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@Putup and Anfil - regarding our discussion on Friday about the revenue numbers. I've read the rules for calculating the GKP share and I agree your numbers do tie in with the profit sharing contract.
My confusion arose from the fact they managed to increase the cash balance to $82.1m from $80m by end of August which obviously is impossible because as the RNS states averages sales was 16K bopd for August and average price of $30. I recommend listening of the retail investor presentation from 34 minutes onwards , you will note that GKP have actually not paid KRG their share off the money as yet and this could explain the increase in the cash balance. It looks like while GKP are selling in the local market they are intending to keep the KRG share as well and offset against the $150m owed.
ATB to all shareholders.
& there we go Armas whining like a b**ch again. Take some bloody responsibility for your own decisions. Who made you buy GKP? Why didn't you sell at 165p? Whose fault is that? You held on out of greed.
The shares could go to zero - will you be bleating again in a few months that you could have sold at 90p?
Grow some balls. If you can't handle it sell up.
There are far more important things going on in the world than GKP!
Again no one forced you to invest in GKP. Thousands of companies out there.
Time to get ready for school now....
Nvidia started the year around $100, now $500
Closer to home Centrica has gone from 100p to 150p in 2-3 months
3 share tips for you, all trading at mid single digit P/E's with growth potential and relatively defensive.
Viatris
Pan African Resources
Gemfields
DIVERSIFY
Not saying sell, I will be holding.
But I definitely agree this is way underpriced, and IF, capital IF I had sold at 1.65, I would repurchase my original holding. So what the crap traders here call whinging, is realising I lost a massive obvious profit take at 1.65 to 1.85
No competition there J dog, hung like a horse here wink
I have been back and forth today as to wether to sell tomorrow .. after 8/9 years .. I don’t want to but March was a long stretch till now !!
92 gbx seems like steal when the fair value is £1.46 (Simply Wall St)
- 1 year of revenue/cash to keep going
- selling 23kbpd
- oil price going up
- winter is coming
- near the bottom
There is a risk and to me they have 1 year to fix it.
Hopefully I can buy Tomorrow at this price.
Ha just like the old days, 2 avatars arguing over who has the biggest c#@k.
And whining you say? We have had the pipeline closed and no back payments for a year. If you are not whining all it says is how much of a plonker you are. I'm also interested in how long you have been invested here because I have been invested here since 2009.
Murder you prat, are you comparing yourself to a hedge fund manager? And are you comparing your portfolio to a hedge fund portfolio? You sound like an idiot. How much is in your portfolio? Spread over 30 or 40 stocks he says
The $6/bbl assertion is just out there - it has not, to the best of my knowledge, been confirmed in any way by any responsible party.
Furthermore, again to the best of my knowwledge, what exactly the $6/bbl refers to has not been stated: does it refer to the Total Revenue(s) per bbl to be returned by the revised contract? Or does it refer only to the Production Revenue/bbl excluding any return of Development- or Capex?
$6/bbl for what we would call Profit Oil is an excellent rate of return when considering Brent at ca $100. I believe Total managed, after a very long battle and threats to exit Iraq, almost $5/bbl at the end of the day? That, however, is with an enormous project involving many Billions and spread over many years. We have no projects like that at present in KRI.
In addition to a lower $/bbl production revenue (PO), the other real challenge facing the KRI OilCos is the (proposed) change to the rate of payment of incurred Development- and Capex sums. The KRI terms are seen as being too generous and return far too much of the Windfall effect (high crude prices) to the contractors, far too quickly - that will change. That rate of return will almost certainly be tied (indexed in some dynamic manner) to a new crude reference rate.
Good luck relying on a UK court ruling that Iraq contract revisions will be illegal.
Obviously disappointed that the saga of the closed pipeline continues but taking the emotion out of things (which is hard to do having suffered more downs than ups during my time being invested in GKP quite a few years now) when we look at the facts in front of us there is clearly an overreaction in my opinion with the SP. My reasons are as follows:
- Scaremongering regarding GKP as an ongoing concern, they have no debt, positive FCF and a cash balance 80m+
- Previously we have held a 4.5bn yes billion valuation when we didn’t have a proven field, had lots of debt and no route to market.
- We are now debt free, proven reserves (albeit we have less fields and had to for the privilege of handing them back)
- We have over 80m in the bank and are currently covering the monthly costs including maintenance from local sales
- Both Turkey and Iraq are losing money currently which will at some point bring them together to reach a conclusion
- We are owed in excess of 150m
So yes not too comfortable watching and holding but if we look at the bigger picture I believe JH has done a good job since taking over from JF (god help us if he was still in charge).
