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is the **** going to drop out of this when we go ex dividend. it looks like it's getting ready to.
Genuinely an interesting development in the world of Russian O&G assets. I think the crux here is the payment is in roubles and Shell will have to eat any FX to get them back into USD. Also this has been sanctioned by the russian gov, so there genuinely isn't anything US/UK or the EU can do about the transaction itself. Shell will just turn around and say well this was a russian govt idea and we had nothing to do with it.
This seems to be much more a banking conundrum than an asset sale question - how will Shell get the roubles out of a Russian bank account? Will Putin allow them to transfer the funds out of Russia? Will western governments allow them to onshore the cash without heavily penalizing it? I highly doubt it.
Not sure what it means for bp-rosneft stake however, which is a sizable chunk bigger than a stake in an oilfield. Gazprom can eat a $1bn charge many times over, but can it eat a $12-$13bn charge to buyout bp at a time where putin needs cash for his maniac war? I'm not so sure.
So what's going on in the world of BP to cause this 7p down turn. Thought we had turned a corner and were on the up. Oil price is only slightly down today
Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bullish-Sentiment-Brings-90-Oil-Within-Reach.html
So SHEL is morally owed USD1b !! The idea of 'forcing' Western businesses to abandon their Russian assets was partly to weaken Russia, having an extra USD1b is hardly weakening it !! Also, these asset amounts should be released from Frozen Russian Bank A/C balances and used for Ukraine's war effort or compensated to SHEL and others who have lost because of the West's pressure on them to abandon the assets. Hunt and EU haven't taken these asset losses into A/C within their EPL and Energy taxes.
Libya Gets Ready for Government Turmoil. Libya’s government watchdog has temporarily suspended oil minister Mohamed Aoun, representing the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, for alleged legal violations, several months after he called for the removal of NOC head Bengdara.
Sudan Oil Production Stuck as War Rages On. The war between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary has forced Khartoum to declare a force majeure on pipeline deliveries to Port Sudan, blocking some 150,000 b/d of oil production from South Sudan.
Exxon Calls for Lower Prices to Make SAF Work. According to ExxonMobil, costs are the main obstacle to ramping up production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as biofuel from used cooking oil or agricultural waste is 5 times more expensive than kerosene, limiting its investment appeal.
US Natural Gas Rig Count Drops to Two-Year Low. With US natural gas prices down 34% so far in 2024, the number of active gas rigs operating across the United States dropped to 112 as per Baker Hughes, the lowest number since January 2022 as Haynesville drillers keep on curbing activity.
Pemex Keeps on Failing Its Methane Pledges. Despite a damning report from the UNEP calling for immediate readjustments at Pemex’s Zaap-C offshore platform, satellite imagery shows it is still flaring 300 MCf per day of methane, with media reports indicating the Mexican oil firm is aware of what it would take to mitigate that but does nothing.
Copper Stock Surge to Dent Price Rally. Shanghai Futures Exchange-managed copper stocks have soared to more than 285,000 metric tonnes, the strongest inventory build-up since the COVID-ridden year of 2020 and a sevenfold increase since the beginning of this year, capping the price rally.
US Urges Ukraine to Stop Striking Russia Refineries. According to the FT, the Biden administration is urging Ukraine to halt drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, on the heels of several refinery attacks in March, warning that they risk retaliation and ratcheting up global energy prices.
Chinese Disclosure Sheds Light on Exxon’s Huge Find. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has been reticent about the size of its Guyanese discoveries, although project partner CNOOC in its 2023 results presentation said their recent Lancetfish discovery holds 730 million barrels.
Goldman Sees Hope for Commodities in 2024. US investment bank Goldman Sachs believes commodities may return 15% over 2024 as central banks start cutting interest rates, emphasizing that gains wouldn’t be universal and that copper, aluminum, gold, and oil products will lead the way.
Russia to Prioritize Gazprom over Novatek. The Russian government greenlighted selling Shell’s (LON:SHEL) 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 offshore project to state-controlled Gazprom for $1.03 billion instead of private LNG-focused producer Novatek, raising the former’s shareholding to 77.5%.
Court Suspends US Climate Disclosure Mand
- Long positions held by hedge funds and other money managers have seen the strongest influx of bullish interest since September 2023, indicating the market believes geopolitical pressures will keep on pushing oil prices higher.
- Net long positions held in Nymex WTI rose by 50 million barrels in the week ending March 19, whilst ICE Brent net longs increased by almost 55 million barrels, the biggest positioning move of the year so far.
- With physically deliverable Nymex WTI being the riskier financial instrument to bet on, ICE Brent has seen its net length soar to the highest level since March 2023, coming in at 289 million barrels (combined with the period a year ago, short positions have tripled in size to 70 million barrels).
- Proving that oil is becoming fashionable again amidst Middle Eastern conflict and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, the combined open interest of WTI and Brent now stands at 518 million barrels equivalent, up 14% since the beginning of this year.
Market Movers
- French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) restarted production at Denmark’s Tyra offshore gas field after an almost 4-year-long major redevelopment project, aiming to produce 5.7 MCm per day.
- China’s largest listed miner Zijin Mining (SHA:601899) has signaled that its global expansion will be slowed down by increased US efforts to limit China’s clout in the mining industry, despite already owning copper and gold mines from Canada to Africa.
- Colombia’s oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) was awarded 19.9% of US infrastructure firm McDermott, ending a prolonged legal dispute that started in 2016 when it sued the latter for doubling construction costs during a refinery modernization.
