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What is hard to understand is that the last placing was done in late December at 11p , an 80% premium to the SP at that time. They could have done it at 10p , Which was the voted nominal at that time ..
There must have been a good legal reasoning behind the choice of 11p, imo
Anyway , here we are in July and we are still talking about fund raising so my question is why did’nt Alora subscribe for more millions ?
I would think that Avion would require IMM to have a certain level of cash runway on the balance sheet, and may well have told them at the recent US meeting to make a raise if so......hence the change in the share nominal value .... getting a research coverage peddling a 37p value cedtainly assists if they then seek US investors to come in at this stage....
Financial stability with a raise would be better to cover the next 2 years..
Still possible that new partners investing for royalties share, may be the funding avenue
Cauldstream
I mentioned 20p as a possible opportunistic buyout price by Alora but I would be more than happy with 37p....in fact I would be very rich but life has thought me some hard lessons and one is don't rely on brokers valuations.
I do agree that the FDA approval of a new Phase 3 for Lupuzor will be be transformational for the company and the SP so fingers crossed for all investors here.
Like Notaflipper, I thought today'sRNS was an excellent piece of research and a timely estimation of the fair value of IMM's shares. At the present valuation of 37p that seems much more realistic than the ludicrous estimates of 20p, and lower, featured in some of this BB's poster boys. And unless one needs the money, why sell now when in a couple of years time we could be looking at a share price of at least twice as high if the P3 trial comes up trumps?
To be fair all BBs have trolls. Also many here were spiked back during the last Phase III results. And so, you do see these spiked PIs de-ramping any positives so that they can average down.
Does it make a difference to the eventual sp here, no. It is invariably just pathetic and tiresome to read, especially when it is so obvious. In our case, we do have to appreciate that we have an incredibly active one, that even will post whilst on annual leave as mentioned last week. Unfortunately, that hiatus for us both was short-lived it seems.
Back to IMM...Some great positives in the initiation note..
https://tinyurl.com/23unwzph
"Overall, at this stage, we value ImmuPharma at 37p per share."
They also explain that the current Benchmark does allow for increased monthly funding than £91.7k when the sp is higher than the benchmark of 14.67p. So now as the sp is averaging 5.5p, ImmuPharma only receives £34.4k (37.5% of £91.7k). However what TM should be really doing is pumping up the sp. For example, if the share price is 20.0p, ImmuPharma would receive £125.0k (136% of £91.7k) for that month.
Starting to feel bit positive here, like things are finally waking up. Not long more to go. Positions placed.
You inept placing crap. Placing for you in the dunce corner.
They are only getting £34k a month from the Lanstead agreement… losing near £60k a month, no more death spiral fu du g via Lanstead please Tim!!
Tim Mc when will we see this promised return on our Incartha investment no update for such a long time now. No need for a placement.
Does anyone have any update?
It will be heading higher I believe - news flow on the phase 3 progression
Looks like a placing is on the way imo I assume a 20% discount in the current market so my guess is around 4-5p, the bod need to support it this time!
All talk about Fund raises but one should not forget that overheads have been reduced and Landstead have made monthly payments in 2022 …
Funds should be sufficient for the time being , imo but one never knows for sure .
I think we should be focusing more on the pipeline and the other assets , as there are multiple opportunities for adding value , imo
The unnamed private investor who chucked in £150,000 in the recent placing may go again at 11p
as he /she appears bullish on the prospects.
Just a thought
Yep I agree Dallo they will imo need to go for a small short term private placing, the worry is that it’s at a heavy discount as the FDA decision is unknown so brokers taking the placing will be taking on some risk, I think the share price will drift down to 5p levels over the quiet summer months so if they did a small placing at 5p it would only be a 10% discount.. quite good in the current climate tbh, I would definitely be disappointed at anything below 5p but we will soon find out
Leas
A key consideration is if the company can continue without a fund raise until the FDA decision and the SP moves beyond 11p as a result of a successful outcome then Immupharma has the potential exercise of c65m
Warrants at a strike price of 11p rising over £7m from the recent placees including Alora Pharma .
So I feel that if Immupharma needs short term funds it may go for a small private placing
It will be difficult to get a larger fund raise away in these markets prior to the FDA decision.
dallo
your views mirror mine. What is holding me back at the moment is a possibility of a placing. I’m guessing each individual has different timescales on taking a successful drug forward into commercial use.
If I’m wrong then I miss a great opportunity at this price but I’m hedging my bets at the moment and not denying greed playing it’s part.