Once this is resolved we should be in a much stronger position and then gradually start to get to the valuation levels that are merited given the potential returns Shaikan can deliver for many years to come.
GLA
Believe what you want.
Proper investors and hedge fund managers hold core positions in 30-40 stocks.
You have been crying and whining like a baby on this board for months now.
Are you back at school tomorrow?
Hopefully it takes your mind off GKP!
Murder you're welcome to keep your investment 'tips' to yourself.
1 percent of your portfolio indeed.
Ie you make nothing if it goes up and lose nothing if it goes down. Some investor ha ha
This is indeed a very disappointing situation.
A company that produced 50,000+ BOPD, got paid on time & with GKP's cost of production & reserves in a stable environment would be worth many multiples of today's market cap.
Unfortunately that is not the case & therefore makes GKP a high risk - potentially high reward gamble.
If (a big if) the many hurdles can be overcome then GKP could have an excellent future.
If the local sales are maintained at the current levels & payment is received in advance then it would appear that GKP has enough cash to survive indefinitely.
It is also understandable that the company cannot give any reassurance about the continuance of the local sales as these are obviously being made on an ad hoc basis and could stop at any time.
How long it will take for everything to be resolved, if ever, is the significant unknown & massive risk.
I expect there will be a few more 'bumps in the road' before everything becomes clear.
Hopefully the potential benefits to all will drive a sensible resolution but it could take a considerable time.
Very frustrating.
Armas how much/what % do you have invested here?
Diversification is key.
GKP is a little more than 1% of my portfolio. We all knew the risks and yes upside could be huge but the country is run by incompetent obtuse clowns.
This is truly a miserable state of affairs. At least they had the 'soon' articles to tide us over in April, May, and June... now it's the reality... fact is even the local sales can in no way be relied on.
This really has gone worst case scenario direction.
Long gone June 9th 2022.
Correct banter…. any of the trucks which dare to fill with oil are either subject to Erdogan or Bar-z control - so the famillies win as usual.
As if buying the oil at a knockdown $30/bbl then trucking it out to sell it for at least double that wasn’t enough !
Question is - how will they engineering things so they can avoid paying us anything this time round too ?
Watch and learn……
Correction: persuaded not peuaded
Could be a long shot. But, if a long-term agreement is made between the Kerbala refinery and the KRG to buy Shaikan crude at a fair price, with the conscent of SOMO, then the pipeline issue becomes immaterial!
The Kerbala Province local government is powerfull enough, I think, to lobby the FGI to approve such an agreement. They have very influential politicians such as Maliki who could be peuaded with the idea if presented with a big enough tin of biscuits! And they may have worked before to push through the Kerbala Airport as well as the Kerbala Refinery projects!🙃
Have I let my imagination run too wild? 😵💫
Best regards ValueS
Perhaps.but divide and conquer might not work if the oil companies are run by men who.have integrity and worked themselves into those positions and if they are not.naive enough to fall for such strategies. I think the CEOs of all the oil companies know what the KRG are like and should not let those corrupt tactics get the better of them.
...nice Bon mot!
What about "...divide or concur"?
How about, “ How strong an alliance is APIKUR, is it open to a divide and conquer strategy?, for that last bit? :)
The pipeline will open or remain closed.
The T&Cs under which the IOCs are prepared to export will either be met or they won’t.
Four combinations but not necessarily 25% probability attached to each :)
Pipeline closed and T&Cs not agreed, outcome is no exports.
Pipeline closed but T&Cs agreed, outcome is no exports.
Pipeline open but T&Cs not agreed, outcome is no exports according to that latest APIKUR statement.
Pipeline open and T&Cs agreed, outcome is exports restart.
So whilst opening the pipeline is a necessary condition for exports to restart, it is not sufficient, the APIKUR T&Cs must be met as well.
Who would benefit politically from the opening of the pipeline knowing there would be no exports, by blocking any move to accept those T&Cs?
Have APIKUR drawn up a list of red lines, if the KRG or FGI cross any one of them it’s an automatic response - arbitration?!
If the pipeline does open and the IOCs refuse to produce for export, will the FGI play the illegal card and instruct local buyers to stop trading with them?
How strong an alliance is APIKUR, is it open to a divide and concur strategy?
Oil is 80% of the Kurdistan economy so this pipeline has to reopen. APIKUR also need guarantees they.will get paid so this could be worth the wait.