)
Pfizer acquires Global Blood Therapeutics for $5.4Billion
Pfizer buys Biohaven Pharmaceutical for $11.6 Billion in Cash
Affinivax bought by GSK for $2.10Billion
AstraZeneca acquires CinCor Pharma for $1.8 Billion
Thermo Fisher Acquires PeproTech for $1.85 Billion
Pfizer buys Arena for £6.7 Billion
AZ pays 1 billion for KYM Bio
AZ pays $2 Billion to partner Quell Therapeutics
Lilly’s acquires Versanis for $1.925 billion
SOBiovitrum’s CTI Bio deal for $1.7 billion
Astellas buys Iveric Bio for $5.9billion
GSK's pays £1.6Billion to buy Bellus....
As you can see big pharma do pay BIG bucks for smaller rivals. If SRA737, SDC1801 and 1802 get to P1/2 then, yes, one day we could wake up to an RNS announcing something similar to the deals noted above....
Good luck, Brighty
And we all know what Sareum thinks of Tyk2-
This week we have seen evidence of the continued commercial interest in the TYK2 class following the announcement by Takeda of plans to acquire Nimbus Lakshmi Inc., a unit of Nimbus Therapeutics for an upfront consideration of US$4 billion. We believe this underscores the great potential of this class.
That Takeda deal is actually worth $6bn as it includes $2bn in sales milestones.
I also refer you to this article-
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/library/pharma-life-sciences-deals-outlook.html
"We continue to expect that deals in the $5 billion to $15 billion range will be the market sweet spot"
The Takeda Nimbus deal has set the benchmark for Tyk2 in my opinion but we are Tyk2/Jak1 and our BOD believe this to be superior.
Kool, it is the norm now.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/patient-cliffs-divestitures-and-biotechs-maturing-its-prime-time-ma-analysts
During second quarter earnings calls, many heavy-hitters—including Johnson & Johnson, Bristol Myers Squibb and Merck—expressed urgency in their quest for deals. With so many buyers in competition, sellers are finding offers that are more attractive.
“There’s been such a consistent pick up in momentum in anything above a billion [dollars]," Cody Powers, principal at ZS, said in an interview. "I think we’re back on the gravy train of where we were a couple of years ago in terms of premiums."
We just need to get to ph1b and show some efficacy in Psoriasis-
Psoriasis is an autoimmune dermatological condition affecting more than 125 million adults worldwide, with a market size for potential treatments estimated to be worth US$27.0 billion. Sareum believes that TYK2/JAK1 inhibition offers the potential for increased efficacy in psoriasis, compared with existing approved therapies.
Personally, I think 3 years is more likely, Warthog. I think there area few things to consider and we have to assume there are zero setbacks but we won't dwell on that.
License\deals - IMO, once we get a license for 1801, that will put all dreams of a takeover to rest. It will likely signal that 1802 will be licensed too, possibly to the same pharma. At this point Sareum will be a bona fide clinical-stage pharma and shareholders will have to wait for the trials to progress.
Trials - If everything goes to plan, 1801 P1b will start in 2024 which means we may not get a readout until 2025 which would put the end of P2 into 2026, maybe even 2027 for the data readout. 5 years or a clinical in human trials would be rapid by any pharma standard. But let's just dream it could happen, we would be talking 2028/29 for market approval. Forget all the I've been here 10 years rubbish, the real test started this year, 2023! and if you managed to buy in at this low rate. You saved yourself 10 years of having to come here everyday ha ha.
The good news is, once we get a license and again, assume everything goes to plan. The market cap will rise with every milestone reached. We should be nearing a billion valuation by the time 1801 is in P2, 2 billion if the trial goes well and there is an indication that it will progress into P3.
The last thing to consider is a buyout. I still think we could get a buyout offer but the window of opportunity shrinks as we get nearer a licence deal. I also think there may be an option to sell our share of 737 to make things neater.
Pfizer are making huge number of redundancies, with loads coming from R&D side of business. They will have to look to "buying in" instead of developing the drugs themselves.
