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We have taken a leap of faith by holding on. Next week will reveal the outcome of our decisions.
GLA
Wishing everyone well on our new chapter.
Fortune favours the brave, let’s hope they
are right.
GLA
back under 26p now. buys on the order book are not always real buys..
big buys in the order book
Sorry. I meant to add that I fully agree with your view of long term underlying value of Harbour and I absolutely believe the shares will be north of 40p by Q3 even if oil stays at or around $60pb. My hypothesis us that there is going to be a short term disconnect between price and value driven by the need to clear the creditor share overhang.
My goal is to hold my equity position for 12-18 months and trade the volatility in April / May.
Pearls
I beg to differ. The debt holders as you state will receive 3 billion plus shares on Monday and it is these creditor shares which will create the overhang. They will be selling them as quickly as they can. These 3 billion shares will need to move from the debt holders to institutional long term investors before trading stabilises. Many of the debt holders are dedicated investors in distressed debt and they will no want to or be allowed to hold equity, other than fir a short period. There will be lots of off market matchmaking going on at the moment to try and place these shares with institutional holders.
There is no agreement with Shorts in the prospectus ( I think you are getting confused with warrants and debt for equity conversion) and indeed the shorts have risen from 120m at time prospectus to 170m as of today. The daily reporting of short positions is a requirement of FCA and failure to do so results in multi-million £ fines - Ask ARCM. Movements in shorts are reported each day (although with a small time lag) and are public record. Please take a look and you can see the daily increases over the last few weeks. The last increase was on Wednesday of this week but we will not see Thursday or Fridays movement until next week.
My hypothesis is that the creditor share overhang will create extreme volatility over first couple of months . Let’s carry forward this conversation to end of April and if I am wrong I will acknowledge my incorrect analysis. If I am right, I will be booking my much needed summer vacation.
really? looking ok so far. WTI $61 bang on as i type. lets see.
What will make the stock rally sharply from 1st April is not some large overhang of stock, but instead the changed position of Harbour vis-à-vis PMO. Harbour is a different animal entirely. Many investors will now be focusing on dividend flows for example. There may be a small number of new equity holders who want to sell their positions but I really do not see this as being a large number, if anything it will the lack of stock on the market for such a larger group that will drive the price higher, plus much better visibility on earnings and debt. Add to this a world recovery and an increasing price of oil plus assistance in this regard from the ongong Suez Canal fiasco, and I can easily see POO hitting $70 soon. In turn that will lead Harbour to rise, I am sure we will see 40p+ shortly.
Looks to be a golden period coming up for PMO shareholders.
You need to stop post DBNO, your predictions are terrible.
Stevo12, I have to admit your reading of things is wrong. The Company will be obviously much bigger on 1st April, but there won't suddenly be billions of shares hitting the market whatsoever. They're all allocated already to the various holders of debt etc as per the prospectus. This was done and agreed in February. The period of suspension is to allow all those non equity positions to be converted into equity positions, but there won't be any shares left over. They're all allocated already. The current shareholders in PMO will represent just 5% of the overall company, we will also represent the main part of the company that is available to purchase from 1st April onwards as ours are all free floating stock.
Previously you have commented on large amounts of short positions, but those are not actually kept that well up to date by those websites and you will find many are now just wrong. Turnover for today is remarkably low given your comments that it is the last day for creditors to pre-sell their shares. In fact such decisions were made last month when they all agreed in a binding decision, to sell their short positions. It was that decision back then that led the shares to then rise to 31p. The shares have fallen back in recent weeks not because of increased short positions, but because a number of investors were selling as the POO dropped. Their sales were automated. Proof of this is in the list of trading done each day, many of which were AT - automatic trades - which happen when the computer says sell or buy following a pre-programmed order. For this stock many of these were / are tied to POO which has been very rocky lately.
oil price looks perky. i think $61 may be the ceiling. this for WTI price.
Reminds me of the old days when I was being chased around the office by horny traders looking for a quick grope. Did not like it then, but miss it now. I’ll ask hubby if he is up for a short squeeze this afternoon but he looks busy cutting the garden.
However if you meant PMO shorts closing - sorry you are going to have to wait until next week. Share moving up with general market sentiment - Even BP up 3%+
Short squeeze coming?
Thanks Rocky. So no way to differentiate between normal buy and sells and shorts opening and closing?
This afternoon is the last chance for creditors to pre-sell their shares. The question Is will they settle for today’s price or wait for next week and hope that there is a bounce on Wednesday morning. PMO is currently moving in line with other Oil companies so currently all quiet on Western Front.
The only driver for a big increase this afternoon is a macro event such as a major hike in Oil Price. There will be billions of shares to buy on Wednesday onwards so no Big buyers will step in this afternoon. No shorts will close to drive price.
In my view, the major risk for the rest of day is a downward price movement as a result of more pre-selling of creditor shares.
Should I hold or sell??
Could be a rush going into close, expecting the volume to explode this afternoon
i think we will close north of 29p ... thats a call for you
Im expecting a load or dump at the end of today for the SP. What is the general consensus? I'm going large uptick towards the close....not massive though. PI speculation before IIs start next week.
i use the order book stevo as it happens, most mm hide the big trades in a series of smaller trades im over simplifying it but you can see the unwind of shares pmo up 4.5% and it looks like it will push on up
ARCM didn't disclose their short position before the takeover was announced, the FCA fined them for it but the tiny fine wasn't even worth looking at so why would they disclose now ?
Rocky.
Serious question. I have been looking at various ways to track shorting activity, both increases and decreases and would be interested to understand how you are seeing PMO shorts being closed. I have tried to look at trading patterns and quantum of buys and sells but really difficult to see whether driven by shorts being opened ( volume of shares being sold) or being closed through share purchase or just normal buying and selling activity.
Would genuinely like to know whether you have another way of tracking short positions other than through the FCA required reporting. Always looking to learn.
Good to hear Rocky - hate to see PI’s getting creamed.
Price is 'stuck'. Something afoot.
started and 20k read the blurb ive banked £5650 profit in premier in the last 30 days