Happy for investors as long as they come away with a profit as I have done here in the past.
Derided not decided..sorry
Leas
I was decided by some here a number of months ago when I suggested the Alora Pharma Group which includes Avion and Acella might bid for Immupharma but after its recent participation in the placing at 11p
I feel Alora / Avion will make a bid if the FDA approves the new Phase 3 trial in the next few months.
Immupharma and its shareholders would imho welcome this as Immupharma needs a strong financial owner to drive the business forward.
The key question is at what price any offer will tabled
but somewhere around 20p may be acceptable but everything is predicated on a successful FDA decision.
Just my personal views.
But then there is the long term evaluation (P4) this is not going to be commercial before the year.
I have never posted my view that this trial is like the 2018 P3. That is your assumption.
I am no ‘novice’ when it comes to IMM.been invested here in the past, with all due respect I am well researched. My posts are only my opinion and thoughts based on the company’s past decisions.
I will leave you guys in peace with your own views.
Leas - We are in a different ballgame compared to the situation in the Spring of 2018 in the months the results of the last P3 trial were announced. In that period IMM has a share placing at 144p because there was excited speculation that the results would be successful (they weren't).
We are now in a different situation where Avion have submitted their proposal to the FDA on the structure of the new P3 trial including the Protocal that the only patients that will take part in the trial are those that are bio-marker positive and have been shown to react better to Lupuzor than those that have tested bio-marker negative.
I cannot believe that Avion have made their submission for a Type C meeting with the FDA without being very sure that it will meet with FDA approval. After all, they have discussed this in detail with the FDA in the preceding months.
So we are in a very different place to 2018 when awaiting the results of the P3 trial.
loadsofloll
I may be wrong but IMM do not have the luxury of time to make that gamble. I have posted before but it has always been my belief that Avion want it ALL on the cheap. I’m thinking their gamble is paying off.
Cauldstream… if you had been at the AGM you may have a different conclusion… any sensible person can look at the accounts, look at the cash burn and work out that they need funds before September it basic maths. The price they raise at is unknown but in the current market of discounted placings, why should IMM be any different, why would Avion turn down a 5p price, If the FDA didn’t give approval and IMM also had no money then the company would be out into administration so obviously they will need funds, all imo and I’m sure we will see details of any placing very soon. Last post from me now for a while as I go on holiday tomorrow, GL all
leas - on the other hand, IMM may be gambling (like many of its investors) that the FDA will approve the trial. That would likely lead to a rise in the share price, which would mean they'd dilute less with any fundraise. High stakes, but that's pharma for you.
I seem to remember that there was a RNS a couple of years ago and possibly pre Covid that they had funding (cash) until 2023.
If so it would make sense to fund raise prior to any FDA findings. TM did that just before the last P3 readout.
If they don’t then the company is sunk if the results are not expected. Not that I think the findings will be.
My view as posted at the time of the RNS is IMM will be taken out by their partners as imo their strategy has been to drag their feet knowing cash is tight. Avion, that is.
I held shares with HVIVO who had a great flu vaccine on trial but lacked the funds. Of course that was snapped up on the cheap leaving LTHs quite bitter.
Again only my opinion but as a rough guide a buyout on average is 2.5 x the company’s MC on announcement if that is the outcome.
The lack of IR with this company speaks volumes to me. A cheap buyout will serve the BoDs very well not forgetting a possibility of a new roles within any negotiations.
I will sit on the sidelines until the dust settles and perhaps miss a buying opportunity at the current MC which is crazy given the risk v reward.
There may well be ND contacts knocking about which accounts for the lack of information to investors but any silence leads to more speculation going forward.
I’m astounded that after all this anticipation the sp did not close nearer to 9p. yesterday,
Just my thoughts but good luck to all the LTHs
Lambo - your logic is very curious. It would be crazy for IMM to raise funds from a share placing at 5p when if the news is good on 29 August, they could go for a placing at 11p (or more) as they did at their earlier fund raising last December. No sensible person who holds shares wants an undue dilution through an offer of shares at an ultra low price. And IMM is extremely unlikely to wish to do so either.
I’m sure Avion wouldn’t say no to shares at 5p to bring their average down, we all know these Aim directors love a good mates rates discount, as I say if Avion and the bod take the placing even at 5p I would be happy enough with that as the price will drift towards that level over the next couple of months whilst we await news anyway imo agree that Avion should support it and it would be good to see the bod put their hands in their pockets too! Oh and no more stupid Lanstead deals