I'm sorry, but you're living in dreamworld talking about billion dollar deals. IMO, it's pie in the sky and just words. You say you research brighty, but telling me about other companies that have made billion dollar deals and Tim's background is not doing it for me. Brighty, you write these type of posts in every sector all day long lol. Not sure what your agenda is, but you're not going to pull the wool over my eyes. GST, don't make me laugh :) Of course you got it spot on with ARB and made millions that's why you write on these boards all day. lol
Look under the RMM thread a bit lower 👍🏻
Or you look at it that SRA737 has been in P1/2, SDC 1801 is in P1 with SDC 1802 to follow - if progress continues successfully on all fronts, there will be exit points depending on one’s strategy in the timeline!!
".....once SRA737 / SDC 1801 / 1802 are in P1/2 trials..."
Brighty, presumably you are looking 2 years hence, if then, based upon present progress and the complete absence of any news on the progress or otherwise of 737?
Hi RMM,
No post from you for a long period of time. What do you think is going to happen in early next year?
Thank you Brighty, I ballparked between 2000 to 3000 given they have patent protection on the whole platform tech.
£5 billion+, judging on recent deals. That is approx x 15 of the current AVCT share price at £1,980 per share. It's very possible when you view the deal sizes in our sector currently. It could be much higher though. Re Sareum, I'm in the Potnak camp at £2 Billion for a takeover once SRA737 / SDC 1801 / 1802 are in P1/2 trials...
Good luck, Brighty
Https://www.labiotech.eu/in-depth/specialized-biotech-vc-firms-funding/
Brighty, out of interest (apologies to everyone else as off topic) what is your price target for Avct?
Much appreciated Brighty, great post as always 👍
Lol KoolKat15, you cheeky chappy! Most of my SAR posts are crammed with Due Diligence. See the last few Sareum posts from me>
1. JP Morgan's Q3 2023 Biopharma Licensing and Venture Report and its relevance to SRA737 and SDC1801 and 1802
2. Forthcoming patent dates between now and 2029 and the billions they are worth to big pharma and the big opportunity for Sareum.
3. Tim Mitchell’s background as the inventor of the obesity drug Oblean® (cetilistat) and his link therefore to Takeda.
I post here to share what I have gleaned from Trade publications / Journals & company briefings. As for share prices dropping rather than climbing wherever I post???? My investments are looking rather fab thank you very much. Sareum sold at x 24 from 0.35 to 8.65 in my isa. I am still a significant Sareum holder in my Sipp. I see you bought in after most LTH’s and are a bit hacked off about that. I get it but it was a 10 year investment for me. If you stay here another few years you will probably be happy, like me. Sareum still has huge potential. As for some of my other recent share successes: UPL up x 8, POS up x 10, GGP up x 14, GST up so far x 3, Avct up x 4 etc I was also an investor in ARB which went up from 6p to 243p for me (and went much higher to over 300p but I’d bailed by then) Plus the rises for two other investments in NCYT and SNG were super. Almost all of which, by the way, were held in ISAS and SIPPS.
If you want to come on here and rubbish a fellow poster get your facts right. i.e. Almost all my posts on Sareum have useful information and research that I have collated from the pharma industry. It did me rather well with Sar going up x 24 and I think it will do my very nicely - again - when SRA737 and SDC1801 and 1802 reach their next value inflection points.
Good luck, Brighty
Great, look forward to meeting you, providing there are no train strikes.............., famous last words
I agree 737 should of paid for 1801 but has not materialised and I don’t think it will by the AGM I’m still of the opinion when investors look at Sareum they see Parker as the chairman who has made bad choices and would be nice to hear what the HNWI think about their investment now . Again nothing by the AGM he goes
GLA
I still think that 737 was meant to pay for 1801 and 02. IMO that's how we got the HNWI, it's why the board were not issuing speeding tickets when we almost 10 bagged, they knew something and for whatever reason. It didn't happen. I guess we will never find out but IMO, 747 was going to be the catalyst to drive Sareum to new highs. I also think that 737 may be an intrinsic part of ongoing discussions with potential partners.
As for no delays to 1801. Not to be negative, but it will be the first time ever, if there aren't any delays. I'm not too worried as I think we will have a licence by the time any delay rears it's head.
I'll second that, they definitely know the value.
Thank you as always for your thoughts and insight RMM.
Shepster - I will!