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Brent prices continue to hover around $87 per barrel, with the recent rally consolidated by Russia doubling down on its OPEC+ production cuts, the US dollar continuing to weaken, and any semblance of an Israel-Palestine truce being off the cards right now. With Brent futures seeing signs of a stellar golden cross pattern developing, it might only take one bullish piece of news for $90 per barrel to happen.
Kurdish Production Sees No Light at the End of Tunnel. One year since the shutdown of Kurdish oil flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, Iraq is yet to find common ground with oil companies operating in the separatist region, with Baghdad seeking to revise production terms and rights.
US Expedites SPR Crude Replenishments. The Biden administration has shifted from its usual 3 million barrel per month solicitations and announced two additional purchases of strategic crude stocks, aiming for 4.75 million barrels in August and 4.5 million barrels in September.
OK Thanks Brave64
JSB - You don't need to sell, it's just a pattern with BP when approaching divi they rise, and drop after.
Https://www.bp.com/en_us/united-states/home/who-we-are/us-impact-report.html
Supermarket giant Asda has switched off the majority of its electric vehicle charging points, with more than 100 shut in the last year.
Data from the RAC found that Asda was the only major supermarket to cut down on the number of charging devices in 2023.
In 2022, there were 165 chargers at Asda locations around the UK. However, only 46 remained online at the end of 2023.
This represents a 72 per cent drop from the number of chargers in 2022 and an 81 per cent drop in the number of installed chargers since 2021.
It now has just 46 electric vehicle chargers at 22 stores covering just two per cent of the total number of their stores.
The move has generally been put down to the end of the partnership between bp pulse and the supermarket chain in 2023.
The subsidiary of oil giant BP manages 3,513 EV chargers across the UK, making it the fourth largest charge point operator.
It also has the third largest market share of rapid and ultra-rapid chargers, falling just behind InstaVolt and Tesla Supercharger, with 1,225 devices.
An Asda spokesperson told the PA news agency: “Our operating agreement with bp pulse came to an end in October last year.
“These EV charging points remain on site with clear signage to indicate to customers that the equipment is currently not in use, whilst we review our options.”
According to the latest data from Zapmap, there are 57,290 electric vehicle charging stations across the UK with 32,575 different locations.
This represents a 47 per cent increase in the number of chargers since February 2023, with almost 2,000 new chargers installed last month.
In November, the owners of Asda unveiled their intentions to buy Tesla’s ultra-fast EV charging units, with EG Group saying they would be branded as “evpoint”.
The company said it aims to boost the number of chargers it operates from 600 to over 20,000, with owners Zuber and Mohsin Issa supporting the move.
The RAC research found that all other major supermarkets had increased the number of EV chargers at their sites with a 59 per cent jump.
Tesco remains the leader in EV-friendly facilities with 1,305 chargers, followed by 413 chargers at Morrisons supermarkets, 346 at Lidl and 199 at Aldi and Waitrose.
Oh dear, I thought we were supposed to be increasing these charging points ?
Is it down to this, why sell before the 28th.
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/03/25/london-stock-exchange-will-start-market-for-bitcoin-and-ether-etns-may-28/
Bitcoin & Ether.
LTI
Many thanks for your reply.
Cannot disagree with that statement
Moy
''Just curious ''
it is based on BP being undervalued
Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-refineries-targeted-by-ukraines-drones-2024-03-25/
Brent crude oil surged past $87 on Monday as Russia’s war on Ukraine increasingly focuses on attacks on energy installations, and as mediation in the Israel-Gaza conflict fails.
On Monday at 10:14 a.m. ET, Brent crude was trading at $87.16, up 2.03%, for a 1.72-cent gain on the day. The U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was trading at $82.45, up 2.26%, for a $1.82 gain on the day.
The latest rally also comes after OPEC+ said on Monday that it saw no need for any policy changes during next week’s planned Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting. In combination with geopolitical developments in the Middle East and Russia, including continuing attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in the Red Sea, analysts are eyeing tighter supply as the global economies fight off recession and the Fed sticks to its tentative plans for rate cuts this summer.
A Ukrainian drone attack over the weekend has reduced capacity at a Russian oil refinery to around half. Kyiv struck Russia’s Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara, taking out one refining unit and reducing capacity by half, Reuters reports. According to Reuters calculations, in the first quarter of this year, Ukraine attacked seven Russian refineries, taking nearly 400,000 barrels per day of capacity offline.
Russia, in turn, attacked an underground natural gas storage site in Ukraine, though supplies have not been disrupted, according to Kyiv. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest energy producer, is running at 50% capacity, forcing it to suspend electricity exports, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry.
In the Middle East, hopes are now fading, again, for a ceasefire deal as Israel continues with its assault on Gaza. Also on Monday, Goldman Sachs said commodity demand would increase this year, driven by interest rate cuts by central banks, with potential returns as high as 15%.
Ukraine only has one refinery, at Kremenchug.
Ukraine has been attacking Russian refineries and Russia has been attacking Ukrainian refineries. That’s why the price is going up.
Brave64 could you explain why we need to sell before the 28th.
LTI
“I will not be selling a single share in the very near future let alone in the next few days.”
Just curious is that sentiment based on interest rates probably peaked, and economy improving,leading to oil price possibly creeping up.
Or is it purely a bet on BP( or something else entirely)
I do agree with the sentiment
B64
''Get out before 28th ''
gin
''I think that's a good idea.''
??
I will not be selling a single share in the very near future let alone in the next few days.